March 2004

Illinois Democratic Senate Nomination Cattle Call 3-14

1. Obama. Has the numbers and the buzz. Got good coverage of Jackson’s call to vote today, should help clean up big portions of the black vote.

2. Hynes. At the St. Patrick’s Day Parade getting them ready for GOTV on Tuesday and beer on Wednesday.

3. Hull. Crisscrossing the state and flooding the airwaves and mailboxes

4. Pappas. Good coverage today and making the rounds in Chicago. At this point, barring a meltdown by the top two this race is probably for pride.

5. Chico. Left out of the weekend activities. Too bad, one of the more thoughtful candidates.

6. Skinner. Does she throw a victory party or just go to Hull’s?

7. Washington. She was more interesting when her site was down.

Illinois Republican Senate Nomination Cattle Call 3-14

1. Jack! Calls continue, but unless a killer mailing or breaking news occurs, he looks like he is on the way to the nomination. Have to go back to empty suit references and the wonders of the Treaty of Westphalia. Disadvantage of the brouhaha–he still explained how he doesn’t know about Kjellander’s escapades.

2. Rauschenberger. He’ll surprise, let’s hope he doesn’t embarass me too much with my constant talk about how he should do well. Probably the worst if he pulls out a win–he isn’t fun to make fun of.

3. Oberweis. Republicans, please vote for him–give me material for the general election.

4. McKenna. Confused for Wal-Mart greeter while seeing what these big warehouse stores are all about.

5. Borling. Disappeared since the other day. Lost in Rockford

6. Wright. Victory party will probably include only non-alcoholic champagne. Yeck….

7. Kathuria. Will claim on resume to have been close to a first place finish.

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Questions Continue for Jack!

I thought maybe it was blowing over, but Oberweis jumped on it today and the press pushed harder. Jack! continues to think this will go away. Let me explain again, just release the files, you will later. If it is what McCulloch argues I can see why Ryan is attempting to avoid disclosure, but then he deserves to go down in flames. And will because the Democrats will get a hold of it one way or another. Or already have it and are keeping it back to permanently kill him off late in the cycle, but he’ll take the Republican candidates down with him. Already, Bush is leaving the state and the point of Rove recruiting Ryan is that he could at least make it a race so the Republicans down ticket wouldn’t get killed. Rove also had delusions that Illinois would be in play, but he’ll be living that down for some time.

Now if it is bunk, showing it to a third party lets him get a free pass later on other issues as the press feels bad for this kind of garbage. Imagine the sympathy the guy gets if the press forces him to release records that only exploit the son?

The middle case is that McCulloch’ charges are more serious than what is really in there but that material is embarrassing. Then the strategy is to wait for the primary to get through and then have it released so it won’t matter by the time the general comes around. But then the press turns on you.

Pretending this will go away doesn’t mean it will. And given the nature of the accusations, frankly the public does have a right to know. Going to an intermediary who could analyze them would probably be sufficient, but the allegations are quite serious and they go to the core of his character.

In other news, Barack is dealing with the his name by confronting the concerns. The smart thing is that if someone tries to slime him, it’ll backfire in the press. I wonder if this is natural or if they are borrowing the routine from Blagojevich.

Mason Dixon Senate Poll

Ryan and Obama stay well ahead

Democrats

Obama 37
Hynes 18
Hull 16
Pappas 8
Chico 5
Skinner 1
Washington 1
Undecided 14

Republicans

Ryan 45
McKenna 12
Oberweis 11
Rauschenberger 7
Borling 4
Wright 2
Kathuria 1

The telephone poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Callers interviewed 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters. The poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Breakdowns for the Dems are:

In the Chicago metropolitan area, Obama was getting 47 percent to 11 percent for Hynes, 10 percent for Hull, 9 percent for Pappas, 6 percent for Chico and 1 percent each for Skinner and Washington. Downstate, Hynes led with 39 percent to 30 percent for Hull, who has done extensive advertising outside of the Chicago area. Obama had only 9 percent of the downstate support. In that region, Pappas had 5 percent, Chico had 3 percent, and support for Skinner and Washington was negligible.

Among African-American voters, Obama was getting 72 percent to 6 percent for Hull, 3 percent for Joyce Washington, 2 percent for Hynes and 1 percent each for Pappas and Chico.

Among whites, 28 percent were for Obama, 22 percent for Hynes, 19 percent for Hull, 10 percent for Pappas, 6 percent for Chico and 1 percent for Skinner.

Fifteen percent of blacks and 14 percent of Whites were undecided.