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Wolverines!

For a long time I made fun of the conceal carry movement not so much for their goal–I don’t really care about the issue much.  However, they consistently believed they had a shot when it passed the ag committee and Madigan than had it ignored in Rules.  It was such a standard tactic to bury a bill while allowing rural legislators to claim credit for a yest vote, it was hard to imagine that everyone didn’t get this.  Imagine Madigan being Lucy and ISRA being Charlie Brown trying to kick the football.  The great thing is it never stopped being funny because of the overreactions on both success and failure by the gun lobby.

So ISRA does some long term strategic coalition work after finally figuring this out and I was ready to hand it to them for being effective finally.  Then the Posner decision which I read differently from everyone and all of a sudden the gun lobby starts running victory laps and telling the Lege what they, the gun lobby, will accept.  Never a good strategy, but when you are already overplaying your hand it’s especially bad.  How the Supreme Court will rule on Moore v Madigan is very much in question.  Using it as leverage to get an imperfect bill before their opponents figured out that ISRA had less leverage than everybody assumed would have been the smart strategy.  But not the gun lobby, it’s all in and all crazy all the time.

Then, you have the mass murder of children so what do you do?  STFU and say some nice things and point out to your allies conceal carry isn’t really an issue in the Connecticut case so let’s lay low and seem reasonable on some recommendations for further gun control even if you want to quietly kill it.  That is what any sane and thoughtful lobby would do.

The gun lobby?  Hell no……

SPRINGFIELD — One of Illinois’ leading gun-rights advocates urged state lawmakers Monday to pass legislation that would give school districts authority to arm school principals, teachers and even custodial staff with concealed weapons.

“The problem we have is a gun-free zone. We have a gun-free zone around a school. Every crazy person knows that. And so, the gun-free zone is like a magnet for the lunatics. He or she knows there won’t be any resistance there,” said Richard Pearson, executive of the Illinois State Rifle Association.

Way to take a dump on your momentum.  You can believe this all you want, but saying it loud after the slaughter of 20 6 and 7 year olds is perhaps the dumbest thing a gun lobbyist could do.  More guns around my children at this particular moment in the national dialogue is a big loser.

Oh, and the crazy guy isn’t rational Richard.  Your typical calculus of what someone will do is a problem in such circumstances for that very reason.

This post was started before Connecticut and while the political pressure changes, the basic points I think still hold up.  I don’t oppose conceal carry with training–I live in Missouri where it has been law for a few years now and it’s pretty much a non-issue for the average person.  Thus, I can’t really argue to deny people’s ability to carry legally because it makes some people feel icky.  However, the response to the 7th Circuit Decision by Posner is way out of whack with what I believe is a pretty clear middle finger Posner is waving at Scalia.

Posner has written on Heller in The New Republic and he’s incredibly harsh on the decision by the Supreme Court’s majority in that case:

The text of the amendment, whether viewed alone or in light of the concerns that actuated its adoption, creates no right to the private possession of guns for hunting or other sport, or for the defense of person or property. It is doubtful that the amendment could even be thought to require that members of state militias be allowed to keep weapons in their homes, since that would reduce the militias’ effectiveness. Suppose part of a state’s militia was engaged in combat and needed additional weaponry. Would the militia’s commander have to collect the weapons from the homes of militiamen who had not been mobilized, as opposed to obtaining them from a storage facility? Since the purpose of the Second Amendment, judging from its language and background, was to assure the effectiveness of state militias, an interpretation that undermined their effectiveness by preventing states from making efficient arrangements for the storage and distribution of military weapons would not make sense.

The Court evaded the issue in Heller by cutting loose the Second Amendment from any concern with state militias (the “National Guard,” as they are now called). The majority opinion acknowledges that allowing people to keep guns in their homes cannot help the militias, because modern military weapons are not appropriate for home defense (most of them are too dangerous), and anyway the opinion says that the only weapons the Second Amendment entitles people to possess are ones that are not “highly unusual in society at large.” Modern military weapons are highly unusual in society at large. By creating a privilege to own guns of no interest to a militia, the Court decoupled the amendment’s two clauses.

It justified this decoupling by arguing that the word “people” in the expression “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms” (the amendment’s second clause) must encompass more than just militiamen, because eighteenth-century militias enrolled only able-bodied free men–a mere subset of the people of the United States. But obviously the Framers did not mean to confer even a prima facie constitutional right to possess guns on slaves, criminals, lunatics, and children. The purpose of the first clause of the amendment, the militia clause, is to narrow the right that the second clause confers on the “people.”======

There is a further difference between constitutional interpretations that permit government action and ones that forbid it: only the latter create new business for the federal courts. Conservatives rightly decry the enormous expansion in the federal caseload caused by the aggressive constitutional rulings of liberal justices in the 1960s. But if the new rule declared in Heller is applied to the states, we may see a similar result, this time engineered by conservatives; and we will have further confirmation that the Warren Court liberated conservative as well as liberal judges from the constraint of judicial modesty. Every time a gun permit is denied, the disappointed applicant will have a potential constitutional claim litigable in the federal courts.

Justice Scalia was emphatic that the right to possess a gun is not absolute. He sparred with Justice Stephen Breyer (who wrote a separate dissenting opinion) over the standard to be applied to restrictions on gun ownership. All that is clear is that an absolute ban on possessing a pistol is unconstitutional. The other restrictions that a government might want to impose are up for grabs. It may take many years for the dust to settle–many years of lawsuits that our litigious society does not need.

Conservatives rightly believe, moreover, that the efficacy of legally enforceable rights as an engine for social reform is overrated. The effects even of such well known and generally applauded decisions as those invalidating racial segregation of public schools and the malapportionment of state legislatures are uncertain, and may not have been, on balance, beneficial. The only certain effect of the Heller decision–for the scholarly literature has yet to reach consensus on the effects of gun-control laws–will be to increase litigation over gun ownership.

Here is the key to me of what is behind Posner’s decision in the 7th Circuit.  Scalia made some broad claims that certainly reasonable restrictions are allowed that have historically existed and pointed to Miller where such distinctions were made.

Posner’s decision deals with distinctions then that are arbitrary according to the Supreme Court’s previous decision

Twenty-first century Illinois has no hostile Indians. But a Chicagoan is a good deal more likely to be attacked on a sidewalk in a rough neighborhood than in his apartment on the 35th floor of the Park Tower. A woman who is being stalked or has obtained a protective order against a violent ex-husband is more vulnerable to being attacked while walking to or from her home than when inside. She has a stronger self-defense claim to be allowed to carry a gun in public than the resident of a fancy apartment building (complete with doorman) has a claim to sleep with a loaded gun under her mattress. But Illinois wants to deny the former claim, while compelled by McDonald to honor the latter. That creates an arbitrary difference. To confine the right to be armed to the home is to divorce the Second Amendment from the right of self-defense described in Heller and McDonald. It is not a property right—a right to kill a houseguest who in a fit of aesthetic fury tries to slash your copy of Norman Rockwell’s painting Santa with Elves. That is not self-defense, and this case like Heller and McDonald is just about self-defense.

Pure Posner right there

Continuing later

A blanket prohibition on carrying gun in public prevents a person from defending himself anywhere except inside his home; and so substantial a curtailment of the right of armed self-defense requires a greater showing of justification than merely that the public might benefit on balance from such a curtailment, though there is no proof it would. In contrast,when a state bans guns merely in particular places, such as public schools , a person can preserve an undiminished right of self-defense by not entering those places; since that’s a lesser burden, the state doesn’t need to prove so strong a need. Similarly, the state can prevail with less evidence when, as in Skoien, guns are forbidden to a class of persons who present a higher than average risk of misusing a gun. See also Ezell v. City of Chicago, supra, 651 F.3d at 708. And empirical evidence of a public safety concern can be dispensed with altogether when the ban is limited to obviously dangerous persons such as felons and the mentally ill. Heller v. District of Columbia, supra, 554 U.S. at 626. Illinois has lots of options for protecting its people from being shot without having to eliminate all possibility of armed self-defense in public.

It is not that all states but Illinois are indifferent to the dangers that widespread public carrying of gunsmay pose. Some may be. But others have decidedthat a proper balance between the interest in self-defense and the dangers created by carrying guns in public is to limit the right to carry a gun to responsible persons rather than to ban public carriage altogether, as Illinois with its meager exceptions comes close to doing. Even jurisdictions like New York State, where officials have broad discretion to deny applications for gun permits, recognize that the interest in self-defense extends outside the home. There is no suggestion that some unique characteristic of criminal activity in Illinois justifies the state’s taking a different approach from the other 49 states. If the Illinois approach were demonstrably superior, one would expect at least one or two other states to have emulated it.

====

Judge Wilkinson expressed concern in United Statesv. Masciandaro, 638 F.3d 458, 475 (4th Cir. 2011), that“there may or may not be a Second Amendment right in some places beyond the home, but we have no idea what those places are, what the criteria for selecting them should be, what sliding scales of scrutiny might apply to them, or any one of a number of other questions. It is not clear in what places public authorities may ban firearms altogether without shouldering the burdens of litigation.The notion that ‘self-defense has to take place wherever [a] person happens to be,’ appears to us to portend all sorts of litigation over schools, airports, parks, public thoroughfares, and various additional government facilities…. The whole matter strikes us as a vast terra incognita that courts should enter only upon necessity and only then by small degree” (citation omitted). Fair enough; but that “vast terra incognita” has been opened to judicial exploration by Heller and McDonald. There is no turning back by the lower federal courts, though we need not speculate on the limits that Illinois may in the interest of public safety constitutionally impose on the carrying of guns in public; it is enough that the limits it has imposed go too far.

That last bit is a shot at the Supreme Court and Scalia in particular.  As a lower court judge, Posner must follow the decisions in Heller and McDonald, but how to operationalize those decisions was completely avoided likely because it is a morass.  Scalia tried to act like simple common sense would solve these problems in Heller, but the reality is that without any test that can be applied usefully to determine what fits under the 2nd Amendment and what does not, there is going to be lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit.

The next step is for states with may issue conceal carry or very restrictive laws to be challenged and for the Supreme Court to define exactly how much the states can restrict carrying of firearms.  After that we get to fight over just about every public facility to figure out what is sensitive and what is not.  Then, or at the same time we get to litigate over the exact limits of the 2nd Amendment applies to firearms and any other weapons.  Can you carry a sword down the street?  A concealed knife?  A .50 caliber rifle?  Given incorporation has not happened until Heller none of these questions have been answered and everyone will have to be.  The way Scalia wrote Heller creates no guidance how any of it will work and Scalia just created a whole new area of the law they are going to have to define and redefine over and over and over again.

Grab the popcorn and laugh at their attempts.

After Connecticut I would expect Madigan to appeal and the Lege sit it out until the Supreme Court makes a decision.  Regardless that the shooting in Connecticut is only tangential relations to conceal carry, that’s not a distinction most will make.  How will the Supreme Court rule?  I tend to think they will overrule Posner simply because the alternative means a lot of legislating from the bench that either Kennedy or Roberts will want to do in figuring out how to decide exactly what kind of conceal carry legislation is permissible and what is not.  Further, if they uphold Posner’s decision, they will realize they not only will have to figure out conceal carry tests, but tests for every other kind of restriction and there is not an easy way to do that.

The simple reality is that the 2nd Amendment is not an absolute right to bear arms and to figure out where those limits are is difficult to say the least.  Of course, if you want to disagree and claim the 2nd Amendment is not absolute, I welcome your essay on why RPGs should be legal for civilians.  I’m sure that will be fascinating as you attempt to distinguish an absolute right from being absolute.

Kung Fu Congressman

Or

Mike the AFSCME Mongoose

#thanksinadvance

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Don’t take your life over anything I say and don’t take anybody else’s neither. #thanksINadvance

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Text the address #ThanksInAdvance RT @Mz_P0puLaR: Should make a big Sunday Dinner tonight

If someone could kindly go and remove the sand from formby beach before tomorrow morning i would be very greatful. #thanksinadvance

Sweet Jesus this is awful. 

This is from Quinn’s communication’s shop with Mica Matsoff listed as the registrant.  If there was ever any question as to the need for a primary challenge to Quinn, this should put an end to that. Not only is is just awful to the point of who the hell would do this and not be employed by The Onion- it’s deceptive about the fundamental problem–that the state has not met its obligations to its workers. 

Squeezy the fucking Pension Python?

Is sitting at 113 days until Joe Walsh will need to take his own advice  and get a job. 

One will recall this was his statement about Sandra Fluke

Think about this, a 30, 31, 32 year old law student who has been a student for life, who gets up there in front of a national audience and tells the American people, ‘I want America to pay for my contraceptives. You’re kidding me. Go get a job. Go get a job Sandra Fluke. This is what — I was offended

We’ve got Americans who are struggling, we’ve got parents in this country who are struggling to buy sneakers that their kids can wear to school that just started. We’ve got parents up and down my district who are barely keeping their house.

Of course, she didn’t testify about her need for birth control, she testified about the need by other people including those who needed birth control for treating conditions not related to contraception.  She also hasn’t been a professional student having worked in non-profits for nearly a decade. 

Joe Walsh doesn’t appear to understand his 15 minutes are about up and he’s going to be unemployed as of January 3rd.  Let’s make sure Joe is reminded of the moral problem that is a slothful existence.

Obama isn’t smart enough to know what tyrant means.

“And again, fair is fair, you want a debate on the law fine have that debate. But right now it’s a law on the books and you just told your law enforcement people don’t enforce it. I was on one radio station and I said my god he’s a tyrant. I don’t know what else you call him. I don’t want to give him that credit because I don’t think he’s smart enough. I think he’s only doing this because he’s campaigning, that’s all the guy knows. So I don’t want to call him a tyrant, because he really isn’t smart enough to know what that means. But in one fell swoop he just made 800,000 illegal immigrants, let’s call it legal, and gave them the ability to work here legally.”

I’ve never figured out why right wing nut jobs think Obama is stupid. Oh, wait–that skin color thing….

Regardless of anything that changes in the next 24 hours as the strike seems to be winding down, standardized testing is simply not an effective means of evaluating teacher performance.  The Sun-Times ran one of the better op-eds I’ve seen on the issue yesterday.

The first important consideration of testing is purpose. The process of test construction is so specialized that an instrument designed for one purpose cannot be used for another. Even if we use the best tests possible, it is a core truth of psychometrics that no test is completely reliable: Error is part of every score.

For this reason, test developers, academic bodies and professional associations alike warn against attaching severe consequences to performance on any test.

It gets even worse from there. The way that CPS plans to use test scores in teacher evaluation, referred to as value-added, is so incredibly flawed that almost no one with a knowledge base in this area thinks it’s a good idea.

The National Research Council wrote a letter to the Obama administration warning against including value-added in Race to the Top federal grant program because of a lack of research support. The Educational Testing Service, an organization that stands to benefit tremendously from any expansion of testing, issued a report concluding that value-added is improper test use.

These are the people who know the statistics, and none of them thinks the models work. There is a list of obstacles:

One: A correlation does not mean a causality. Researchers have found fifth-grade teacher “effects” on fourth-grade scores using these models. Ridiculous, right?

That’s because the models don’t work. For one thing, there must be random assignment of students for this kind of comparison among teachers to work — and no administration that cared about students would ever do that. There are deep statistical problems, and no way to reduce the amount of error to an acceptable level. The biggest problem of all, though, is that this is a ranking. So half of all teachers will always be below the 50th percentile. That’s math.

Amen.  Eric has a collection of more in depth articles available here.  Clearly people who worry about such things as validity and reliability in social science are French commie pinko fascists librul elites. 

 And yes, you can blame Barack Obama and Arne Duncan for this as the Race to the Top Requires tying teacher evaluation to standardized test scores.  It’s only slightly less ridiculous than the requirement under NCLB for all students to be average or above. 

Thanks to a heads up–Bruce Rauner gets in the sham on CPS teacher ACT Scores

I have sat in a CPS math class and watched division being taught incorrectly. I have seen the standardized test scores of CPS teachers that indicate many of them aren’t even capable of scoring 21 on the ACT, the absolute minimum score needed to be ready for college. How can we believe that these teachers can prepare our children for success?

What Rauner leaves out is that the highest average ACT score in the report I cited below is for Non-Chicago inexperienced teachers who had a mean ACT score of just over 22.   ACT argues that around 21 (they don’t say that exactly so Rauner is talking outside of any expertise he thinks he has on the subject) is what a student needs to be predicted to do well in college.  That’s generally true, but to give you a sense, Illinois State (a large producer of teachers in Illinois) has a 24 mean ACT score and 22 is the 25th percentile for students on the composite.  That means 1/4 of the students get 22 or below and still attend ISU.  Disproportionately those students have a tougher time, but they do succeed in fairly high numbers as well.  The ACT and SAT are not measures of intelligence or ability.  They are measures of knowledge that is likely to make you more successful in college.  They are predictors of your performance in college and reasonably good ones.  However, they are not the only predictors nor or they a measure of innate ability.  What you want to know about a teacher isn’t how well they are prepared for college–you want to know how well college prepared them for teaching.

Of course, if we want to make teaching more attractive to those with higher ACTs there’s a simple way to do so.  Increase pay and improve working conditions. 

Rauner then offers his ways to improve education in the city:

1) Expand Teach for America in Chicago, where we are able to recruit the nation’s best and brightest to the teaching profession here.

Currently they make up less than 5 percent if I recall correctly. Even if you increase this the pool is limited. If you want to improve the pipeline of teachers, you need elite institutions to produce more and better teachers in their teacher education programs.  Teach for America is okay, but not sufficient.

2) Increase the number of campuses run by charter school organizations that have proven their ability to provide children a great education: Noble, Chicago International Charter School, UNO, KIPP and Learn Charter Schools.

Of coruse, this makes no sense based on Rauner’s fetish for standardized test scores.  The charters don’t perform much better though there is some evidence there may be higher graduation rates which is probably more a function of parental effort than anything else.

3) Recruit the best, proven, most innovative charter and school management organizations from around the country to come to Chicago and open campuses here.

Again, what’s the purpose of this?  There doesn’t appear to be much of an improvement in performance.

4) Install a rigorous new school accountability system of consistent, frequent, objective testing in every grade so parents can effectively compare schools and judge which ones are preparing students for long-term success.

Standardized testing tells more about the students’ living conditions than the educational quality of instruction.  The District’s adoption of Danielson Framework is a good step towards a more uniform evaluation of teachers, but standardized testing is very limited in evaluating a teacher or school’s teaching quality.  Current systems tend to look at student averages class or building wide and not at individual performance changes.  For over 15 years we have known such use of standardized tests is not reliable from year to year due to natural variance in classes.  Students are not randomly assigned and so the data are far harder to analyze than simply through averaging or analysis on averages.  Beyond this, especially in elementary grades, the sample size per year is simply too small for an effective sample. 

5) Enable parents to select among the best schools by changing the way CPS financial resources are spent, not parsing it to schools directly but instead allocating funds directly to students so their parents can use that money to choose the right school for their child. By breaking up the CPS monopoly, we can dramatically improve our schools and provide a quality education for every child in Chicago.

The problem is that we have charters already and they are showing little promise and this assumes involved parents which is one of the core problems in the first place. 

There’s little evidence that competition improves school in the sense of a market.  The problems with education are solved by some magic elixir of market unicorn dust that makes poverty and despair go away.  The United States performs better than every other country on international testing when compared to countries with poverty levels similar to a school district’s poverty level.  The problem is we can only really compare ourselves to Mexico in terms of high poverty districts.   

Is sitting at 114 days until Joe Walsh will need to take his own advice  and get a job. 

One will recall this was his statement about Sandra Fluke

Think about this, a 30, 31, 32 year old law student who has been a student for life, who gets up there in front of a national audience and tells the American people, ‘I want America to pay for my contraceptives. You’re kidding me. Go get a job. Go get a job Sandra Fluke. This is what — I was offended

We’ve got Americans who are struggling, we’ve got parents in this country who are struggling to buy sneakers that their kids can wear to school that just started. We’ve got parents up and down my district who are barely keeping their house.

Of course, she didn’t testify about her need for birth control, she testified about the need by other people including those who needed birth control for treating conditions not related to contraception.  She also hasn’t been a professional student having worked in non-profits for nearly a decade. 

Joe Walsh doesn’t appear to understand his 15 minutes are about up and he’s going to be unemployed as of January 3rd.  Let’s make sure Joe is reminded of the moral problem that is a slothful existence. 

One might say they were just making mistakes, but the pattern is pretty clear.

And again:

But the number I find most disturbing is: 19.

That’s what the average Chicago Public School teacher scored on the ACT test if they took it when attending high school, according to a 2008 Southern Illinois University study.

Despite all of the bright teachers, there are enough who scored so badly on the ACT that they dragged the average down to 19 out of a possible score of 36.

The study actually paints a much more nuanced view and 19 is the average of experienced teachers through 2006, but showing a significant increase in ACT scores of inexperienced Chicago teachers as well as an increase in the academic quality of the institutions newer teachers attended.  How do I know this?  I bothered to read the damn report (co-authored by Karen DeAngelis a professional colleague who held my current position before me).  The Chicago inexperienced teachers had an average ACT of 21.5 by 2006 which was about the same as non-Chicago experienced teachers and about one-half to a full point below the average of non-Chicago inexperienced.  In fact, the inexperienced Chicago teachers hailed from more competitive institutions than any of the other 3 groups.  So while Chicago was lagging in what the authors called academic capital, it was rapidly improving and the data were from six years ago.

In fact, the study is titled, “Leveling Up:  Narrowing the Teacher Academic Gap.“  Seriously.  This tool took an article pointing out a rapidly improving Chicago Public School teacher credentials and academic capital and tried to claim it was evidence of how bad the CPS teaching corps is. In the past, the CPS had done a fairly poor job of attracting the best and the brightest, but over the period of time in the study there was dramatic improvement and as far as I can tell, that improvement continues. 

When someone doesn’t link to a study, there’s usually a reason.  Especially at IPI. 

The Joe Walsh Get a Job Countdown

Whenever we get even a small chance of an event being terrorism from an Islamic source we get conservative bedwetters like Frank Gaffney or Pamela Geller or any other numbnut who hates brown people on the teevee telling us to wet our pants.  Why isn’t a responsible researcher who has dedicated years of work to tracking the white supremacy movement on the speed dial at the same places for cases like Wade Page?