March 2004

The Not Present Votes

While I tend not to get charged up about campaign barbs, let’s make one thing clear, if you didn’t vote at all, you don’t get to criticize others votes.

Blair Hull’s biggest scandal should be that he hasn’t vote regularly. While I’m uncomfortable with the language surrounding the divorce issues, ultimately we have no evidence of a pattern of behavior. I doubt any of us would want to be judged by our worst days.

However, voting matters a lot. I can forgive not voting in some cases, but even in voting for John Edwards in the primary, I remembered he only eratically voted before 1998. Hull has a similar record as does Cheney. Cheney really blows my mind, but frankly him not voting is a good thing.

Voting matters and it matters a lot. As I’ve mentioned before, voting was like a religion in my family and the only elections I have missed are when I’ve moved within the 30 days of an election and two special elections involving one office where I hated everyone. I’ve voted more at the age of 32 than either John Edwards in his forties or Blair Hull in his sixties. Hell, I probably voted more than both of them by the time I was 22.

A single vote isn’t that important. Despite the little booklets that trot out statistics about where one vote might have mattered, even in Florida one vote didn’t matter one way or another. Except on the Supreme Court.

That leaves open why I see voting as so essential. Voting is the simplest manner in which we participate in our freedom which is unmatched in the history of the world. To not vote is to reject the sacrifice of those before us and to take our freedom for granted.

This isn’t an issue of the far past. Forty years ago African-Americans fought for the right to vote and participate politically. The were not fully Americans. Registering and showing up just isn’t that hard for a nation as privileged as we are.

Thirteen years ago, I travelled to Nicaragua for a college class. Pretty cool for a kid raised in a trailer and apartments by a single mother. While many things struck me, the most moving were three different women who told their stories of being raped by Somoza’s National Guard or Contras for nothing more than promoting democratic reform. After those incidents, those women went on to continue their fight for democracy. One worked providing training to women that would enable them to hold jobs. Another was a legislator. How can we treat something so special so flippantly that people suffered for so greatly?

I don’t weed out candidates on this issue alone. Certainly honesty and ideology are vital and I can overlook that mistake. But why should I trust someone to represent me when they wouldn’t even represent themselves?

The Present Votes

In a rejoinder to the defense of the present votes by Obama on pro-choice votes, one reader points out that some of those votes were done to provide cover for future statewide ambitions of some Dems. And thus, the story is more complex and Obama’s votes weren’t so pure.

My rejoinder to the rejoinder is if Obama was being protected by pro-choice groups wouldn’t he be soft-pedaling his stance on late term abortions? He isn’t when he specifically criticizes the recently passed bill. And more importantly, tactics matter in the US Senate more than probably any other legislative body in the democratic world.

Update: For those visiting from Eric Zorn’s Notebook, here is an earlier post that describes another Springfield Legislative tactic.

From the Peanut Gallery: Jim Oberweis for US Senate

First submission for the satirical endorsements. By That Colored Fella

In one of President George W. Bush?s inspiring new TV ads, he speaks plainly of the enduring entrepreneurial spirit of America. The results of which have sparked and fueled an economic recovery (confirmed by the infallible Vice-President Dick Cheney) that has created Illinois jobs for those who want and are eligible, to work.

Jim Oberweis embodies that entrepreneurial spirit!

His continued success as a small business owner, rewarding life as a family man and concern for his community and nation, is what drives him to seek higher office. A principled Republican, he believes deeply in the core tenants of his party: limited government, responsible fiscal policy and opportunity for all! Jim Oberweis has seen first-hand how Hillary Clinton and the Liberal elite have weakened our country, overtaxed the business sector and opened our borders, to advance their immoral vision.
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For The Republican Nomination: Rack One More Up for Steve!

ArchPundit heartily endorses Steve Rauschenberger for the Republican Senate Nomination in Illinois. Let’s not get confused here, Steve is far more conservative than I and I would not vote for him in the general election. But I would get closer to voting for him than I would anyone else in that field with only Borling coming even close to Steve.

The Republican field is full of people with little public experience who seem to think it would be neat to be a Senator so they are throwing money at the possibilty of being a big important person. Good for them. But this is one of the most unqualified and unserious field of candidates I have ever seen. Two have any legislative experience–or elected experience and one of them was an appointment. One other has given admiral service to his country in the US Air Force. The others? A gadfly dairy owner. A gadfly Doctor. An industrialist who has the sole distinction of giving money to the party over time. And a stock broker who teaches high school, but is clueless in regards to his own party and state. The last will wait for a more full treatment as Illinois is about to be subjected to him for 8 more months.
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Illinois Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-9

1. Obama. Polls and buzz and momentum. Good place to be one week out. Needs to ensure the turnout stays high. From comments Trib has him at 62% in the A-A community. Given black voters are late deciders even with an African-American in the race, that probably breaks for him even better. Some inroads by Hull with Rush, but that is at the margins. And his supporters even buy time on ArchPundit! See to the right!

2. Hynes. Number 2 in the polls, but desperately needs to make inroads downstate and have good turnout. Biggest problem–just not as passionate of a following. Read comments on the cattle call comment period for good takes on where he needs turnout especially. Perhaps hamstrung by playing it too cute with social conservatives down south. That wing of the Democratic Party is dying while South Chicago is being transformed demographically meaning that tension will be come less and less. Another thing to note is that Lane Evans operation is behind Obama. That won’t help along the southern edges of the Illinois River where Lane is new, but in the Quad Cities and even in Lane’s new territory in Decatur, that should marginally help Obama and hurt Hynes where Labor is the Democratic Party.

3. Hull. Pretty much Glenn Brown and I have agreed on most of these cattle calls, but here I part with him. We have him in the same position, but I think he is rebounding a bit, while Glenn thinks he is falling. If he falls, Hynes gets stronger downstate where he has commercials. If he rises, Hynes gets weaker. Hull should be increasing slightly for the rest of the campaign. The question is whether it will be enough to get into a turnout contest on election day. If it is, he has a reasonable shot. The problem appears to be an undercurrent of the remaining undecideds think several candidates are good, but the best news is for Obama where they are slightly trending. Hull needs something to intervene. THe problem being the press is in love with Obama (or not a problem if you are a Obama supporter).

4. Pappas. Probably maintain where she is at. Unless the campaign commercials have more of an effect than I’d predict she is probably stuck in fourth. As a note, they are supposed to be on the air in St. Louis, but I haven’t seen them yet–of course, I’m probably not the target audience. I think the campaign won’t hurt her as much as it could. The debate performances were a problem, but I think this race has been hard to break out of and that will be the media consensus. Both Chico and her are decent candidates, but shut out of the media by Hynes, Obama and the Hull media explosion. The best quotes from her were about the Hull media explosion.

5. Chico. Perhaps supporting Guitierrez’s opponent wasn’t so smart. Interesting to see how he does in Latino wards.

6. Skinner. There is this new liberal radio network….

7. Washington. Web site is back up. Don’t know why.

3.

Illinois Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-9

1. Jack! Glenn suggests in comments that he was bribed to not put him at number one by Jeri. As if. But I’m really running out of material here. Jack! is really about the funniest nickname I can come up with–in fact it is damn hilarious the more I think about it.

2. Rauschenberger. I don’t need no steenking polls. Steve is smart the rest are dumb and need to be eliminated from the island. Really, I do expect that if anyone gets late breakers it’ll be him or Jack!

3. Oberweis. He brought in Tancredo (Loony Bin Party Label-Colorado). Thank you, I didn’t think he could be any more ridiculous. Tancredo is the primary anti-immigrant guy in Congress and general comic relief. They fit well together. With any luck Tancredo will run in Colorado and lead to the biggest turnout of Latinos for Democrats ever. Udall is in, that would be a nice pick-up. Really, the Colorado race is more fun than this one anymore.

4. McKenna. The Wonder Bread of WASPs.

5. Borling. By the end of this, him and Rauschenberger will be number one and two simply because I can’t stand it anymore. If you are going to lose, slap the whippersnapper around a bit more on foreign policy.

6. Jonathan Wright. Makes Pat O’Malley look reasonable and sorta like a compromiser. Big star of the future. Look for him to challenge for one of the statewide races in 2006. My guess is he might take social conservative hatred of all things moderate and make that a campaign in the primary against Dan Rutherford.

7. Kathuria. NEW POLL SHOWS U.S. REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATE, DR. CHIRINJEEV KATHURIA, STATISTICALLY TIED FOR SECOND PLACE

I can’t make that stuff up.

Today’s Schedule

Okay, so we have a circus in town tonight AKA the Saint Louis Board of Education meeting that is going to introduce options to reduce $25 million+ from the budget (roughly 5% of last years fiscal year budget–after already reducing the budget by 10% without firing a teacher or reducing their pay) and a sitting Board member has a restraining order against her from another Board Member and an asst. Superintendent. On top of that 14 citizens have filed a quo warranto motion to have her removed from the Board for her past actions including dumping a pitcher of water on said Asst. Superintendent and being taken away from District offices while high on cocaine screaming in the middle of the street for God to Help her. The pitcher was motivated by her memories of what Dorothy did to the Wicked Witch of the West. She also put a curse on me. I kid you not.

So my day is pretty busy meaning endorsements will be late tonight and posting will be intermittent. But look for later night material. And of course, tips from those in the know will get top priority today.

For those interested in the above story, go over to the Blog Saint Louis.

Undecided Dems and Momentum

So what I’m hearing in the background is that there are a bunch of undecideds in the recent polling that seem to be moving towards Obama, but they aren’t hardcore supporters. Instead they are moving towards him half-heartedly because he is the front-runner (last part is my interpretation). While they are swayable, good news begets good news and so Obama is doing better because he is, well, doing better. Obviously a campaign bombshell of some sort might change this, but in many ways this is what probably would have happened for Hull had he begun to pull away and not had the divorce scandal break. As people break, more people break with them. And the Corzine model would have propelled him to an unshakeable lead. Instead, his momentum was stopped and he is having to rebuild. He increasingly faces an uphill fight while Obama needs to ride the wave of good media.

I still think the wild card is downstate though with Hynes and Hull needing it to break one way or another.