I’m hearing (nice passive way to avoid who the source is) that the internal polling for Hull is even better. Now, all internal leaks should be treated skeptically. That said, there is a back story why those polls might not be the normal push polling. Hull is a stats geek and we (the statgeeks of the world) have a thing about accurate numbers. Sure, we can push numbers, but more importantly we want to know the real state of the universe. Assuming this info I’m getting is accurate (and no I haven’t analyzed the raw data–but if someone wants to send it to me with the questions I’d be happy to give it a go with the numbers embargoed until after the election!), Hull’s polls should be be both reliable and valid.
Eric Zorn is surprised.
His ads are everywhere, and many insiders and know-it-alls (I’m squarely in the latter camp) who dismissed the uncharismatic millionaire as a vain, inexperienced dilettante who had no chance with the voters must now take serious notice.
Having been down this road before myself, and having been rightly criticized–is it any more vain than the son of a party leader who was handed a statewide office at a young age? This isn’t to pick on Dan Hynes–I like him, but what is the real difference? Hull has an impressive private sector background. Others in the race did work their way up, but if we are going to criticize Hull, let’s spread it around. I am a big fan of legislative experience at lower levels of government, but neither of them have it. At least Hull knows who the hell Kjellander is and what he did.
That said, we shouldn’t be surprised. I’ll have to look it up, but I know at least in private my take is that Hull has to increase his name recognition by this time and then be ready to duke it out. Having all the money in the world helps get that name recognition. This campaign has all of the markings of Corzine’s a couple years ago except with more chaos in the race from the big candidate pool.
The bigger news for Hull, he is getting some organizational support. Over the objections of the elder Hynes, Dick Mell is set to endorse Hull at the end of the month in an event featurign Billie Jean King and also attended by Bobbie Rush and Luis Gutierrez. Mell is organized in labor and can dole out patronage jobs. This doesn’t mean Hull will win the labor vote, but it does mean he can eat into that vote at the margins and this is likely to be an election at the margins.