Running a vanity web site is ultimately a bit about ego and nothing is more humbling than when smart people smack you down–even if they do it nicely. A particularly smart reader wrote in with this to say several things.
First, he points out that Hull is very close to G-Rod and was the single biggest contributor to the campaign and provided the plane to fly around the state. The assumption being that Mell/G-Rod already have him in mind as their guy. Good point and correct.
The second point is that Daley is being coy about Hull. After all, Thomas Hynes, Dan Hynes father, has been very loyal to the Mayor and Hynes probably expects support for Dan, if he runs. This is also an excellent point. I don’t dispute this, but Daley has differing levels of support so it is always hard to figure what he actually wants. I think the reader’s analysis is probably better than my analysis though and Daley will publicly back Hynes assuming he gets in the race and the CW is that Hynes will.
I’ll quote the third point which addresses an egregious error on my part:
you can’t be serious about Gutierrez
and Chico? Gutierrez will never, ever, forgive Chico for backing Marty
Castro in the 4th’s primary in ’02. I know from impeccable sources that
Chico’s aides have been desperately trying to arrange a "sit down," and
Gutierrez is not biting, and won’t. What is more, as I noted above,
Gutierrez has become one of Blago and Hull’s closest pals. There is
already talk that Gutierrez is considering the same kind of suppport for
Hull that he gave Blago — which, according to Neal, clinched Blago’s
primary win. But whatever Gutierrez does, it will not include supporting
in any way Chico.
My bad. I forgot about Chico and Castro. Duh.
Thanks to the reader. All good points.
Sometime later in the week, I’ll start updating the contenders similar to how Daily Kos does for Presidential Candidates. The one clear implication from the above is that Chico is going to lose if he runs (and he says he is). Without the Hispanic vote (and Gutierrez will be the key to much of that) he has little chance. He doesn’t have Daley’s support and won’t. He doesn’t have THynes support and he won’t get Madigan’s support. His business connections might be slightly helpful, but with Hull, Hynes and possibly Pappas in the race, forget about it.
Where does that leave us:
1) Mosely-Braun: With 25% of the vote locked up she has to be the front runner
2) Hynes: Connections, connections, connections
3) Hull: (really interchangeable with Hynes): Money, connections, money
4) Pappas: Strategic and wily
5) Obama: Not much there if Moseley-Braun is in the race
6) Chico: When will he get squeezed out
7) Schakowsky: No room especially if Pappas enters the race
I haven’t made up my mind about who I like the most which is rare even this early. For now:
1) Hynes–wins in November, smart guy, could be a bit more experienced
2) Hull–wins in November, slight downgrade for not having been elected previously
3) Obama–he has my heart, but not my expectation of being able to win over Fitzgerald easily
4) Pappas–smart and can win–good reformer
5) Chico–not much good, not much bad
6) Schakowsky–too liberal in November, not that impressive strategically
7) Moseley-Braun–everything I hate about the Republican Party
Republicans
1)Fitzgerald: Got the Wingnut ground operation behind him
2)McKenna: won’t inspire anyone besides combine folks
Prefer:
1) Fitzgerald–he is beatable and if he does pull off a victory at least the US Attorneys will be agressive
2) McKenna–so is he, but not as easily in the burbs
ArchPundit