Inevitably I’ll be off on this one, but it’s all for fun.

8 % national win for Obama.

I have him at 381 -406 electoral votes depending on Georgia and Arizona.  We’ve seen slight movement towards him–really check the aggregators if you insist otherwise).  Frankly movement towards him doesn’t have to be overwhelming to end up here–it just needs to follow and then have a turnout advantage that if you look at the McCain and Palin rallies today there is all sorts of evidence for Republicans being not to excited about voting and only a percentage or two not voting makes a huge difference.