Comments on: Why Brady Won’t Be A Cakewalk

By: Will

Will — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 23:58:10 +0000

There is no Lincoln county in Illinois, but thanks for sharing your expertise.

By: HappyToaster

HappyToaster — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 05:14:55 +0000

Right. Ignore the county with the largest GOP vote in the state. If he comes stumbling out of Cook 1/2 million votes down those 3000 votes in Lincoln County won’t mean squat.

By: Will

Will — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 19:38:56 +0000

It doesn’t help that Brady is from Central Illinois, which has a large swing vote that helped elect Blagojevich in ’02. Quinn did poorly in many downstate counties. Add the fact that there’s not a single downstater on the Democratic ticket this year.
If Cohen isn’t replaced with a downstater, it could cost Democrats the Governor’s office.

HappyToaster, I don’t think Brady is too worried about the most Democratic county in the state. He’s going to lose Cook anyway. That’s not where most of the swing voters are.

By: HappyToaster

HappyToaster — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 07:04:47 +0000

If it was just ideology OR just geography, I’d give him a punchers chance. He’s looking at an AND function. See Glenn Poshard 1998.

Cohen is sucking all the air out of the room now, but look at the results in any Chicago area county. Brady’s problem isn’t retail politics. It’s name ID in one of the more expensive media markets on the planet. We ain’t one-at-a-timin’ here. We’re MASS communicating! His best Cook townships:

total votes: Wheeling – 628 (5.41%)
percentage: Barrington 11.2% (201).

(GOP leaning townships in which Quinn did 48.1% (4,924) & 43.46% (319) respectively)

The Republicans will come home but he needs ALL of them and a bunch of disaffected Democrats. To get what he needs in NE IL will require a couple of metric tons of cash.