June 2003

Bring it On Grover…

ArchPundit June 24, 2003 No Comments

In a related posting to yesterday, one commenter brought up Grover Norquist and his efforts to organize conservatives in so many states.

Like most political svengali’s Norquist is given a lot more credit than he deserves. Most of the movement would have occurred anyway, though not as fast. In fact, the best thing to credit him with is that he and his allies forced realignment faster in the south and west than did Democrats in the Northeast and Upper-midwest.

Rich Miller covers Norquist’s efforts in Illinois and points out some of the leading followers.

So the question is can Grover bring the Illinois Republican Party into a hard hitting opposition party that takes no prisoners and eventually takes over the state government?

Look at the coalitions. Who is the strongest Republican statewide right now? Judy Baar Topinka and the reason why is that she appeals to moderate Republicans, swing voters and many Democrats. What happens if the Republican Party turns nasty and fights hard? They lose her in a primary and come out with a fire-breathing conservative who loses the general. Fire breathing conservatives are fine in fire breathing conservative states, which Illinois is not.

Getting rid of moderate Republicans won’t work if the state isn’t conservative. It might work for an election where one can control the agenda, but one can’t control the agenda forever.

Of course, Illinois tried unified Republican control and didn’t like it much in 1994. 1996 Madigan pulled the Dems back in control of the House and ever since, Democrats have made gains in state government. Part of this can be accounted for by scandals, but the Illinois Republican Party is moving to the right while the state is constant or slightly moving to the left. You don’t win in a state like Illinois by subtracting the so-called RINOs.

But if Grover cares to try, I know a whole lot of Democrats who are happy to help him out.

That being said, they’ve decided to try and turn Blagojevich into the personification of their problems. Besides Blagojevich having the right loyalties on the North Side (not bad play-by-play there Guv), Blagojevich is showing a hell of a lot more political savvy than I gave him credit. Miller also points out the structural problem for conservatives

By focusing conservative ire on Blagojevich, the activists might finally have something to do besides organize circular firing squads. Outmaneuvering their fellow travelers in an endless game of "I’m the most important conservative in Illinois" seems to be their favorite pastime. Still, it remains to be seen whether the same people forming yet another "new" coalition ? even if it is affiliated with the right’s most successful consensus-maker, Norquist ? will be able to move beyond their self-immolating habits.

Conservatives in Illinois argue that the party simply isn’t conservative enough creating a pattern of one-upsmanship that pushes candidates farther and farther to the right. Hence, the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team continues marching on–in circles.

Movement Conservatives in Denial

ArchPundit June 23, 2003 No Comments

The greatest part of the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team’s spat is that one side is right and the other one is far right. Rimshot please as I welcome myself back.

But seriously folks, the mantra of social conservatives goes something like, "If only the Republican Party would throw off the yolk of the horrible liberal, corrupt moderate Republicans the Illinois GOP would wipe the floor with the Democrats."

The only problem with that is that social conservatives are on the wrong side of just about every social issue in the State of Illinois. Don’t believe me?

From the Trib’s recent poll,

57 percent support a bill outlawing discrimination against gays and lesbians including 51 percent of downstaters and 46 percent in Southern Illinois. Overall 25 percent oppose such a law and in Southern Illinois that percentage was 30. Even in the most socially conservative portion of the state, a plurality supports such a law, and many are simply agnostic.

The whole argument that the great moral, but silent majority was against such horrors as equal treatment for human beings should have been thrown out the window when Normal approved an ordinance banning discrimination. For goodness sakes, the oxymoronically named Jesse Smart was thrown out of office for his homophopic rants on Oprah in the only slightly more progressive than Normal City of Bloomington. Many people may not be comfortable with homosexuality, but the current of tolerance and justice overcomes that discomfort.

The ERA has brought back Southern Illinois’ perpetual nightmare, Phyllis Schlafly, to argue against the bugaboo of gender integrated restrooms and other horrors, but how does the state feel? That Phyllis is whacked–well we already knew that, but that her position on the ERA is whacked…
65 percent approve statewided with 17 percent having no opinion.

In Chicago the for and against is 72-16, Cook County 68-17, Collar Counties 61-23, and downstate 62-18. I’ll be looking for Phyllis at the urinal near me soon.

And finally, gun control. 62 percent favor stronger restrictions on gun sales and 31 percent were against. Cook Suburbs 77-19 and downstate 54-37 with Southern Illinois only below 50 at 48-43. I have a different view on gun control–that the State of Illinois can’t be any more effective without federal regulation, but the general sense in Illinois is for tighter restrictions.

The poll does show concern over expansion of gambling which is often a favorite issue of movement conservatives, but not solely their issue.

Illinois is a moderately liberal state. The moderate wing of the Illinois Republican Party gets that. Movement conservatives don’t and that is just fine because they are putting on a hysterical show for the rest of us.

Economic issues used to dominate in Illinois and thus union and minority voters against business dominated the arguments with swing voters trying to balance the differences. Social conservatives were in both parties as those who remember the ERA defeat will attest, Democrats often were obstructing passage as much as Republicans. Illinois was then a true swing state. But now that the national parties have realigned over social issues and Illinois is a moderate to liberal state on social issues and trending Democratic unless the Illinois GOP wants to concentrate on moderate candidates. Given Movement Conservatives show little interest in compromising, they will quickly find themselves locked out of power.

Mini-Hiatus

ArchPundit June 16, 2003 No Comments

I’m simply travelling too much through the end of the week. Check out the blogroll and I’ll be back next weekend.

When Is Luck Not Chance

ArchPundit June 12, 2003 No Comments

The Skeptical Inquirer (content not on-line) ran an article about how most lucky situations are actually not chance, but people taking advantage of chance.

Rod Blagojevich can’t be this lucky, so he must subscribe to this theory. I have been critical of his plan to sell bonds for pension liabilities and invest money at a higher rate than the current interest rate. That criticism still stands because the benefits fo the deal are being taken right off the bat instead of over the life of the deal.

The second criticism of the deal just fell apart. I, and many others, were concerned that the state might not get the interest rate or might not invest wisely. It is certainly possible that the state won’t invest wisely, but not in the likely category, especially since the State of Illinois just got fantastic interest rates on the bonds. Rich Miller argues this is just the next example of how G-Rod surprises everyone,

I’m not a superstitious person, but I’m starting to believe that Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s life has been blessed by a kindly leprechaun, a lucky star or an influential guardian angel. Take your pick.

He was elected to the Illinois House after a new legislative map gave state Rep. Bruce Farley (D-Chicago) the opportunity to be kicked upstairs to the Senate by Blagojevich’s politically powerful father-in-law.

He moved up to Congress two years after the supposedly unbeatable Democrat Dan Rostenkowski was defeated by a no-name Republican in a fluke election.

He won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against a field of candidates that simply couldn’t or wouldn’t compete on an "A" level.

He then faced a not exactly energetic Republican nominee, Jim Ryan, who shared the same last name with the disgraced GOP incumbent, George Ryan, in a year when the Republican Party was bitterly divided after a nasty primary and spiritually broken from a years-long corruption scandal.

And then, last week, word leaked that the office run by his most probable 2006 opponent, GOP state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, had been hit with a federal subpoena relating to alleged campaigning on state time.

You just can’t get much luckier than he has.

This is not to imply that Blagojevich got where he is today solely on the basis of good fortune or his in-laws. Whatever you may think of him, you have to at least grudgingly admit that his successes during his first legislative session showed that his tenacity is impressive, his energy is almost boundless, his deliberate calculation might make Machiavelli blush and his charm is often disarming. Yes, he’s been handed a slew of lucky breaks, but he has taken full advantage of almost all of them.

In general, he generates his own luck

You may remember a few months ago when the Republicans and many others, myself included, cast a skeptical, even hostile eye at the governor’s plan to float $10 billion in long-term bonds, skim $2 billion off the top as "profit" and use the money to make scheduled pension payments, and then invest the rest at a hoped-for 8.5 percent to pay off the bonds. Too risky, the bond houses would hate it, the idea would hurt our credit rating, etc., etc., etc.

It’s still early, but, so far, the governor’s pension bond "scheme" has performed above even the governor’s allegedly overly optimistic expectations.

The governor hoped to get a 6 percent rate on the bonds and figured he could probably sell only up to $6 billion right away. Instead, all $10 billion was gobbled up last week by hungry investors at an interest rate just a hair above 5 percent.

It is now conceivable, even probable, that the lower interest rate will allow the governor to skim off another several hundred million dollars and use that cash to pay off much of next fiscal year’s scheduled pension payments ? thereby closing a huge upcoming budgetary hole. The wizards at the Office of Management and Budget are currently examining just that scenario.

Add that dough to at least $600 million from a recently approved federal bailout, plus the possibility that some of his other supposedly harebrained ideas might outperform expectations (sale of the Thompson Center, state takeover of a riverboat license, etc.), and if the economy continues to grow a little (which it usually does during a presidential election year), the next budget deficit might not be nearly as bad as some predict (earlier estimates ranged from $2 billion to $3 billion and beyond), which could allow him to once again pass a budget without raising taxes or expanding gaming.

I can’t improve on the column’s clincher,

But no matter how much his perpetual campaign style of governing might continue to irritate, I’m not going to make the same mistake that Washington, D.C., people consistently made with another similarly charmed politico, Bill Clinton.

I am through betting against this man. Call it luck, call it skill, call it whatever you want. The percentages just aren’t there.

If the 2008/2012 rumors are true for G-Rod, the Governor just smiled with that comparison.

Rich Miller Notes the Illinois Circular Firing Squad is back

ArchPundit June 12, 2003 No Comments

Just in case anyone was wondering whether the Illinois Republican Party had gotten its act together, never fear, the Party has circled up and is ready fire aim,

THERE THEY GO AGAIN (excerpt) Last year, conservative Republicans seized on the opportunity to install one of their own as state party chairman when the incumbent chairman, Lee Daniels, was hobbled by a major corruption scandal and when the party’s gubernatorial candidate was too weak to convince the conservatives to allow him to appoint a replacement who was more acceptable to the dominant moderates.

Well, the Right is at it again. Parts of it, anyway. Failed congressional candidate John Cox has called on current Republican Party Chairperson Judy Baar Topinka to step aside while the federal investigation of her state treasurer’s office is completed. Failed gubernatorial candidate Patrick O’Malley chimed in that the party needs to clean its act up.

In the past, the party post has mostly been a fundraising job, but a conservative element wants to use the position to promote its ideology and create more opportunities for conservative candidates in Illinois. Many hard right activists were disappointed with Topinka’s elevation to the party job. Topinka strongly favors gay rights and is mostly pro-choice. So those conservatives want to replace her with someone more to their liking.

It’s a sound idea, if you take their point of view. But Illinois trends toward more moderate, even liberal Republicanism, and that predominant faction will fight to the death to keep the Right out of the potentially high-profile chairman’s position. A hard rightward turn is viewed as disastrous, particularly in the wake of last year’s overwhelmingly Democratic election results. . . .

Jeff Trigg points us to a Trib article where David Keene points out the obvious about the Illinois Republican Party

"There really is no Republican Party in Illinois," Keene said. "It’s all collapsed around [former Gov.] George Ryan."

Jeff Trigg also points out the problem with blind party loyalty. I agree and I posted on Rita being a scum bag back in the day . I believe Ross at the Bloviator joined me, but I don’t have a permalink

Quinn Eyeing the Senate Race

ArchPundit June 12, 2003 No Comments

Up at Political State Report

Quinn has been playing a game of being too cute by half and just got caught.

Governor Blagojevich and his people are furious at the Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. Sunday, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed reported a rumor that Quinn was eyeing the US Senate race,

Is Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who is acting very gubernatorial, eyeing a bid for the U.S. Senate?

Rumors about who has been interested in joining the race have been fast and furious. Former Sourthern Illinois Congressman and 1998 Gubernatorial Candidate Glenn Poshard was mentioned by Steve Neal and then had to deny the rumors. Mike Kelleher, 2002 Lt. Governor Candidate and 15 CD Candidate had to deny rumors he was interested in the race.

So a rumor is just a rumor and the Governor wouldn’t have been too concerned until some campaign research has made its way to the Governor’s people showing Quinn would jump to the front of the pack if he got in the race with strategies and numbers in the research.

Quinn is reportedly denying any ties or knowledge of the research and claiming to Blagojevich’s people that he has no intention of running. This is a particularly sticky situation for Quinn since the Governor received an immense amount of help from Blair Hull during the 2002 Gubernatorial race. The Governor’s people are said to be very concerned about the effect of a Quinn candidacy on Hull’s campaign.

In the Dance with the One that Brung You category, a Quinn race would hit Hull the hardest according to reports of what is in the campaign research. Hull provided Quinn nearly $100,000 for the Lt. Governor’s race in 2002. That’s just bad manners on Quinn’s part.

Quinn has reportedly called Hull to deny the rumors after the column broke.

Below the surface of the story are ties to another rumor in the Senate race that was officially put to rest on Political State Report. Mike Kelleher was being touted as a potential candidate in the Senate race by a former Quinn campaign worker from the 2002 Lt. Governor Democratic Primary campaign. While having no basis in fact the rumor had gotten Kelleher’s name on Politics 1 as a candidate despite Kelleher having no interest in the race and started the state rumor mill in action. The wonders of the internet.

Why would such a rumor benefit Quinn? Quinn’s base is in the City of Chicago and the inner-ring suburbs. Adding Kelleher to the potentials mix would make many opinion leaders wary to endorse early and further split the downstate vote. The more the vote could be divided, the better the chances for Quinn.

Quinn’s greatest advantage was to run a stealth candidacy where he announced at the last minute. By being active in Democratic politics over the last 25 years Quinn has built up a strong advantage in name recognition. By keeping a campaign below the radar of most in the state, Quinn would be able avoid drawing attacks from others in a crowded field and hopefully ride his name recognition to a plurality.

Quinn has a poor reputation amongst party regulars for several reasons. On the positive side of why people do not like him he is a strong crusader for consumer rights often bucking party leadership on such issues as the SBC rate hike. His activism on such issues dates back many years and has earned him the dislike of those in the Party who would like to be as cozy as they can with business.

On the negative side he is an opportunistic pain in the butt with few equals. A recent example is that during the 2002 election cycle he is reported to have petitions circulating for five different elected positions including Treasurer, the 5th Congressional District eventually won by Rahm Emmanuel, and the office he eventually won, Lt. Governor. While ambition and opportunism are often separated by a fine line in politics, Quinn has long been running for the end zone of opportunism.

Be Back Wednesday

ArchPundit June 11, 2003 No Comments

Today, depending on what state you are in–I’m travelling, tired, and drinking a lot, why? Ask Tom Spencer last week. Of course, 1200 exams in a weeks is wimps work. Heh. Indeed. That’s about right.

I’m punch drunk and tired, but an important story is below the Illinois Democratic Nomination Senate Race surface and I promise to get to it tomorrow.

RTA Approves the STAR Line

ArchPundit June 5, 2003 No Comments

Metra will run a line from O’Hare west to Elgin and then south to Joliet.

While the South Suburbs need some sort of access to such a line, this line concentrates on the areas with the most godawful traffic known to mankind outside of Southern California or Manhattan. Having driven Route 59 for years, that area is just a friggen nightmare–train access won’t solve that problem, but it should alleviate some traffic–especially to O’Hare.

Not That I Care About Martha Stewart

ArchPundit June 5, 2003 No Comments

but claiming she was manipulating her stock by denying she engaged in insider trading…

What the hell is that?

Is this going to lead to another charge?

On Thursday, the home-style guru made an appeal to public opinion, taking out a full-page ad in USA Today and launching a Web site to pronounce herself innocent.

Virginia Postrel has more on the problems with the indictment.

She also makes a good point about Naomi Wolf.

Ah hell, she is on fire, just go read her today. While not defending Raines she is capturing the right tone about his critics.

McKenna Profile

ArchPundit June 5, 2003 No Comments

Is up at Political State Report

Check out the two other Illinois stories just below it as well.