2008

Presidential Race Prediction

ArchPundit November 3, 2008 No Comments

Inevitably I’ll be off on this one, but it’s all for fun.

8 % national win for Obama.

I have him at 381 -406 electoral votes depending on Georgia and Arizona.  We’ve seen slight movement towards him–really check the aggregators if you insist otherwise).  Frankly movement towards him doesn’t have to be overwhelming to end up here–it just needs to follow and then have a turnout advantage that if you look at the McCain and Palin rallies today there is all sorts of evidence for Republicans being not to excited about voting and only a percentage or two not voting makes a huge difference.

US House and Senate Predictions

ArchPundit November 3, 2008 No Comments

Senate:  Dems pick up a minimum of 8 seats.  I’m betting on 10 only because toss ups tend to flip one way in the end (see Charlie Cook’s most recent analysis on this).  7 seems solid to me and then one more is likely to fall given past history.  McConnell probably hangs on.  Bill O’Reilly’s head explodes though and goes on a rampage.

House:  This is hard to say because of the individual dynamics so I’ll say a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 30 seats with more of a likelihood of being around 23 or so.  Democrats will lose a seat unlike last cycle with at least Mahoney going down in Florida and Lampson in Texas.  Bachman loses, Murtha survives.  Madia in Minnesota loses.  Judy Baker in MO-9 pulls out a squeaker and wins.  Chris Shays loses giving Democrats complete dominance in New England in the House.

Congressional Election Predictions

ArchPundit November 3, 2008 No Comments

Seals beats Kirk.  Early voting seals a 5 point win which is far higher than anyone would have predicted a month ago.

Halvorson wins handily meaning half of my hometown is represented for the first time in my life (and a lot longer I believe) by a Democrat.

Bean & Foster win.

Manzullo suffers a closer race than expected with high Rockford turnout, but still comes away with a decent win

Roskam wins in a squeaker.

Schock wins and is a pain in my ass for years. Either spends a long time being a self-righteous Adam Putnam clone in mid GOP leadership or is stupid and runs for statewide office where he’s beaten badly.  Good shot at being head of the GOP class (small class, but still).  Roskam and him fight for being the Illinois Movement conservative in DC and hate each other.

Harper catches a wave that tosses him just barely over the finish line first.  Roskam’s district is more vulnerable, but if there is a district ripe for a surprise, it’s IL-13.

Illinois Congressional delegation after Tuesday 14-5 Democratic.  In 2002 10-9 Republican.

First Predictions Thread

ArchPundit November 3, 2008 No Comments

We’ll take the easy ones here………

Durbin at about 65%

House Dems pick up 3-5 seats (wasting a bit opportunity) losing one downstate seat in that mix

Senate Dems pick up 1 I have no guess on Forby’s race

Of the races I care about the most:   Kotowski and Hoffman go in for relatively easy wins.  Biss picks up off Coulson barely.

Mulligan wins, Javens win.  Madigan’s guys thinks 1996 campaign techniques are still genius.  In other news, Ham radios predicted to make a comeback.

Obama 62 -36 McCain.

Perhaps the Lamest Political Thing I’ve Seen

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

There are a lot of awful things in politics and such. However, this isn’t one of those things–this is one of those things that is sad it is so lame.  Christine Prochno’s campaign glued their yard signs over Mark Walker signs.  See the pics over at Illinois Reason.

This Should be the New RickRoll

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

Weird

The Negative Endorsements: Mathias & Mulligan

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

I’m probably missing a few races, but the races the House Dems deserve to lose are the ones in which they are running on Republicans voting against mandatory library filters statewide.  The ads are offensive and demagogue and issue that should be a core value for Democrats–freedom of information.

But no, the HDems with Madigan are running hard on the issue in those two races especially.  Both Javens and Austriaco claim to be beholden to no one and that is where they fail miserably.  That must mean they support mandatory library filters statewide–unless they are bowing to Madigan. Either way, it’s not pretty.  Either they believe in a statewide mandate that is likely to block information to citizens or they are a puppet.  Or both.  Neither deserves election regardless of why.

Two Votes for Political Independence

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

Dan Kotowski and Daniel Biss

One of the fundamental problems with the Illinois political system is the concentration of political money and then power through the four legislative leaders.  When leaders become to rigid, there is simply little power for the average legislator to rebel if they want to keep their seat.  Defecting from leadership means leadership can pull your money for reelection.

And that’s where Kotowski and Biss come in.  Kotowski is State Senator from the 33rd District in the Northwest burbsaround Arlington Heights and Park Ridge.  He works harder than anyone I’ve seen in Springfield and that extends beyond just being a State Senator. He works hard at raising his own money so that when he needs to buck leadership, he isn’t as beholden as other Senators.  Dan has taken two strong positions by endorsing Dick Devine in 2006 for Governor and fighting the pay raises in the Senate.  If he were solely dependent upon Emil for money, that would have been hard to do.  Oh, and he’s been fighting for better assessments in Cook County directly annoying Todd Stroger.

Daniel Biss is the guy running for Beth Coulson’s seat in the House–17th District around Evanston, Glenview, Morton Grove and Northbrook.  Biss has no support from the Speaker and thus, if successful, would be one of the few truly independent members of the House. He raised all of his own funds and did it from small donors.  He’ll have the independence to do what is right and is a truly progressive voice–there’s nothing more to ask for.

For Democrats who want strong independent voices in Illinois, these two can show the way.  Help them anyway you can.

Yes on Con-Con

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

I don’t do endorsements so much anymore–pretty much everyone knows where and why I stand where I do.

I haven’t talked much about Con-Con, however so I figured I’d chime in even though most who read the blog have probably already voted.

I don’t think Con-Con will change much–as I think the best way to fix the Illinois political scene is to alter the political fundraising laws.  That said, a Constitutional Convention can be a very positive step for Ilinois and the arguments against it are pretty much silly.   Nothing that is proposed at the Convention can pass without a vote of the people of Illinois so any radical idea won’t fly.

What might fly?  Getting rid of the flat income tax and allowing a graduated income tax.  You know, progressive taxation.  That alone is a good reason to vote for it.

Beyond that, I expect the best we would get is some tinkering and perhaps some clarifying language on amendatory vetoes and JCAR which could be very helpful.

Condolences to the Durbin Family

ArchPundit November 2, 2008 No Comments

I cannot imagine the pain of losing a child.