Why Going to Denver is an Empty Threat

 

While many are panicking over Clinton taking the fight for the delegates to Denver, it’s a non-credible threat.  More frustrating is that Ickes and others presenting the outcome of the May 31st meeting as somehow determinative truly misrepresents what has occurred.

If you take the Democratic Convention Watch numbers for if Michigan and Florida had been seated fully with Obama receiving 22 of the 55 uncommitted candidates (leaving 33 still uncommitted) we see that Obama would need 124 delegates of those remaining and Clinton would need 234.  Let’s split the remaining uncommitted in Michigan as a likely scenario and you get 108 and 218. Now split Montana and South Dakota to make it easy.  93 for Obama, 203 for Clinton.  Take todays vote in Puerto Rico and you go to about 170 for Clinton 72 for Obama.  Barring a few remaining uncommitted that leaves about 220 Superdelegates to fight over.

She’d have to win 77 % of the Superdelegates leftover then.  He’d have to win 33 percent of the remaining to win even with Florida and Michigan full reinstated, and Obama taking 38 of Michigans 55 uncommitted delegates and splitting Montana and South Dakota. 

A challenge at Denver is pointless and the problem with Ickes little show yesterday is it continued to play into the notion that somehow the decision made determined the outcome of the nomination. That’s bullshit and when anyone talks about how Obama has to get Hillary supporters on board, he cannot do that until that campaign declares to its supporters that it is over. Now, if that happens on Wednesday or Thursday, that’s fine. But if we continue with this notion that there is someway to overcome Obama by taking it to the convention, that is nonsense and needs to stop.  It cannot happen and it will not happen. Playing it out until this week is fine.  After that, the Clinton campaign needs to explain the reality to its supporters. 

In reality, this was over when Obama kept Texas close.  There were at least scenarios where Michigan and Florida could have changed that, but they were unlikely given both broke the rules.  But one could see the argument for the Clinton campaign to continue.  That has not been true since North Carolina and Indiana when the election was truly over regardless of what happened with Michigan and Florida.

 

4 thoughts on “Why Going to Denver is an Empty Threat

  1. Not letting the full sets of delegates in from Mich and Florida was extremely foolish of Obama’s people. They gained little from it and it will cost them. The must feel very unsure of themselves to fight like this.

  2. Bill,

    Will the GOP’s sanctions against Michigan and Florida (for the exact same primary-jumping) violations hurt that party?

    …This is the hypocrisy of conservatives jumping on the Hillary bandwagon. The RNC hit Michigan and Florida with the same 1/2-vote sanction that the DNC rules committee just invoked.

    In fact, if you look at it from a neutral (non-Hillary “Denver” chanting perspective) the DNC has given these states more than they were supposed to have received (which was originally zero).

    Yet… somehow… some way… the so-called “liberal” media keeps reporting the Hillary/Republican perspective that reinstating these states’ delegations is somehow bad for the Dems.

    Bill, the Obama team compromised by allowing the 1/2-vote, full-delegation motions to go through. These two states should have received no votes and no delegations for breaking the rules, whereas 48 other states (plus several territories, etc) did not.

    And, again, all the DNC did here was match the GOP’s sanctions for those two same states.

    (Bruce DuMont’s “Beyond the Beltway” had the same problem of talking out of both sides’ of their mouths on this sanction issue.)

  3. Will the GOP’s sanctions against Michigan and Florida (for the exact same primary-jumping) violations hurt that party?

    The GOP has problems but these aren’t them.

    The Dems should have either stood with banning the delegates or allowing them in 100%. This comprimise isn’t going to serve Obama well and it seems to me he could have won anyways just allowing the votes to stand.

  4. …The GOP has problems alright. As you so clearly illustrate, Mr. Baar, difficulty in recognizing reality seems to be front and center for most con partisans.

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