2004

Who Wasn’t Expecting the Hull Surge?

On February 13th, Rich Miller published a full run-down on the Survey USA in the Capitol Fax (sorry, but you have to subscribe to the actual fax for this one–see site for how).

The gist of the story is that not only is Blair Hull taking a lead, but he is doing it in almost every category. Take a look at the results available from Survey USA (pdf format). Hull isn’t just ahead overall, he is ahead in all of the demographic categories except Black and Hispanic. In those two, he is second. Geographically, Hull is ahead in Downstate and the Collar Counties, second in Cook behind Obama. Amongst those ideologically self-identified, he’s tied Obama amongst liberals and ahead with conservatives and moderates. As Miller pointed out, Hull is liberal, but no one ever accused mass public opinion of being consistent.

A small note on the Survey USA polling–it is done by computer so the reliability is questioned by some.

Many seem surprised by the findings, but why? There is a model for his campaign (other than the statistical one he devised) and it was John Corzine’s campaign in the 2000 New Jersey Senate Election.

Corzine faced former Democratic New Jersey Governor Jim Florio in the primary. Early on, Florio was well ahead with both organizational support (though key players went with Corzine) and name recognition. Corzine won 58-42.

Let’s look back at the polls in that race.

February 23, 2000 35 point lead for Florio according to a Quinnipiac Survey. That was about 3 1/2 months out of the June 6th primary election with articles noting that Corzine had spent over $3 million

March 30th 50-26 Florio lead

May 10th-Just under one month before the election 48-33 Corzine over Florio

May 26th 47-28 Corzine over Florio, 56-30 for Corzine of those who intend to vote

Final tally 58-42 Corzine.

For one obvious reason this race is different. There are five serious contenders in the race instead of two, but let’s look at the polling trends since September 2003.

September 2003–5 1/2 months from election day
Hynes 10
Hull 9
Obama 8
Chico 7
Pappas not included

January 2004 2 months out
Hynes 14
Obama 14
Pappas 14
Hull 10

Survey USA January
Hynes 20
Obama 19
Hull 19
Pappas 18

Survey USA February
Hull 29
Hynes 19
Obama 19
Pappas 14

One month out Corzine showed distance. One month out, Hull is showing distance.

Does this mean Hull will win the primary? No. The field is divided so Hull has a more dynamic race to run than Corzine did. It does mean that someone who is getting hurt by him has to find a way to attack him. And that person is Dan Hynes, as Miller pointed out in his Friday story. Clearly, Hynes’ internals were showing deep problems downstate and hence the recent tour of Central and Southern Illinois. Free media can be picked up in smaller markets–even a little time in Metro-East.

The larger problem is that Hull hasn’t even hit his big media buy yet and Dan Hynes is in no shape to counter that effort. He doesn’t have adequate funds. Negative ads are a problem because Hynes would have to take ownership of the ads according to the new FEC regulations and say he paid for the ad (Miller pointed this out too). And Hynes agreed to Dick Durbin’s no negative ads against other Democrats pledge.

In fact, if Hynes were to attack he would probably damage Hull to some degree to the benefit of Barack Obama who can stay above the fray and simply look to turnout black and liberal votes while the other two go after one another. In such a scenario, Joyce Washington may play a spoiler to Obama even with a small number of votes.

Why did so many miss this? Because the past guides most of our views of the future and in the past, organization wins in Illinois. And Dan Hynes has organization as my e-mail demonstrates with the union of the day endorsement for Hynes. When one looks at other states, the potential for Hull was clear. New Jersey is heavy with organization, but Corzine was able to create his own organization with money–just as Hull is doing.

Fortunately, I haven’t been a naysayer. Since I’ve been doing the Roll Call in June, I’ve never had Hull above 2 or below 3. Why? I pointed out organization wins in Illinois, but money can buy an organization.

Unfortunately, a grave bias against stats geeks still exists in the political world,

From the Sun-Times on January 22nd, BLAIR HULL’S WINNING FORMULA

The densely written theorem is a string of precise numbers carried out to the eighth decimal place. It’s designed to identify people for Hull to target with fliers in the mail or telephone calls. Those chores were previously handled by precinct captains, who often flunked high school math.

"The basic idea," Hull said, "is you take the probability of voting times the probability of voting for Blair Hull and multiply them together, and that gives you the relative weight of how desirable it is to contact that person."

For those paying attention to modern campaigns, this is nothing earth shattering except that it formalizes the system of identifying certain and likely supporters in a formula.

This is especially useful if one is trying to create a get out the vote (GOTV) organization out of nothing because one can target 1s and 2s, as certain and likely voters are called, in the most efficient manner possible. Some folks didn’t pick up on the point of the formula in the article:

"The formula says ‘I’m spending $40 million,’ " Pappas said, laughing uproariously after learning of his formula. "He’s driving everybody crazy in this race, except me.

"Everybody will be running around trying to figure out his formula. … Forget about the formula. The formula is: The guy’s got money."

Not only that, but he is trying to use it efficiently.

The most professionally embarrassing comment comes here:

Michael Mezey, a political science professor at DePaul University, read the Atlantic Monthly piece but is skeptical.

"Winning primaries is very much sort of getting your people to the polls, especially in a divided race," he said. "And that’s not subject to a mathematical formula."

Some of the old guys just don’t get what statistics can do. The whole point of the model is to focus efforts on the most likely voters for Hull which also includes the GOTV efforts. Given Hull is already canvassing downstate, I’d say he’s planned for this.

This doesn’t mean a formula alone will do it, but it can be a powerful tool in campaign management. I cannot evaluate it without the data and model and some free time I don’t have, but there is no reason to dismiss it.

Later today, will be a new Roll Call (hopefully). I think you can guess who is on top.

How Not to Deal with the Press

Every Presidency does it, but really now, shouldn’t they learn that stonewalling only makes you look like you have something to hide? Even if there is an explanation you look like it is bad.

Josh Marshall reprints Scott McClellan’s Who’s On First performance

Here is the way to make the issue go away–release the records and answer the questions. Even if it is bad, it is better to release it now because you will release them eventually–trust me.

The presumptive Democratic nominee may be needing that advice soon too.

UPDATE: As I was saying, you will release them eventually

Internal Hulls

I’m hearing (nice passive way to avoid who the source is) that the internal polling for Hull is even better. Now, all internal leaks should be treated skeptically. That said, there is a back story why those polls might not be the normal push polling. Hull is a stats geek and we (the statgeeks of the world) have a thing about accurate numbers. Sure, we can push numbers, but more importantly we want to know the real state of the universe. Assuming this info I’m getting is accurate (and no I haven’t analyzed the raw data–but if someone wants to send it to me with the questions I’d be happy to give it a go with the numbers embargoed until after the election!), Hull’s polls should be be both reliable and valid.

Eric Zorn is surprised.


His ads are everywhere, and many insiders and know-it-alls (I’m squarely in the latter camp) who dismissed the uncharismatic millionaire as a vain, inexperienced dilettante who had no chance with the voters must now take serious notice.

Having been down this road before myself, and having been rightly criticized–is it any more vain than the son of a party leader who was handed a statewide office at a young age? This isn’t to pick on Dan Hynes–I like him, but what is the real difference? Hull has an impressive private sector background. Others in the race did work their way up, but if we are going to criticize Hull, let’s spread it around. I am a big fan of legislative experience at lower levels of government, but neither of them have it. At least Hull knows who the hell Kjellander is and what he did.

That said, we shouldn’t be surprised. I’ll have to look it up, but I know at least in private my take is that Hull has to increase his name recognition by this time and then be ready to duke it out. Having all the money in the world helps get that name recognition. This campaign has all of the markings of Corzine’s a couple years ago except with more chaos in the race from the big candidate pool.

The bigger news for Hull, he is getting some organizational support. Over the objections of the elder Hynes, Dick Mell is set to endorse Hull at the end of the month in an event featurign Billie Jean King and also attended by Bobbie Rush and Luis Gutierrez. Mell is organized in labor and can dole out patronage jobs. This doesn’t mean Hull will win the labor vote, but it does mean he can eat into that vote at the margins and this is likely to be an election at the margins.

Trucking Scandal Has Some Good Effects

The trucking scandal is apparently taking a lot of energy out the Mayor. While being cynical about the Mayor is generally correct and he has a tough hide when it comes to criticism, this one seems to be draining him according to some around him.

In response, he is looking to propose a major social service project/agency push to address joblessness and homelessness. Certainly some of it is to change the subject, but this is also a guy who takes on thankless tasks such as school reform. Leaving a legacy also plays an important part in the Mayor’s thinking.

Reported to me: The shocker: most of the agencies are faith-based.

I’m not sure this is a shocker. The Mayor has long worked on getting black ministers on his side and has used them as a conduit for several initatives. And that makes sense–in many of the most decimated communities the only institution still standing is the church. While appropriate concerns exist over proselytizing on the public dime, I have generally found that in such neighborhoods, proselytizing is well behind survival.

Senate Central

I’m back to updating, but to catch up on the best in the race:

Eric Zorn is doing a bang up job

Modern Vertebrate who has all the links and is now reporting at Political State Report. Desperately in need of being added to the blog roll

And finally, the central repository for the Senate race: Illinois Senate

We just entered the hot zone as regular people (those that don’t spend their time at political blogs debating the fine points of empty suits) start to pay attention. Having good name recognition is important to scoring well and then candidates begin to really make impressions now. Hence, the Dan Hynes downstate tour comes at a crucial time. Watch to see who can get a good buzz in the media over the next week.

And Remember Death is Not an Option

with credit for the feature to Steve Rosenbloom of the Trib

Being a Coward or Being an Empty Suit

A little vague for you? Read Kass’s column on the Tribune Editorial Board meeting with the Republican Senate Candidates,

One might think that Kass’ condemnation of those who wouldn’t criticize Kjellander was the strongest, but read it a second time and Jack Ryan comes out looking like a giant boob.


Just about the time one candidate was proving he went to college by offering a fascinating aside on the Treaty of Westphalia and Europe of the 1600s, I got bored and asked a question.

=====================

Nobody was paying much attention to another candidate, Jack Ryan, who was still probably thinking about his pithy Treaty of Westphalia reference and whether we understood it.

Ryan said he did not know exactly what the other candidates were talking about but said he’d have an opinion, once "I find out what he did."

It was explained to him, and he said he’d reserve judgment until he had more facts.

Now, in between those sections, Kass drives the point home even harder by pointing out Rauschenberger’s response:


Then Rauschenberger declared: "Well, then I hope you don’t say any more about party building, either of you, if you don’t have an opinion on the national committeeman and what’s going on in the party. Welcome to the Republican Party, but don’t talk about party building in front of public audiences."

Not having an opinion is bad. Not knowing anything is hysterical. From what flipping planet is this clown ?

The column is full of nuggets, but the best is Uber-WASP McKenna saying:

"You talking to me?"

Why I oughta slap you with my white glove!

Republican Senate Roll Call

Remember, this was before the most recent poll.

1) Jack Ryan. Apparently being an empty suit is in this year. Don’t know about Kjellander’s scandal in the Tribune Editorial Board? Being that rich you should be able to buy a clue. Social conservatives love him and he is an attractive candidate. Trekkers still hate him.

2) Oberweis. Yes, he is exploiting his business for political gain and his political campaign for personal gain. It works. Making a lot of noise on immigrants and that gets him attention. Giving away free ice cream for life attracts a lot Democrats to his web site. Still has the social conservatives worried and they are consistently making low level attacks about his ties to G-Ryan and others not in social conservative favor.

3)McKenna–the combine candidate is trying to take back the party for big bidness and the social conservatives aren’t happy. Nevermind that he is a social conservative himself, but he wont’ criticize Kjellander. Still the combine wing hopes this is their guy.

4) Rauschenberger–not getting the money he needs and not capturing the audience. Strange in a way given he is a serious guy. Very serious. It appears to be two problems. First, he isn’t as good as some of the others at the game. Second, he isn’t really beholden to anyone so the natural constituency isn’t there. Don’t count him out though as he has lots of support from state lege members and they can deliver a lot of local votes in a split primary.

5) Borling–Pro-choice in a pro-life party and doesn’t seem to have a convincing rationale for why he should be Senator. As Bob Dole has said, if war records mattered, he would have beaten Clinton.

6) Kathuria–the only person dumber than a candidate who sues for bad press coverage is the campaign manager who doesn’t tackle him and put him in a straight-jacket until the urge subsides. Using the press as a foil is good tactics. Suing them for criticizing a public figure just gets you tossed into the blackhole of gadfly candidate. Nothing escapes a blackhole.

Democratic Senate Roll Call

Okay, pretend this was up last week. But I will be doing another one over the weekend…(meaning the newest poll isn’t taken into account)

1) Hynes–Not as strong as one would expect, but still has union and county organizations behind him which is a lot. A bit bland on the campaign trail and a weak defense of his support for the War in Iraq (remember–I had the same position and I found it weak). The top 4 are in a tie in the polls–something a statewide office holder should not be in given right now–name recognition is the name of the game and he and Pappas should have that advantage

2) Obama–Organization, organization, organization. Still has the single largest block of votes. Bright, articulate and excites the base–combining a lot of energy from Deaniacs and the African-American community. By my scorecard best job in the debates.

3) Hull–catching up in name recognition and the cash is still pouring into to tv stations. Ms. ArchPundit thinks the busing seniors to Canada is hysterical and loves it. When Ms. ArchPundit notices such things it is having an effect. She considered voting for a Presidential primary candidate based on his favorite song being Journey. Running a tight campaign that hits old people, downstate and independent Democrats and is canvassing for his ones and twos everywhere–my family is getting calls in Greene County

4) Pappas–good name recognition, but some of the most bizarre statements in a debate since W. Is there a campaign plan or is she just running around like a chicken with her head cut off?

5) Chico–good debate performance and the only one courageous enough to stand up for gay marriage. Good for you. But he still has no strong organizational support and is the crowded out one in a talented field.

6) Skinner–spirited campaign, but the sticking her head next to Howard Dean for a quick picture looked like someone pulling a prank at an amusement park.

7)Washington–Who? What? Where? and above all Why?