2005

Shipping Industry Update II

Butler Miller of Miller Barge in St. Louis offers up an update:

The ship channel allowing ships in and out of the Port of New Orleans is due to open Saturday September 3 for ships with a 35′ draft or less,
covering a good chunk of the vessels. ?This is very good news. ?Other
drafts will be handled on a case by case basis. ?The ships are ‘bunched’
meaning that a large number of ships are coming in at the same time.
Whether there will be barges to receive the goods is an open question,
see below. ?Exacerbating things is that the grain elevators have not
been unloading the barges though, so equipment is even tighter.

My estimates of sunken equipment is looking suspect. ?As I said earlier,
good information is proving hard to come by and while fifty barges may
be missing, they may just be tossed up on a levy where they or may not
be able to have future economic life. ?It is still very early to tell
how many barges are affected.

As some of you may know, this year’s harvest is not nearly as good as
last year’s. ?The drought has lowered crop yields just about across the
board. ?Barges are moving about 3% less grain this year than last. ?Last
year, it was cheaper for Northern farmers to rail their goods to the
West coast, while this year, like just about any other year, barging
grain to New Orleans has economic advantages. ?

Someone asked if this equipment is insured. ?Of course, it is, but the
question is whether the ‘equipment parking lot’, a fleet, is liable for
the damages sustained or the equipment owners bear the risk because the
‘parking lot’ owners did all a person could be expected to do. ?The best
paid lawyers in the country will be fighting it out as to which
insurance company will be writing the check. ?

His First Update Is Here

He Sent One John Wayne Dude Down Here Who Could Get Some Stuff Done

While Nagin’s radio interview is being played up as critical of the President (and it is), it’s really an equal opportunity rant towards everyone who was fucking up–with the President just being the top of the food chain. The Governor doesn’t do much better though he doesn’t single her out because of the questions.

Watching Nagin operate in the media since Monday night has been pretty amazing. As I said before, he kept one step ahead of what the next problem was going to be and would specifically lay out a course of action. and there simply was no response to his pleas.

He saw some hope even in this interview when he talks about General Honore:

RN: I said I need everything. I will tell you this, I’ll give the President some credit on this: he sent one John Wayne dude that can get some stuff done, and his name is [Lieutenant] General [Russel] Honore. And he came off the doggone chopper, and he started cussing and people started moving. And he’s getting some stuff done. They ought to give that guy — if they don’t want to give it to me, give him full authority, to get the job done and we can save some people.

May I suggest Honore as the next head of FEMA.

A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Incompetence

Feds commandeer buses and send people to the Convention Center around noon on the 1st.

12:38 P.M. – (AP): Two French Quarter hotels says federal officials have foiled their plans to hire buses to ferry guests to higher ground.

The general manager of the Astor Hotel at Astor Crowne Plaza says the hotels teamed to hire ten buses to carry some 500 guests.

But Peter Ambros says federal officials commandeered the buses, and told the guests to join thousands of other evacuees at the New Orleans convention center.

One man says he and others had paid $45 a seat for the buses, and that they were “totally stunned” when the buses never arrived. Another woman said the crowd had waited 14 hours for the buses. She says the idea of walking to the convention center scared her because of reports of looting.

The woman says it appears Louisiana officials have forgotten about tourists, and are just intent on getting their own residents out.

Michael Chertoff claims that “thousands of people at the convention center” are rumors on All Things Considered.

Brad DeLong offers up the best summation with the following

Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff claims that food and water are being provided to refugee concentrations, and that Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia:

Robert Siegel: We are hearing from our reporter, he’s on another line right now, thousands of people at the convention center in New Orleans with no food, zero.

Chertoff: As I said, I’m telling you we are getting food and water to areas where people are staging. The one about an episode like this is if you talk to someone or you get a rumor or an anecdotal version of something I think it’s dangerous to extrapolate it all over the place.

[Snip]

Robert Siegel: But Mr. Secretary when you say we shouldn’t listen to rumors. These are things coming from reporters who have not only covered many many other hurricanes, they’ve covered wars and refugee camps. These aren’t rumors, they are saying there are thousands of people there.

Chertoff: I would be–I have not heard a report of thousands of people in the convention center who don’t have food and water

Strangely, back as early as the evening of the 29th the Mayor was talking about sending people to the Convention Center (a place used as a shelter in previous hurricanes). Why do that? It’s on high ground near the primary route out of New Orleans that is still open. And it appears the Feds agreed and it was pretty much the meeting place for people not in the Superdome.

Some at the Convention Center report being sent there three days ago to await transportation out of the city. Some supplies arrived today–but much was busted up because it was thrown off the bridge–yes, that’s right, the bridge that all traffic is going in and out of is right there. In other words, there is no way to not know that the convention center has thousands of people waiting for transportation out for anyone coming in and out.

So the Secretary of Homeland Security didn’t know–perhaps he was confused.

Undersecretary of Homeland Security FEMA director Mike Brown got on both Nightline and Paula Zahn Live and proclaimed they didn’t know about the Convention Center until today.

So apparently no one in FEMA’s chain of information/command could look down from a fucking bridge or talk to the Mayor of New Orleans or even a cop or National Guard member who were sending people there. How close is the bridge? Go here for an illustration

He also made a rather pitiful attempt to blame those who stayed behind. Nevermind that many were emergency workers, infirm, trapped tourists who had cancelled flights, or too poor to get out.

Then Deputy Assclown tried to say that they were taking over from the locals after they couldn’t get answers. Fuck him. Anyone who has seen Nagin on local New Orleans feeds knows he’s been asking for very specific types of support and for since the evening of the 30th he’s been talking about problems at the staging center at the Convention Center. He has been the single most reliable soruce for identifying where people are stuck and what the priority to getting them out should lie.

There’ll be plenty of time to criticize the slow call-up of the Louisiana National Guard and the request for more help from outside the region, but right now, these guys continue to serially fuck up.

Chertoff and Brown apparently either don’t have any contact with those below them or the people below them are so incredibly fucking incompetent they aren’t telling them anything about what is actually happening.

Being wrong in a crisis is understandable, but to be wrong over several hours when 10,000 lives are at stake and not even figure out how wrong you are is a staggering level of incompetence. They were literally the last people to know, and even then insisted there was no way for them to know….

Hastert on Rebuilding: “It Doesn’t Make Sense to Me”

While many might expect me to criticize him, I think he’s got a very valid point and I’m glad he brought it up. I’m afraid he’ll be badgered for this comment even though it is a legitimate question.

That said, I’m not sure saying all of New Orleans should be abandoned, but certainly the foot print should be more manageable and the Parshishes below it should not be rebuilt.

UPDATE: I may agree with him regarding the substance of this, but he’s politically screwed up–the statement is taking on a life of its own in the news—New Orleans TV anchors just spent several minutes on it.

Are You Kidding Me?

From the BBC. I’ve stayed away from any of this until this just blew my mind:

“I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees. They did appreciate a serious storm but these levees got breached and as a result much of New Orleans is flooded and now we’re having to deal with it and will,” he said.

From the Boston Globe’s August 29th Edition (written before the hurricane hit)

For years, forecasters have warned of the nightmare scenario a big storm could bring to New Orleans, a bowl-shaped city as much as 10 feet below sea level in spots and dependent on a network of levees, canals and pumps to keep dry. It’s built between the half-mile-wide Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain, half the size of the state of Rhode Island.

Estimates have been made of tens of thousands of deaths from flooding that could turn New Orleans into a 30-foot-deep toxic lake filled with chemicals and petroleum from refineries, and waste from ruined septic systems.

Actually everyone was predicting this as a very real possibility and problem and doing it for years. With Katrina it was specifically feared. In fact, the expectation was that a direct hit would lead to far faster flooding and probably more levee breaches than we’ve seen including the Mississippi River levees.

This is a ‘better’ situation than was predicted.

I’m so absolutely baffled by this bullshit I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry.

The Barge Industry and The Harvest

Butler Miller’s, a friend in Saint Louis, family business is a barge company–Miller Barge. He graciously provided some initial thoughts on what the impact of Katrina will be on the barge industry–which is not trivial to the coming harvest.

Hurricane Katrina will have effects, immediate and longer lasting, on the shipping industryin the New Orleans area. ?For right now, with the amount of sunken equipment in the shipping channels, it is not clear when ships will be
allowed into New Orleans harbor. ?New Orleans is the major terminus of
grain export in this country, and without ships coming in, no goods can
be delivered for barges to receive, and, with harvest upon us, grain
elevators will quickly reach their storage capacity and loaded the
barges may be sitting for a while, sucking up time that the barges could
have been delivering goods to other areas.. ?

Getting reliable information about marine equipment is still difficult
because a lot the industry workers have their homes and lives to tend
to. ?I have to rely on news footage, thinking ‘that barge could be ours
floating through that neighborhood’ because I just don’t know where all
of the equipment is. ?Initial estimates have at least fifty barges sunk,
with many, see above, unaccounted for. ?

Looking a little longer range, it is not clear what infrastructure may
have been destroyed by Katrina. ?Other ports like Lake Charles, LA,
Galveston, TX and Houston are understandably looking to ‘help’ in this
turbulent time. ?While the city of New Orleans itself, I believe, is
changed forever, I do believe that New Orleans as a port can comeback.
Remember, it was Lake Ponchartain that broke the levees not the Mighty
Miss, as the Mississippi River is sometimes called. ?

As a quick update: Transportation rates are going up, both due to fuel price increases and the tragedy in New Orleans with some in the industry for 30 years saying it’s the highest ever. This is depressing grain prices, which hurts farmers already reeling from a horrible year to due to drought.