The new Tribune/WGN poll for the U.S. Senate race was interesting. In both races, there is, despite the numbers and the spin from the camps, no clear front-runner. This was, essentially, a name-recognition poll, but for both parties, when pressed to name a preference, huge numbers of respondents (53% dems; 60% repubs) said they were undecided.
The fact that no candidate in the democratic race can claim front-runner status is probably the most important news not highlighted. The assumption for months was that Hynes was the frontrunner. This was based on his having won two state-wide offices, the endorsements of a slew of politicians, his father’s name and operation, and what all believed would be a fundraising juggernaut. But he has not been able to capitalize on these advantages.
What happened? First, hubris rarely wins races; running hard wins races. Second, the field has two, if not three, formidable candidates besides Hynes. Hull has gone from non-existent in name recognition and in voter polls, to 25% name recognition and 6% in preference. He has pulled even with Hynes in downstate polling because of intensive media and campaigning, and has gone on the air with a similar strategy to raise name recognition and preference in Chicago (and his campaigning here, which has been intensive for months, has largely been ignored by the media).
Then there’s Obama. He has done well raising money, and his 4Q numbers should be very good, given that some of Chicago’s heavyweight business leaders are stepping up to raise money for him. He is building a strong volunteer operation, and his supporters are passionate. In name recognition and preference polls he is statistically even or within shouting distance of Hynes.
For Hynes, Obama, and Chico, money will soon become a problem. Hull is set to spend at least another $14 million between now and election day in March. The shifting dynamics of the race have forced Hull’s opponents on the air early, which is very expensive. Just to compete with Hull in the Chicago market, it will cost a candidate $500,000 a week.
In addition, Hull is building a formidable field operation, using money to hire talent. Hynes, Obama, and Chico will have to do the same and faster than originally planned. But if you only have between $1 and $3 millon on hand as of this writing, your options are fairly limited. Hull has the advantage of being able to run the whole field. Hynes, Obama, and Chico have to figure out how to compete in targeted areas.