March 2005

The Deal Breaker

IlPundit has two excellent pieces up. The first compares Alan Dixon’s decision to support Clarence Thomas and how that led to him losing the primary and compares that to Joe Lieberman’s flirting with supporting private accounts.

As IlPundit points out, such a move could motivate a primary challenger and I’ve got $25 for the first challenger if he were to seek out a compromise that significantly changed the system. Joe has backed off, not backed off and generally given a clear example of how Joemomentum doesn’t help when you are chasing your own tail.

Moynihan had serious discussions about add on accounts which I find less problematic, but probably pointless. Why should the government be involve din such a process is my primary question. We have add on accounts in the form of 401k plans or the Thrift Savings Plan in the federal government. Expanding the option for private investments for retirement seems uncontroversial to me. Making it easier to be offered through small businesses or the self-employed seems like a prudent choice. That still leaves the question open as to why should the government make it a part of Social Security?

The biggest question is why should we increase government involvement in investing other than to encourage it? The Democrats need to focus on the issue of security on this issue, but a not insignificant issue of the idea of government investing is why would we want the government to be involved in investment decisions? And every plan under consideration including the President’s non-plan increases government involvement in how to invest, not just setting the rules of the game to keep investing decisions fair–i.e. correcting information assymetries.

Eliot Spitzer is looking to become Governor of New York, but it would seem to me that he is the perfect spokesperson for such a message. The issue is one of keeping markets free and fair and government favoritism towards investment decisions warps the market. Even an investment in a broad index fund sends investment dollars broadly instead of into specific decisions about how to best invest for a return. The Bush effort appears to be based on a telling people they can control their own money and then taking that control away for government judgement. I see no way in which that makes the financial markets better, though certainly the financial industry does better.

Illinois Chamber Doesn’t Understand It’s Own Arguments

The Illinois Chamber of Commerce is taking Obama to task for being against the Clear Skies Bill

s Senator Obama Seeing Purple?

Protecting Our Environment, While Balancing our Energy Needs

Last year, candidate Barack Obama gave what will long be remembered as one
of the great convention speeches. ?He spoke passionately about the need to
remove labels like “red” and “blue” states. ?He challenged all of us to build and
work toward consensus solutions to the public policy questions that face us as a
nation. ?In essence, he argued that seeking common ground means seeing
purple. ?

An important question in search of a “purple solution” is how do we achieve
higher air quality standards, without adversely impacting the price of electricity
and the economy? ?Regardless of political party, everyone wants to breathe
cleaner air and have affordable electricity powering a growing economy. ?These
two goals aren’t mutually exclusive and President Bush’s Clear Skies Initiative is
that “purple solution.” ?

This year, Senator Obama has a pivotal vote on Clear Skies legislation when it
comes before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.

America’s air has become markedly cleaner in the 35 years since the Clean Air
Act was passed in 1970. We will continue to do more to improve air quality;
however, we need to consider the most efficient and productive way to achieve
the desired result. ?Existing law is now a tangle of overlapping and sometimes
conflicting regulations that fail to provide consistency, clarity or certainty. This
inefficient process makes achieving cleaner air more complicated and costlier
than ever, delaying improvements in air quality, and costing Illinois valuable jobs.

Clear Skies provides a more reasonable approach. It requires significant
emissions reductions from power plants. Specifically, three air pollutants ? sulfur
dioxide, nitrogen oxide and mercury ? will be reduced 70 percent from 2002
levels by 2018, or sooner.

Power plants across the country will have to spend billions of dollars to comply. ?
However, Clear Skies will put in place a coordinated, national plan to
simultaneously reduce these three air pollutants instead of separate, overlapping
measures to address each pollutant. This plan will be far more efficient and far
less expensive than disparate regulations that will have to be implemented
piecemeal by each state and each power company.

Clear Skies will lock in dramatic emission reductions today and provide power
companies with a clear timeline and greater flexibility in determining how to
coordinate the unprecedented capital investments necessary to meet these
emission caps. Utilities will be able to focus resources on multi-pollutant control
technologies and strategies that will achieve these major emission reductions at
the lowest possible cost.

Clear Skies also will ensure that coal, an important abundant resource and
economic driver in Southern Illinois, will continue to play a cleaner role in future
electricity generation.

Clear Skies isn’t one-sided. ?It will not be inexpensive, nor will it be easy to
implement. In fact, achievement of the nationwide reductions called for in Clear
Skies will require the largest single industry investment in air pollution controls in
the history of our country. ?While Clear Skies might not offer everything to those
who argue for even more immediate stringent air quality standards, the
legislation can’t be dismissed as having trivial impact on air quality. ?It is a
compromise, which it must be for passage. The advantages of Clear Skies’
sensible approach ? clean air, achievable deadlines, and at an affordable cost ?
seem like a very “purple policy.”

This is a perfect opportunity for Senator Obama to demonstrate that as an office
holder he intends to use his influence to promote compromise and find political
value in the constructive progress that may be achieved in pursuing the color
purple.

By Douglas L. Whitley
President &?CEO
Illinois State Chamber of Commerce
312-983-7100

Contact:
Margaret Kearney
312-251-9913

Readers here should be able to identify the problems, but I’ll recap:

====An important question in search of a “purple solution” is how do we achieve higher air quality standards, without adversely impacting the price of electricity and the economy?

The misrepresentation above implies that this bill will improve air quality at the same rate as other solutions including the current CAA and can do it at a better price.

I, unlike many environmentalists, prefer market incentives to achieve the same goal–a level of air that is healthy. In this case, you should set the standard of air quality you expect to get to and then choose the most efficient way to get there. What the administration and the Illinois Chamber is promoting is a poorly designed market system that has lower air quality goals than current law would produce. That’s a far different thing than saying we get the same rate of air quality improvement cheaper.

===Clear Skies also will ensure that coal, an important abundant resource and
economic driver in Southern Illinois, will continue to play a cleaner role in future
electricity generation.

Except this isn’t true. The Administration claims two things.

1) The bill will make reaching air quality goals cheaper by reducing costs through market incentives. This relies on the assumption that there may be more efficient systems other than Best Available Technology or MACT Most Achievable Control Technology. I think rightly, there are many times you can get to the same level of environmental protection cheaper than a one-size fits all solution by allowing relatively simple low technology answers to emissions.

2) The bill will promote the use of Southern Illinois coal. The specific wording above is cheeky because it doesn’t explicitly say Southern Illinois coal will do better. Southern Illinois coal is high sulfur and to be burnt requires expensive initial investment in scrubbers and/or Selective Catalytic Reducation.

Under a permit system, unless it forces extremely low emissions (and Clear SKies doesn’t–see below), expensive capital investments are discouraged in favor of low tech and inexpensive changes that reduce emissions the cheapest way possible. Given Southern Illinois coal requires significant capital investment to burn, it’s likely to be disadvantaged under such a system.

There is no point to a permit system if the caps are so low they force the adoption of specific solutions to a emssion problem. At that point a BAT solution is just as cheap and may even be better in terms of providing faster economies of scale for the technology.

You can’t reasonably argue that the implementation will be cheaper and the best technology available will be utilized. It’s logically inconsistent as to why one adopts a tradeable permit system.

My personal views tend towards not worrying about sustaining industries in areas like Southern Illinois that in the long term are probably unsustainable anyway and concentrating on reaching the lowest cost to the environmental standard we choose to reach, but I’m not an Illinois politician facing a lot of workers who feel their jobs are in jeopardy. Given the twin objectives of reducing pollution and maintaining Southern Illinois coal jobs, a command and control policy as is currently in place for power plants makes a lot more sense.

There is one thing that could eventually change the calculation–inclusion of carbon as a regulated pollutant could eventually lead to the adoption of Southern Illinois coal because it is more efficient. But that would come in a trade-off where the carbon emissions make low sulfur, less efficient coal more expensive to burn because of the costs of increased carbon emissions over Southern Illinois coal*.

*The more technical minded know this is a gross oversimplification given carbon production depends upon fuel burnt and so barring all other factors the same engergy created by btu of coal is the same amount of carbon, but to make it simple here, all things are not equal.

Apply the Logic to Those Tax Cuts

The Administration is happy to claim that not extending the 2001 tax cuts would be a tax increase.

The administration is also happy to claim that increasing the amount of pollution allowed under Clear Skies is a 73% reduction in NOx even though current law would reduce it further.

So, by their own logic, they are for more pollution. Damn that consistency….

The bill increases the amount of pollution projected to be released. The administration has tried to sell it as being a more efficient way to protect the environment. Under Clear Skies, air pollution will be reduced far less than under current law. One could be sympathetic to the notion that market incentives are a more efficient way to achieve the same goals, but in this case, the goals have been changed.

When the EPA was charged with coming up with a more flexible plan, the Bush administration gutted the proposal.

Under Clear Skies:
SO2
2000 11 million tons
2010 4.5 million tons in 2010
2018 3 million tons in 2018.

Under EPA’s 2001
2 million tons in 2010

NOx Under Clear Skies
2000 5 million tons
2008 2.1 million tons in 2008
2018 1.7 million tons

NOx under 2001 EPA
2008 1.9 million tons
2012 1.25 million tons

Mercury Under Clear Skies
2010 34 tons
2018 15 tons

Under EPA 2001
2008 24 tons
2018 7.5 tons with 70% facility-specific reduction

All of this is assuming there is a change. The arguments the Administration makes concerning the comparisons to the current CAA assumes that the EPA doesn’t enforce the current CAA and that’s a ridiculous assumption.

If the administration wanted to simply improve the effeciency of obtaining the same level of pollution through market based incentives, it could do so approximately throught the 2001 proposal.

Or it could have a real debate about the appropriate level of pollution before it adjusts that level–a lovel that in the CAA had to be done with science in a rulemaking process, not designated in the legislation. The Administration doesn’t want that though and the science behind the recent updates to air quality withstood every test.

The bill is far more problematic when one looks at it including federal preemption of stronger state standards through the permitting process.

Also problematic are the provisions that avoid monitoring of emissions compared to the acid rain system. To have a working permit trading system you need someone to actual make sure the permitted emissions aren’t being exceeded–that is significantly reduced in this situation which means smarter operators can figure out when they have to run clean and when they don’t. Further, several aspects of the system allow it to be gamed. NRDC’s testimony offers one specific example I find interesting:

Section 407(d) of the bill provides opt-in units with a menu of options from which to select the method of establishing their baseline emissions. These baseline options are designed to allow manipulation to create high emission entitlements — that is, opt-in units’ baseline emissions may be manipulated and inflated well above their normal actual emissions, to enable plant owners and operators to receive higher numbers of emissions allowances (rights to emit). In turn these bogus allowances permit higher amounts of emissions in the overall trading scheme. Because this flood of higher, artificial allowances from opt-in units may be traded to power plants and other affected units, the effect is to create additional authorizations to emit above the caps. Stated differently, the infusion of bogus allowances from opt-in units effectively raises the caps above the levels claimed by the administration.

The one thing we should have learned is that when a market is allowed to be gamed, it will be. This system will offer the same sort of problems as California’s deregulation of power, where by allowing producers to determine the starting points, they get to set the rules of the game. If it doesn’t bother you, then think of it as a barrier to entry for new, cleaner players in the system. If that doesn’t bother you, you are not concerned about the environment or a neutral market for capitalism.

James Baker Argues for Global Warming Initiative

James Baker, as close of an associate to the Bush family as one can be without the Bush name, argued for more attention to be paid to Global Warming and a long term strategy to mitigate its effects through transition to other energy sources.
For a short note on his comments, the number of interesting statements is quite high.

First, on the hobby horse of environmentalists needing to speak a language of those who enjoy the outdoors

?It may surprise you a little bit, but maybe it?s because I?m a hunter and a fisherman, but I think we need to a pay a little more attention to what we need to do to protect our environment,? he told the Houston Forum Club.

Part of the problem getting people to focus on the issue is that most people glaze over at the long descriptions of the dangers of global warming. Most people stop at “Earth get hotter–Bad.” Of course, increasing the average global temperature by 5 degrees over 100 years doesn’t sound significant until one realizes the true impact isn’t the increase in temperatures, but the impact of global warming on ecosystems. If you like to hunt, fish, camp, float, or hike, the issue isn’t being hotter for you, but how relatively minor changes in temperature can radically affect ecosystems over time.

For hunters and fisherman that means radical change in populations that may well reduce the number of game animals as well as the enjoyment of an area as it undergoes change from one type of ecoystem to another.

Second, is his rejection of Kyoto, while still calling for action

he current Bush administration refused to sign on to the international Kyoto Treaty to combat climate change, saying it would hurt the U.S. economy.

Baker said he agreed with the decision not to join Kyoto, calling it ?a lousy treaty? because it did not include China and India.

He correctly diagnoses the problem with Kyoto. Rejection of Kyoto wasn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, the problem from my perspective is that rejecting Kyoto without an alternative is the worst outcome. By not offering a different framework, the Administration sent the rest of the world down a path that will be incredibly difficult to change. Once Europe and other regions are focused on targets and methods contained in Kyoto, trying to renegotiate to a more effective regulatory regime becomes nearly impossible. Europe’s efforts will now largely be directed by the path dependencies contained in Kyoto that might not be the most effective long term strategies.

But he said he supported ?a gradual and orderly transition? to new fuels.

?I think we need to go forward with some sort of gradual, resourceful search for alternative sources,? Baker said.

This third quote is interesting in that Baker isn’t arguing for a Manhattan Project like effort, but a gradual and orderly transition that will make the eventual transition occur without creating giant bottlenecks in the economy.

Part of the problem is that R & D goes into fossil fuel research and development, but more problematic to me is that much of the R & D efforts on all fuels are done in situations where the research is divorced from the market. One can then find a ‘solution’ that works, but isn’t necessarily joined with a method to adopt the technology. The most obvious example of this is the SuperCar project that both the New Republic and the Trib have covered.

Fourth, and most importantly, despite talking heads on TV that decry the science behind global warming, the people with good scientists in their employ and a direct financial stake in regulation, admit there is a problem.

?When you have energy companies like Shell and British Petroleum, both of which are perhaps represented in this room, saying there is a problem with excess carbon dioxide emission, I think we ought to listen,? Baker said.

While the sound and the fury on talk television suggests that there isn’t consensus, that really only means that idiots paid for by conservative think tanks don’t agree (though many conservatives admit the problem). Industries are looking seriously at the problem and looking for ways to adopt solutions that will get ahead of the curve of legislation that they can see is coming sooner or later.

I’m sure there are areas of the policy area that I’d disagree with Baker over, but the larger framework from where he looks at the issue is I think the most productive and can eventually lead to a longterm sustainable solutions.

The question that no one seems to fully understand is that why isn’t there movement when major fossil fuel producers see a problem, when Ford’s CEO has made the issue a part of Ford’s marketing of the new Escape Hybrid, why is there still the kind of resistance in Congress towards the issue?

Downplaying industry resistance would be a mistake, but overplaying industry resistance is just as big of a mistake. Many of the industries most affected by future regulations see the problem, are adopting solutions, yet there is still stiff resistance. The answer appears to be that the ideology of the Republican Party doesn’t allow for any movement on the issue and it’s supported by conservative think tanks that generally are far more resistant than the actual industries.

As Democrats build up their infrastructure, this is an important lesson to keep in mind. The infrastructure should be geared towards developing and promoting new ideas that fit the Party’s values, but never should those efforts go further than the Party’s values where they become roadblocks to change.

Hate Groups Evolution as they Become Marginalized

Via Peoria Pundit

Kevin McDermott writes a detailed column in the Post-Dispatch on hate groups and how they may be becoming more dangerous as the groups become more marginalized

White supremacist groups have been on the decline in the Midwest lately, with key leaders jailed or stepping down and membership in disarray. But experts warn the hate movement could actually become more violent under those circumstances, as angry “lone wolf” extremists take matters into their own hands.

McDermott is one of the few solid reporters left at the Post-Dispatch–or perhaps more correctly stated, one of the few hard news reporters left at the Post-Dispatch who is allowed to write worthwhile articles. I’m betting being outside of the mind numbing daily drag of the St. Louis based editorial team allows him to avoid inane supervision.

It’s a good overview of the state of hate groups. The one criticism I have is the same thesis has been bandied about since at least the murder of Denver Talk Show Host Alan Berg. It doesn’t make it wrong, it just means it lacks the historical context that this has been theorized for many years. The other critique of it that I’ve heard is that entirely depends if you are a black man in the South in 2005 or in 1955. I’ve got a feeling hate groups were a little more troubling at the time if you hit that demographic.

But the general trend appears to be true, as the groups become more marginalized the people in them have less to lose and violence like this is likely.

In Saint Louis, a rather bizarre radio station used to run two white supremacist radio shows. About two to three weeks ago, both of those shows were cancelled with one an idiot affiliated with the National Alliance and the other affiliated with the Council of Conservative Citizens–in fact the CEO of the CofCC, Gordon Baum, was the co-host of that show.

My run-in with the other co-host can be found here. That POS was a school board member here in St. Louis up until 1993.

Earl Holt is too much of a drunken ass to ever kill anyone (sue me Earl–I’d love to have you under oath).

While it’s true they are generally becoming more marginalized, it’s also true they aren’t so marginalized to not have connections to ‘mainstream’ politicians. As I pointed out the other day, Hailey Barbour has attended fundraisers by the CofCC for segregationist academy busing and let’s not forget David Duke who got about 60% of the white vote in a US Senate race in 1990 and did pretty well in later races. He now is active with the hate group Stormfront

Never, Ever Use an Agnew Line Like That

When the press as a whole just hates you, laying a line on them that reminds them of the corrupt and soon then to resign Vice President Agnew is not exactly the manner in which to get in their good graces.

And the natural comparison it draws…ummm…there are times when the Governor shows incredible political skills–and then other times you want to ask him where he gets the good crack.

If it had been Thompson, they’d be having a beer and Chambers would be wilting (no offense to Chambersw, but pretty much everyone wilted). Even the sarcastic Edgar had a way of easing tension and not exaggerating it.

But an Agnew line?

New Ads!

Despite that I hadn’t mentioned his bill (or perhaps because) Jeff Trigg has placed a new ad supporting his initiative to reduce the barriers to non-established parties in the State of Illinois. His initiative would reduce signatures required to get on the ballot amonst other things. I was planning to voice support before, so by buying an ad, he puts me in the awkward stance of announcing my support as he buys the ad, but it’s still a good bill.

Allowing more parties on the ballot only increases potential participation in democracy and that is a good thing. Help Jeff out. Click on the ad in the upper right.

Two other ads–get your bracket manager Illini fans! and True Blue liberal is selling rubber bracelets to let you declare your political affilliation. Go for it!

Stealing Bill’s Hale Material Now

Sources indicate a Chicago Police Sketch Artist has been threatened by two associates of the World Church of the Creator. The sketches released seemed to indicate a darker skin tone than they felt was fair.

“The Police Sketch Artist is clearly trained by the Jewish Media which is trying to give credit for our work to those people. We simply will not stand for any suggestion we are not pure white Aryans,” said sketch one associate. “This is just another attempt to marginalize the white man in today’s society and we will not stand for it. We demand credit for our work and if the sketch artist doesn’t watch out, we’ll kill his family too.”

Police investigators who accompanied reporters to the quickly scheduled press conference looked at each other, shrugged, and placed both men under arrest. Bond is set at $10,000,000. The judge informed the defendants their insurance cards are not valid for bond in a criminal case.