Are over at the Capitol Fax.
The first up story is on Obama snagging the IFT endorsement. I’d heard rumblings, but I wasn’t sure. The significance is it creates a hole for Hynes as Miller points out. But most importantly Illinois is an organization state. Organization (organ-I-zation in Hockey) wins in Illinois–it almost always has. Illinois is a state where people are bound by ties to some sort of political apparatus. Westerners and other goo-goo states have people who have moved in without any particular attachments, but the industrial midwest is overrun with attachments and nowhere as much as Illinois.
To win as a Democrat in the primary one has to have a block of votes locked up traditionally. Either you have unions (Hartigan), or party apparatus (Blagojevich), a network of activists (Netsch) or a combination of the sorts. Republicans have similar ties with the Christian Right taking up a new section of organized interest.
Candidates running as true outsiders don’t do well. Al Hofeld is the most common example, but with the exception of Pat Quinn, organization wins (and he has a very loyal base–hell if I know why).
So the common wisdom has been that Comptroller Dan Hynes has the leg up on the field because he has the best organization. He has much of the Cook County machine lining up behind him with his father pulling in a lot of chits to line up regular party support and the unions forming two of the three necessary voting blocks out of about 5 key constituencies. In a split field, that should have been enough. For many, including me, I figured this would be a cake walk election for him. Organization wins.
But the organizations change both locally and nationally. The political earthquake consuming Dick Gephardt with the apparent AFSCME and SEIU dual endorsements is hitting Hynes as well. It isn’t fatal so far, but it shows how the union landscape is changing. Hynes is locking up the industrial unions easily. But the service and teachers unions are looking around. Why? They don’t have the same interests. Industrial unions are interested in protectionism and benefits–protecting what they have already. Service and other unions are interested in health care and reaching more workers–reaching out to more people.
But what is especially damaging to Hynes in this case is the split in unions goes to the guy with what was considered the second strongest organizationally—Barack Obama. The African-American vote is between 20-25% of the Democratic primary. As such any African-American candidate has a good lock on that vote in most years. Obama has strong ties to it with downstate A-As unified and strong support from the Jacksons around Chicago. He is slightly weaker given his fight with Bobby Rush and the Joyce Washington candidacy. Bagging the IFT gives him workers around the state and more of a base.
All is not lost for Hynes by any stretch of the imagination. He has the corrupt Jerry Costello operation around Belleville with a big push to Barigevic, the current county exec, into a judgeship and elect his homegrown apprentice–the current Mayor of Belleville into the County Executive spot. He has union might in Central and Southern Illinois and he has the south side white politicos pulling out the stops. He has a statewide office and name recognition.
If organization wins, then Hull should be toast right? I’m not so sure. First, he has millions to throw at this race. Second, he is playing to the party activist core and strategically picking up bits and pieces of coalitions. When there is a split amongst African-Americans he goes after Rush and others who have a bone to pick with Obama. When Hynes downplays health care (relatively so), he goes after activists and seniors. He hits the anti-war crowd hard and takes every shot he can at Bush. Contrary to many reviews, I think his commercials show a very personable guy–something he seems to be excelling at is retail politics. Is it enough in an organization state? If the vote is split, possibly. His biggest concern has to be to not turn off the more casual voters and depress turnout through an ugly campaign. He is going to need occasional primary voters who vote off media impressions more than organizational tie and have a split field.
Maria Pappas comes in with two big upsides. First, she has name recognition around Chicago. Second she is the natural heir to the women activist vote that Dawn Clark Netsch and Moseley Braun tapped previously. She’s also likable. With good name recognition she is already taking on Hynes in early polls.
Chico should have a natural constituency in Hispanics. He does not, however. He supported Luis Guitierrez’ opponent in a Congressional cycle and Luis hasn’t forgotten. The regular Hispanic avenues are largely closed and instead he is relying on his connections in the legal and corporate world to fuel the run. It probably isn’t enough. While his fundraising is remarkably good given his position, it isn’t enough to compete against those with higher name recognition and more money.
So what does all this mean? It’s a hell of a race. Of the four with the best shots, three of them have strong organizational support and I’d bet one of them wins–though a smart campaign by Hull might overcome that. Most surprisingly, Dan Hynes is in a tough race which most didn’t expect.
So much for not much analysis.