Via Capitol Fax
Raleigh, N.C. – Roland Burris is so unpopular that even as Democratic as Illinois is, he
trails Republican Congressman Mark Kirk 53-19 in a hypothetical 2010 contest, the
newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds.
Even among Democrats Burris leads only 34-27, and among independents he trails 62-8.
Of course Burris is not likely to be the Democratic nominee next year. But even with
him out of the picture Kirk looks competitive in some early match ups. He is tied 35-35
with Alexi Giannoulias and leads Jan Schakowsky 37-33.
Those numbers aren’t quite as encouraging for Republicans as they may seem to be
though. In each case only 19% of GOP voters are undecided, while more than 30% of
Democratic ones are.
“Right now there’s a lot of uncertainty among Democrats about their choices for the
Senate next year with an unpopular incumbent and candidates seemingly entering or
bowing out of the race on a daily basis,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Once they’re actually settled on a nominee next year that’s likely to change.”
Lisa Madigan, who has not shown interest in a Senate run, easily dispatches Kirk by a
margin of 49-33.
Madigan and Pat Quinn would also start out with strong advantages in the Governor’s
race. Madigan leads Bill Brady 46-27 and Quinn has a 39-32 edge. 61% of voters say
they have no opinion about Brady one way or the other.
PPP surveyed 991 Illinois voters between April 24th
and 26th. The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
General Election:
Burris 19%
Kirk 53 %
Schakowsky 33 %
Kirk 37 %
Giannoulias 35 %
Kirk 35 %
Madigan 49%
Kirk 32 %
The one thing I’ll say, I don’t think Kirk wins in a race with Madigan for Governor given these numbers. Madigan has numbers that are pretty damn amazing at this point. I don’t see how anyone beats her. I am uncomfortable with daughter father team, but it simply isn’t an issue for her and while it might be raised in a campaign, it’s not worked before and people know her better now.
Kirk’s problem–especially against Giannoulias in these numbers is that Kirk is about at the ceiling with black and hispanic voters for a Republican, but there are a quite a few undecideds in both categories. Those are likely to disproportionately go to Giannoulias or even Schakowsky with a President Obama’s endorsement. I just don’t see his winning coalition unless he can sweep all of the white voters and that’s not terribly likely given he cannot play on the wedge issues of gun and abortion.
For Kirk it is very simple. If Obama remains popular in 2010, Kirk is a loser. Why would anyone in Illinois vote to send a man to the Senate who will do nothing but oppose the President. If he campaigns as someone who will be independent of GOP orthodoxy he runs the risk of losing in the primary to someone to his right who will lose the general election by a huge margin.
The GOP will not win the Senate race in 2010 unless Obama’s popularity has dropped substantially.
These numbers at this stage are meaningless. A poll conducted in 2003 on the 2004 U.S. Senate race in Illinois would have had all the pundits reporting that State Senator Barack Obama trails the field by a large margin.
This poll has a lot to due with name recognition and the popularity of each of the potential Democratic US Senate candidates.
Burris trails Kirk by a 53-19 margin.
Burris has a 17% approval rating 62% Disapproval rating.
Among Dems- Burris leads Kirk 34-27. (Burris wins 70-30)
Among Reps- Kirk leads Burris 85-5 (Kirk wins 95-5)
Among Inds- Kirk leads Burris 62-8 (Kirk wins 75-25)
Kirk beats Burris by a 62-37 margin. Their is no chance Burris will get the Democratic Nomination.
Schakowsky trails Kirk by a 37-33 margin.
Schakowsky has a 27% approval 23% Disapproval
Among Dems- Schakowsky leads Kirk 58-9 (Schakowsky wins 90-10)
Among Reps- Kirk leads Schakowsky 76-5 (Kirk wins 95-5)
Among Inds- Kirk leads Schakowsky 39-22 (Kirk wins 60-40)
Schakowsky beats Kirk by a 52-47 margin.
Giannoulias is tied with Kirk by a 35-35 margin.
Giannoulias has a 39% approval 21% disapproval.
Among Dems- Giannoulias leads Kirk 60-9 (Giannoulias wins 90-10)
Among Reps Kirk leads Giannoulias 73-8 (Kirk wins 90-10)
Among Inds Kirks leads Giannoulias 36-25 (Kirk wins 55-45)
Giannoulias beats Kirk by a 57-42 margin.
Madigan who is likely to run for Governor leads Kirk by a 49-33 margin.
Madigan has a 64% approval 21% disapproval.
Among Dems Madigan leads Kirk 69-15 (Madigan wins 85-15)
Among Reps Kirk leads Madigan 59-24 (Kirk wins 75-25)
Among Inds Madigan leads Kirk 44-32 (Madigan wins 55-45)
Madigan beats Kirk by a 60-40 margin.
They did not poll a matchup between Dan Hynes vs Mark Kirk. Hynes is most likely to run for Attorney General or Lt Governor if Madigan decides to seek re-election as Attorney General.
Quinn is likely to run for re-election as Governor.
Madigan has plenty of options.
Runs for Governor in 2010 forces Quinn into retirement and wins.
Runs for US Senate in 2010 forces Burris into retirement and Giannoulias to drop out and seek re-election as Treasurer or run for Lt Governor and wins.
Runs for re-election as Attorney General. then in 2014- runs for US Senate assuming Durbin retires or Governor in 2018 when Quinn retires. Madigan runs for Governor in 2010. gets re-elected in 2014. in 2018 decides to step down from the Governorship. In 2020- Madigan runs for the US Senate to succeed retiring Senator Dick Durbin. Then in 2024 she runs for President.
Hynes has two options. Run for Attorney General in 2010 or run for Lt Governor if Madigan is running for Attorney General again. In 2014. Hynes runs for US Senate if Durbin decides to retire or In 2018 runs for Governor when Quinn or Madigan leave office.
Giannoulias is running for US Senate in 2010. If Madigan enters the race Giannoulias seeks re-election as Treasurer or runs for Lt Governor. In 2014 Giannoulias runs for US Senate assuming Durbin retires or In 2018 runs for Governor when Quinn is term limited.
A great compromise would be
Quinn becomes the Democratic Nominee for Governor.
Madigan becomes the Democratic Nominee for US Senate
Hynes becomes the Democratic Nominee for Attorney General
Giannoulias seeks re-election as Treasurer.
In 2014- Durbin’s seat is up for grabs- he is a potential retiree. (Hynes or Giannoulias runs the Durbin seat assuming Durbin retires.) If Durbin decides to seek re-election. Hynes and Giannoulias seek re-election to their elected offices in 2014. That brings us 2018. Quinn decides to leave the Governorship. Madigan who was elected to the US Senate in 2010,ree-elected in 2016 decides to run for Governor in 2018 wins. Giannoulias and Hynes both seek re-election to their post then run for US Senate in 2020 when Durbin retires and a special election
Since you have obviously thought well into the future, can you tell me in which year the Cubs win the series?
Kirk should investigate buying that dive shop in the Caribbean or the bar in Thailand.
If he wants to stay involved in politics in Illinois, he should chair the GOP and join a law firm.
I don’t see him having winning options. He can win his House seat one more time, but after redistricting, he’s toast.