It’s not a good time to be a Republican in Illinois
I’ve had a running debate with several good friends and people who correspond with me about the impact of a deeply unpopular President and anger at a Republican Congress on elections in Illinois. The alternative argument is that Rod will reduce that edge and somewhat even out the playing field.
I’d like to declare that I’m right on this today. Rod could still fall, though I don’t think he will and Democrats will still have a very good year in Illinois.
But the most recent Tribune poll found that even in longtime Republican-leaning regions, the GOP no longer might have the upper hand. In the collar counties, 31 percent of voters aligned themselves with Republicans while 29 percent identified with Democrats.
That’s just a stunning number. It is a very good sign for Congressional races in 6, 8, 10, and 11.
Unless the Republicans can effectively localize these races, the national trend is going to be hard to buck. Blagojevich can have relatively low popularity, but this is an election for many that is nationalized over war and corruption at the federal level. The Iraq War is deeply unpopular and that trumps more localized issues.
Kirk is on a 2-a-week mailing schedule it seems.
Haven’t seen anything but a few yard signs here and there for Seals…
The power of incumbency and a huge warchest may help Kirk dodge the Seals bullet this fall; but with his strong support for Bush over the past 6 years he shouldn’t.