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ArchPundit
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2006
New Cook Analysis
With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.
If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.
The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.
In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party’s candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.
This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.
So the Majority Watch Polling
I want to believe they are correct because they are predicting a big pickup with Dems getting 240 seats as of now, but I’m not trusting the polling.
On the positive end they have some of the biggest samples of any polling out there–especially for House elections. If I’m them and defending myself, I tell you that by reaching more voters they are getting a better picture of the year’s dynamics. The most helpful part of the polling is it gives better snapshots of sub groups as bigger samples mean smaller MoEs for those sub samples. CD even points this out on their site
That could be true, but generally polling is relatively accurate and those that diverge most from the average are usually more wrong than others.
Two key issues seem relevant here. First, do the automated calls make a difference. Generally, Rasmussen and Survey USA have done good jobs in recent elections so I don’t automatically dismiss them, but I also know we don’t fully understand the effects of automated polling on respondents.
Second, and where most polling has issues, is how they determine likely voters. In this case they do by selecting a pool of voters that are judged to be likely voters from the voter files themselves. Different screens are used by different companies. The instrument gives a quick second crosscheck that the individual is actually registered to vote in their methodology section. They also provide the response rates which is pretty good for a polling company.
The voter file step is not typical for most polling firms and I’m not sure how it affects accuracy. I can come up with a theoretical reason why it should help accuracy, but that’s ultimately an empirical question.
So I don’t have a strong conclusion to make about the Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies Majority Watch project other than to say they aren’t doing anything unreasonable, but I’m still concerned about their results because they seem to be diverging more than others in some key races.
DCCC Going into IL-10
It helps that it’s one market and this is the third race, but it’s a very good sign for Seals.
The Big Bad ILDemNet
What the hell are the editors at the Tribune doing?
Dennis Byrne is a) lying or b) so incompetent he should have someone ensuring his bodily functions are properly cleaned up after or c) both. I think everyone can guess which I think is true.
Seriously, how dumb do you have to be to claim the site was cleansed when this is what you get on a basic google search
Trying to paint Leo as some part of a dark conspiracy is hysterically funny, but not very serious. Further, Leo disputes that any e-mail was sent at all. At a minimum the Trib needs to be producing the e-mail Byrne claims to have sent.
As another hint to the editors at the Trib–since Byrne is quite clearly too stupid to get this point–the calendar function is a new fangled web thingamajib that actually, gets this, updates as time passes! It’s like magic! Even more magic if you hit the little button << that, ummmm...is the way to find all of the previous entries. BTW, the pick-up location is prominently displayed on two different calendar entries on the front calendar page right now. So essentially, a networking tool for activists on-line and off-line is a deep dark conspiracy in Byrne's mind. The "net" is literally a network and not really an organization. It started out of the Yahoo! groups for Kerry and developed into a greater site since then. It's main function is for a bunch of like minded people to coordinate where to meet and where to go and provide a calendar function for Democratic activists throughout the state. Perhaps Byrne can devote his next column to his disgust that Jack Roeser funds Peraica given Roeser lives in Kane County. To submit a letter to the editor at the Chicago Tribune, send e-mail at ctc-TribLetter@Tribune.com or fax to 312-222-2598 or write to Voice of the People, Chicago Tribune, 435 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611.
New Constituent Dynamics Polling
I was a little leery of their first round after looking through the numbers, but several of the races are closer to other polls–not all that uncommon as you get closer to election day and everyone starts to take a firmer stand for whom they’ll vote.
The big number which doesn’t match any other poll
IL-10 with a 2 point lead for Seals. I won’t go out on a limb for this set, but it’s a good sign and it means you should be in one of three places on election day IL-6, IL-8, or IL-10 and IL-11 if you are in that area–no polling on it
October 24-25 ~1000 in each District with +/-3%
IL-8 Bean 50
McSweeney 45
IL-6
Duckworth 48
Roskam 47
The Daily Herald also has a new poll out for IL-6 and IL-8
Duckworth 42
Roskam 46
Bean 42
McSweeney 39
Scheuer 8
Turnout is going to determine the likely outcome in these races with the motivation factor being even in most of the polling for Constituent Dynamics.
In Iowa news, Boswell and Braley look safe with the new poll for IA-2 putting it at 50-48 with Leach in the lead. Again, another turnout race so those who might be in that area head to David’s Loebsack’s web site to help out.
Triangulate That
The softspoken Obama, who during an appearance on Meet The Press yesterday admitted he would consider a run for the White House, openly criticized the Bush administration in front of 500 or so magazine executives during a wide-ranging, 45-minute discussion, occasionally with Remnick’s prodding. “This is the most ideologically driven administration in my memory, so obstinate in resisting facts, dissenting opinions … [They entered the White House] with a set of preconcieved notions.” Obama said. “I think this administration has done great damage to this country.””I wouldn’t fit in with this administration [because I think] actually being informed is a good basis for policy,” Obama said to laughter. “OK, that’s a low-blow.”
Obama was particularly critical of the war in Iraq. “We’ve used up so much political capital [in Iraq],” adding that it is “going to take the current military the same amount of time it took the military to recover from Vietnam.”
After some lighthearted grilling, Obama said Remnick “sounds nicer in his columns, but turns out to be somewhat of a prickly guy.”
Remnick, who at this point could be considered the President of the United States of Magazines, forced Obama to address the topic of religion. “It’s not ‘faith’ if you are absolutely certain,” Obama said, noting that he didn’t believe his lack of “faith” would hurt him a national election. “Evolution is more grounded in my experience than angels.”
Literature as George Allen Would Have It
Webb responds to the attack on his novels
Extended quotes over at Kos along with video
“Let’s start with Fields of Fire. It’s a classic novel of the Vietnam War. It’s been on the Commadante of the Marine Corps reading list for twenty years. It was the most taught piece of American literature in college courses regarding the Vietman War for many years.”
If George Allen was the standard for judging literature:
We’d know that Vonnegut is for firebombing a city
We’d know that Atwood was advocating a theocracy–who knows, maybe Allen is a fan of hers
We’d know that Scott Turow advocates wives killing their husband’s lovers
We’d know that Shakespeare is for suicide and a whole lot more
We’d know that Orwell was a fan of fascism
We’d know that Huxley was a fan of conformity
We’d know that Harper Lee was a fan of racism
We’d know that Kafka and Heller loved bureaucracy
We’d know Steinbeck was a fan of poverty
We’d know Ralph Ellison was a fan of white supremacy
We’d know Paton was pro-Apartheid
We’d know Warren really though Huey Long was a perfect individual
We’d know Stowe was an advocate for slavery
We’d know that Wright thought social inequality and racism weren’t big deals–and he advocated rape and murder
We’d know Voltaire really thinks all is for the best
But, alas, we don’t know these things. We do know that George Allen is an anti-intellectual fucktwit as are those who try and sell that story.
Russ Stewart is a Must Read
I believe the term is en fuego
For those who consider themselves to be political prognosticators, here’s a true-or-false quiz on the Nov. 7 election:
(1) Judy Baar Topinka will barely top 40 percent of the vote in the Illinois governor’s race, the worst of any Republican since Len Small got 40.7 percent in 1932.
(2) Democratic incumbent Rod Blagojevich will be re-elected with just over 45 percent of the vote, thereby setting a record for the lowest winning percentage in modern times. Democrat Edward Dunne won in 1912 with 38.1 percent, beating a Republican candidate (27.4 percent) and a Progressive candidate (26.1 percent).
(3) If Illinois had a Nevada-style ballot, which lists “None of the Above,” about a fifth of Illinois’ voters would opt for that choice.
(4) Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, simply by not yet being perceived as goofy, calculating, deceitful, arrogant, ungrateful, corrupt, phony or George’s Ryan heir — adjectives which attach to either Topinka or Blagojevich — will get the “None of the Above” vote, finishing with a remarkable 15 percent share of the vote, the highest for a third-party candidate since 1912.
(5) Blagojevich’s second-term administration will be wracked by a plethora of federal indictments and convictions of the governor’s cronies and fund-raisers, and Blagojevich himself could be indicted before his term ends in January 2011.
(6) Blagojevich will run for president in 2008.
(7) Blagojevich will be convicted of conspiracy and other federal offenses in time to join George Ryan in the federal slammer before Ryan is paroled.
If you answered “True” to the first five questions, don’t pat yourself on the back and think you’re a political genius. Instead, consider yourself able to discern the obvious. If you answered “False” to more than two, you’re likely Blagojevich contributor who is still waiting to get a return on the investment.
I excerpted a lot there, but that’s just the funny part–the analysis is on his site and you should go read it.