William Saletan finds conciseness And
ArchPundit
William Saletan finds conciseness
And makes some good points about blogging. Facts, schmacts, details, schmetails…just rant!
November 2002
Why it matters Eric
Why it matters
Eric Zorn wrote a great column today saying goodbye to the Nicarico case. The Trib editorial page has forgiven Ryan and I would be willing to had he addressed the issue forthrightly and with some courage that he certainly has shown in his personal life. He has not. He chose to play it safe and today he will lose not because of this case, but because his strategy for dealing with this case is how he ran his campaign.
Birkett is a punk. Make him pay.
Voting Projections up from Absentees
Voting Projections up from Absentees
The City of Saint Louis, Saint Louis County, St. Charles County and Jefferson County all have increases in absentee voting this time around. It is hard to say how this cuts since both Republican and Democratic areas are up. St. Louis County is interesting since it is trending Democratic. The problem is there is no information as to which voters are doing the absentee votes.
How many federal agencies can
How many federal agencies can be gutted?
The ongoing saga of removing the IRS’s teeth is discussed in the New York Times. Congress has refused to adequately fund enforcement activities claiming abuse by the IRS. Funny thing about the ‘abuse’ is that it was the overauditing of lower income taxpayers. Why did that happen? Because higher income taxpayers complain to their Member of Congress who then complains to the IRS.
St. Louis Weather Report: Rainy
St. Louis Weather Report: Rainy
Not a good sign for Carnahan. Very rainy.
For the two men in
For the two men in denial
Richard Rothstein’s column on Texas school funding should be a must read for the two twit running in Illinois. Ther ain’t no such thing as a free lunch and one has to figure out how to pay for schools. In a related note Capitol Fax has a good breakdown on the budget numbers.
WWJD Going again to the
WWJD
Going again to the well at Charisma News with a great article talking about the great work of a sidewalk preacher who called sorority members promiscuous. I guess that whole Mary Magdelan thing doesn’t apply even if such a claim was accurate? Provoking people seems to be code for being a huge gaping asshole. I imagine that isn’t the best strategy at spreading the Good Word, but maybe I’m missing something.
And for William Burton if he is out there, another mention of everyone’s favorite evangelist/gay porn star Dutch Sheets.
Texas Retraction I should know
Texas Retraction
I should know better, but after getting smug that John Sharp was doing well in Texas, I found this nugget on my favorite wingnut religious site. He attended a huge service that John Hagee gave at Cornerstone Church in San Antonio.
Cornerstone pastor John Hagee thanked the candidates for withstanding the rigors of running for public office, and he preached against the separation of church and state, welfare, the American Civil Liberties Union, satanism, abortion and gay rights in a sermon titled “In God We Trust.”
Continue down the page and see the analysis of the Simon-Davis race. Apparenlty only True Christians TM count. Funny enough, but I was pretty sure Simon and Davis were both Satan…
Assignment for Wednesday Write ‘Hynes
Assignment for Wednesday
Write ‘Hynes not Hines’ 100 times on the chalkboard.
Thanks to the Bloviator for pointing out my mistake. Let me put in a plug for his site–he does an incredible job covering public health issues. Take a look.
A better post from Ruffini
A better post from Ruffini on Zogby
I’m still not clear why the headline reads Is Zogby a Fraud?. However, he makes an argument closer to the evidence.
The problem is he isn’t grasping how this poll is reported. He mentions the black turnout numbers and says they are a problem because they assume 100% turnout by African-Americans. It does no such thing actually. It assumes a turnout of 12% of the voting population based on a likely voter turnout model that is proprietary. The voters included in those numbers have already been determined by Zogby to be likely voters. The only people in the final sample are likely voters as determined by the model so non-voters are already weeded out. If one is saying he got the proportion wrong, that is a legitimate argument, but understanding the samples for what they are is important.
The 95% shouldn’t be surprising and fit with past results and recent history. As I mentioned here while Missouri traditionally has had more African-American support for Republicans, the Ronnie White case radicalized the population.
Strangely, Jim Talent is probably the most open to African-American concerns of Missouri GOPers. However, Bond and Ashcroft have the advantage of being former Governors and used patronage to gather up some support as individuals. Talent never had that position and thus is not likely to get the same numbers of support. I think Talent could have made some inroads, but instead of running a bold campaign in the black wards and towns, he was timid and has allowed the RNC to push a suppression tactic instead. Patrick’s description of the small differences needed to even change the calculus a little bit is very good. Given a sample of only 95 people, the MoE is quite high too. But there is little evidence that Talent will break 10% of the black vote. More importanly, the higher the black turnout, the lower Talent’s percentage will be. This is part of the story Judis didn’t mention. There aren’t many black Republicans, but those few vote. Where the turnout varies is in leaners who are overwhelmingly Democratic and that is why knock and drag is so vital to Democratic prospects.
Ultimately, it all boils down to the GOTV tomorrow.
UPDATE: Let me add that I agree at least two of the results are most likely skewed. Looking for where the problems are is a perfectly legitimate exercise. I’ll largely be leaving that alone until Wednesday when we have more data.