2004

From the Peanut Gallery: Jim Oberweis for US Senate

ArchPundit March 10, 2004 No Comments

First submission for the satirical endorsements. By That Colored Fella

In one of President George W. Bush?s inspiring new TV ads, he speaks plainly of the enduring entrepreneurial spirit of America. The results of which have sparked and fueled an economic recovery (confirmed by the infallible Vice-President Dick Cheney) that has created Illinois jobs for those who want and are eligible, to work.

Jim Oberweis embodies that entrepreneurial spirit!

His continued success as a small business owner, rewarding life as a family man and concern for his community and nation, is what drives him to seek higher office. A principled Republican, he believes deeply in the core tenants of his party: limited government, responsible fiscal policy and opportunity for all! Jim Oberweis has seen first-hand how Hillary Clinton and the Liberal elite have weakened our country, overtaxed the business sector and opened our borders, to advance their immoral vision.
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For the Democratic Nomination: Barack Obama

ArchPundit March 10, 2004 2 Comments

Rarely have I seen a field as deep and impressive as the Illinois field of candidates this election. In contrast to a the Republicans where there are only two high quality candidates out of seven, there are five out of seven who I would be proud to call my US Senator. Of those five, Barack Obama is something special in someone who embodies everything Democrats hold dear.
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For The Republican Nomination: Rack One More Up for Steve!

ArchPundit March 9, 2004 No Comments

ArchPundit heartily endorses Steve Rauschenberger for the Republican Senate Nomination in Illinois. Let’s not get confused here, Steve is far more conservative than I and I would not vote for him in the general election. But I would get closer to voting for him than I would anyone else in that field with only Borling coming even close to Steve.

The Republican field is full of people with little public experience who seem to think it would be neat to be a Senator so they are throwing money at the possibilty of being a big important person. Good for them. But this is one of the most unqualified and unserious field of candidates I have ever seen. Two have any legislative experience–or elected experience and one of them was an appointment. One other has given admiral service to his country in the US Air Force. The others? A gadfly dairy owner. A gadfly Doctor. An industrialist who has the sole distinction of giving money to the party over time. And a stock broker who teaches high school, but is clueless in regards to his own party and state. The last will wait for a more full treatment as Illinois is about to be subjected to him for 8 more months.
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Illinois Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-9

ArchPundit March 9, 2004 No Comments

1. Obama. Polls and buzz and momentum. Good place to be one week out. Needs to ensure the turnout stays high. From comments Trib has him at 62% in the A-A community. Given black voters are late deciders even with an African-American in the race, that probably breaks for him even better. Some inroads by Hull with Rush, but that is at the margins. And his supporters even buy time on ArchPundit! See to the right!

2. Hynes. Number 2 in the polls, but desperately needs to make inroads downstate and have good turnout. Biggest problem–just not as passionate of a following. Read comments on the cattle call comment period for good takes on where he needs turnout especially. Perhaps hamstrung by playing it too cute with social conservatives down south. That wing of the Democratic Party is dying while South Chicago is being transformed demographically meaning that tension will be come less and less. Another thing to note is that Lane Evans operation is behind Obama. That won’t help along the southern edges of the Illinois River where Lane is new, but in the Quad Cities and even in Lane’s new territory in Decatur, that should marginally help Obama and hurt Hynes where Labor is the Democratic Party.

3. Hull. Pretty much Glenn Brown and I have agreed on most of these cattle calls, but here I part with him. We have him in the same position, but I think he is rebounding a bit, while Glenn thinks he is falling. If he falls, Hynes gets stronger downstate where he has commercials. If he rises, Hynes gets weaker. Hull should be increasing slightly for the rest of the campaign. The question is whether it will be enough to get into a turnout contest on election day. If it is, he has a reasonable shot. The problem appears to be an undercurrent of the remaining undecideds think several candidates are good, but the best news is for Obama where they are slightly trending. Hull needs something to intervene. THe problem being the press is in love with Obama (or not a problem if you are a Obama supporter).

4. Pappas. Probably maintain where she is at. Unless the campaign commercials have more of an effect than I’d predict she is probably stuck in fourth. As a note, they are supposed to be on the air in St. Louis, but I haven’t seen them yet–of course, I’m probably not the target audience. I think the campaign won’t hurt her as much as it could. The debate performances were a problem, but I think this race has been hard to break out of and that will be the media consensus. Both Chico and her are decent candidates, but shut out of the media by Hynes, Obama and the Hull media explosion. The best quotes from her were about the Hull media explosion.

5. Chico. Perhaps supporting Guitierrez’s opponent wasn’t so smart. Interesting to see how he does in Latino wards.

6. Skinner. There is this new liberal radio network….

7. Washington. Web site is back up. Don’t know why.

3.

Illinois Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-9

ArchPundit March 9, 2004 2 Comments

1. Jack! Glenn suggests in comments that he was bribed to not put him at number one by Jeri. As if. But I’m really running out of material here. Jack! is really about the funniest nickname I can come up with–in fact it is damn hilarious the more I think about it.

2. Rauschenberger. I don’t need no steenking polls. Steve is smart the rest are dumb and need to be eliminated from the island. Really, I do expect that if anyone gets late breakers it’ll be him or Jack!

3. Oberweis. He brought in Tancredo (Loony Bin Party Label-Colorado). Thank you, I didn’t think he could be any more ridiculous. Tancredo is the primary anti-immigrant guy in Congress and general comic relief. They fit well together. With any luck Tancredo will run in Colorado and lead to the biggest turnout of Latinos for Democrats ever. Udall is in, that would be a nice pick-up. Really, the Colorado race is more fun than this one anymore.

4. McKenna. The Wonder Bread of WASPs.

5. Borling. By the end of this, him and Rauschenberger will be number one and two simply because I can’t stand it anymore. If you are going to lose, slap the whippersnapper around a bit more on foreign policy.

6. Jonathan Wright. Makes Pat O’Malley look reasonable and sorta like a compromiser. Big star of the future. Look for him to challenge for one of the statewide races in 2006. My guess is he might take social conservative hatred of all things moderate and make that a campaign in the primary against Dan Rutherford.

7. Kathuria. NEW POLL SHOWS U.S. REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATE, DR. CHIRINJEEV KATHURIA, STATISTICALLY TIED FOR SECOND PLACE

I can’t make that stuff up.

Undecided Dems and Momentum

ArchPundit March 9, 2004 1 Comment

So what I’m hearing in the background is that there are a bunch of undecideds in the recent polling that seem to be moving towards Obama, but they aren’t hardcore supporters. Instead they are moving towards him half-heartedly because he is the front-runner (last part is my interpretation). While they are swayable, good news begets good news and so Obama is doing better because he is, well, doing better. Obviously a campaign bombshell of some sort might change this, but in many ways this is what probably would have happened for Hull had he begun to pull away and not had the divorce scandal break. As people break, more people break with them. And the Corzine model would have propelled him to an unshakeable lead. Instead, his momentum was stopped and he is having to rebuild. He increasingly faces an uphill fight while Obama needs to ride the wave of good media.

I still think the wild card is downstate though with Hynes and Hull needing it to break one way or another.

Present and Accounted For

ArchPundit March 9, 2004 3 Comments

At this point in a campaign cynicism sets in for me and I pretty much take the charges flying around as ‘the game’. But Eric Zorn offers a powerful counterpoint to the claims that Obama has avoided votes on abortion.

“To provide cover for other Democrats who were shaky on the issue in an effort to convince them not to vote `yes,'” Sutherland said. “The idea is to recruit a group to vote `present’ that includes legislators who are clearly right with the issue.”

Sutherland said this tactic makes the “present” vote look less like a hedge or a cop-out and more like a constitutional concern or other high-minded qualm.

She pointed to the Parental Notice of Abortion Act of 2001, a bill requiring that an adult family member be notified 48 hours in advance when a minor seeks an abortion.

The complaint seems to me to be the equivalent of complaining about fake committees created to kill bills. Being more familiar with the House, bills problematic for certain blocks of Members are sent to an ad hoc committee by Rules. The ad hoc committee never meets, the bill dies. If one was to complain that the chair never even chaired the meeting, you would laugh them out of the room because Da Speaker told them not to meet–well actually Steve Brown told them not to meet, but you know.

UPDATE: I just read the Hotline and I did not take the Title from them. Really! In fact, I think I had this up first.