November 2008

Dear National Bloggers

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

It doesn’t matter what you want for the US Senate appointment in Illinois.  A lone madman has the power and it’s largely irrelevant what any of us think–in fact, pushing good candidates too hard might hurt them.
The only thing we do know?  It’s not going to be Jesse Jackson.

* This looks like another targeted leak designed to bust Jackson’s chops…

The Hill reported Blagojevich had placed calls to Chicago-area Democratic Reps. Danny Davis, Luis Guitierrez and Jan Schakowsky Tuesday and Wednesday. The Washington publication said it wasn’t clear whether the Democratic governor also had talked to Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., another Democrat who has expressed a desire to follow Obama to the Senate.

Jackson couldn’t be reached for comment, The Hill said

While Blagojevich’s office had no comment on the calls, Davis said he had “a great conversation” with the governor Wednesday afternoon. Schakowsky and Gutierrez also reportedly had upbeat talks with Blagojevich this week.

Apparently Durbin doesn’t get called back by the Governor

* The second most powerful United States Senator says he can’t get his calls returned by his own governor…
Democrat Dick Durbin, the state’s other U.S. senator, has said he wants to talk to Blagojevich about who might replace Obama. But spokesman Joe Shoemaker said Durbin’s calls to the governor haven’t been returned.
“He has not been able to talk to him. We’ve tried,” Shoemaker said.
*** UPDATE *** Lucio Guerrero responds…

Just to set the record straight: The Governor’s office reached out to Sen. Durbin’s office on Friday to check the Senator’s availability for a phone call on Monday. We have yet to hear back from them. Although some are trying to make this a big issue, the Governor will of course talk to the Senator about finding a replacement in the Senate. I am sure the two will speak in the near future, it’s just a matter of scheduling.

I’d hate to have the Senior Senator interrupt Blagojevich as he does his daily renditions of “I’m so Pretty!”

I’m breaking my rule above to push for Bill.

Fitzgerald Likely To Stick Around

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

Via Rich

Chicago Business News

Durbin told a news conference that he first wants to sit down with the city’s top federal prosecutor and ask him what he wants in the future. Asked if he would recommend that President-elect Barack Obama renominate Fitzgerald, Durbin said: “Yes.”

“I think he has done an extraordinary job as U.S. attorney; I have the greatest confidence in him,” Durbin said. “I want to do what he wants to do, I want to support what he wants to do and I won’t presume what that is.”

To make it abundantly clear to the tin foil hat brigade, Patrick Fitzgerald can stay as US Attorney as long as he wants during an Obama administration.  The only problem is does Patrick Fitzgerald want to make this one job his life’s work.  I hope he does stay on, but eventually he will want to move on professionally.  He is actually getting married and may want a life at some point.

A Political Convention at the Library

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

Only made funnier in that the Constitution Party probably isn’t a big fan of publicly funded libraries.

For those waiting on the Lauzen whack, why would I do that? It only hurts Republicans to divide their party further–more power to him.

Given the Review’s doting on Bush, it’s a bit hard to figure they’d have anything to do with the Constitution Party which rejected Alan Keyes for:

The Permanent Candidate has failed to win the nomination of the paleoconservative Constitution Party. Eric Garris reports:

Last night, CP founder Howard Phillips strongly denounced [Alan] Keyes as a warmonger, neocon, and egomaniac. Phillips was subsequently attacked by Jim Clymer, the CP national chairman.

In spite of Keyes bringing in a lot of delegates, the CP remained true to their anti-interventionist views and rejected Keyes.

The nomination instead went to the antiwar conservative Chuck Baldwin, by a vote of 383.8 to 125.7. It’s a small but satisfying victory for two noble though possibly lost causes: the movement to end the occupation of Iraq and the transideological coalition to get Alan Keyes to shut up.

I pointed out a while back that the California affiliate of the Constitution Party is the old American Independent Party, a group formed as a political vehicle for the segregationist George Wallace. Jim Antle of The American Spectator, who has done the best reporting I’ve seen on the CP race, tells me that the California delegation backed Keyes, a black man — while the party’s two black state chairs were Keyes’ leading opponents. It’s a complicated world, innit

Fun story about the Constitution Party. When they had their 1999 Convention in Saint Louis I ended up riding Metrolink with a bunch of them.  They didn’t appear to understand the contradiction.

When You Best the Third Guy 2 to 1, You Aren’t the Stalking Horse

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

Steve Rhodes rolls out the old canard that John Cullerton was a stalking horse candidate to keep Dick Simpson from winning in 1994 against Dan Rostenkowski in the primary.

The problem is….Simpson only pulled in 14 percent of the vote to about 30 percent for Cullerton and 50 percent for Rostenkowski.  Stalking horses don’t pull in more than the ‘legit’ challenger not to mention, even Cullerton and Simpson’s votes together didn’t reach 50 percent.

There’s plenty to criticize Cullerton for, but he fought a tough race in 1994 and that isn’t one of them.  The larger problem isn’t Cullerton, but that one of the better indepedendent candidates didn’t have a shot like Don Harmon.

Inexcusable

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

State behind in paying for child care subsidies

Quality child care is an important determinant of future success.  Making businesses operating on a small margin wait for their checks endangers the good providers out there who have made a go of it.

Blagojevich kills historic site funding over $2.4 million.  Seriously.

The most publicized reduction that will go forward is $2.4 million that pays for nearly three dozen employees to run 13 historic sites. The sites are to close Nov. 30.

The tourist attractions include the reconstructed log home where Abraham Lincoln lived with his father and stepmother near Charleston and the Vandalia statehouse where Lincoln served in the Legislature before the capital moved to Springfield.

Such cuts are particularly prickly because the world will commemorate the bicentennial of the 16th president’s birth in February.

Among other reductions that Blagojevich did not agree to restore: nearly $7 million for the office of Attorney General Lisa Madigan, a potential rival for Blagojevich’s seat in 2010; nearly $21 million from the budget of Secretary of State Jesse White; and $3 million from the offices of the lieutenant governor, state treasurer and auditor general, all of whom have criticized Blagojevich.

He is a small, petty, useless man.

But he hasn’t raised income taxes.

David Yepsen?

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

Seriously, SIU is thinking of getting an expert on Iowa politics to head the Simon Institute?  Or Bill Freivogel from the Post-Dispatch?

Freivogel is a decent journalist and Yepsen is quite good, but both are journalists and journalists without a whole lot of background in Illinois.  Not many people could fill MIke Lawrence’s shoes, but Turner is clearly a better choice in this case.

Who To Replace Rahm?

ArchPundit November 24, 2008 0 Comment

Hinz has a generally good look at the field here, but leaves out the guy with a $300,000 head start fundraising–Manny Flores.  He raised the money for a potential race for Guitierez’s seat and has it sitting in a federal account if he makes a go of it.

Flores appears to be serious and in a divided field would have a built in constituency and money.  I like several of the people thinking of getting in this race so I’m not pushing anyone, but ignoring Manny would be a mistake.

Lieberman is Even Bad at Chairing Homeland Security

ArchPundit November 18, 2008 0 Comment

Where were those penetrating examinations of the response to Katrina?

That’s right–they didn’t happen.

Daily Dolt: Capitulation Senate or…

ArchPundit November 18, 2008 0 Comment

who cut off Rahm Emanuel’s balls because I’m pretty sure he wasn’t feeling conciliatory towards Lieberman.

When the guys tells you he is supporting the other party–believe him.

The Lottery Goes 666

ArchPundit November 17, 2008 0 Comment

Newsweek covers it

On Nov. 5, Todd Strandberg was at his desk, fielding E-mails from around the world. As the editor and founder of RaptureReady.com, his job is to track current events and link them to biblical prophecy in hopes of maintaining his status as “the eBay of prophecy,” the best source online for predictions and calculations concerning the end of the world. Already Barack Obama had drawn the attention of apocalypse watchers after an anonymous e-mail circulated among conservative Christians in October implying that he was the Antichrist. Former “Saturday Night Live” ingénue Victoria Jackson fueled the fire when, according to news reports, she wrote on her Web site that Obama “bears traits that resemble the anti-Christ.” Now Strandberg was receiving up-to-the-minute news from his constituents in Illinois. One of the winning lottery numbers in the president-elect’s home state was 666— which, as everyone knows, is the sign of the Beast (also known as the Antichrist). “It is very eerie, and I take it for a sign as to who he really is,” wrote one of Strandberg’s correspondents..

Number of 666 picks in 2008:

4

2007 – 1

2006 – 0

2005 – 0

2004 – 1

2003 – 1

2002 – 0

2001 – 1

2000 – 1

1993 – 1999 5 (before 1993 the lottery only did  a nighttime pick and yes, I know there’s no draw on some of the Christmas’ in years past)

There are 730 drawings in the pick three game each year (732 in 2008) meaning a pick of 666 once is likely (1 in 1000 chance–0-0-0 is possible and does happen).

Over 9 years, 666 has come up 9 times, but 4 of those have been in 2008.  That means that for the 8 years prior to 2008, the 666 was picked less than one would have predicted or about 5.8 times.  Over 16 years it was picked 16 times which is greater than the probability which would be 11.68.  Over the 15 years previously the odds would be that 10.95 with 10 picks meaning it was pretty close to the average.

What does all this mean?  Nothing.  The same  as claiming Obama and a lottery pick of 666 are related.  It’s about random chance with completely independent draws that results are unlikely in any given draw, but over time they average out.  God gave you brains, use them.