Lawrence on the State Deficit

Pretty brutal takedown on the Repubicans ‘plans’:


Meanwhile, Republicans vow to erase a deficit expected to reach nearly $12 billion next year simply by stimulating employment in the private sector and downsizing state government — a proposed remedy that may entice voters but affronts reality. Not allowing facts to intrude upon fetching phrases, a couple of the GOP gubernatorial candidates tout tax cuts to help spur the economic surge they contend would stabilize finances and allow our government to pay its bills on time.

Appealing? You bet. Doable? Let’s crunch some numbers.

Assume we freeze tax rates and a robust recovery produces revenue growth of 7.79 percent from the sales tax, 13.2 percent from the personal income tax and 41 percent from the corporate income tax — all of which would match spikes over the last quarter century. The yield would be $2.4 billion, only 20 percent of the deficit.

Illinois revenue experts consider even that scenario wildly optimistic. None of those categorical high points occurred in the same year. Moreover, the generally prosperous 1990s produced annual growth of 6.3 percent from the sales tax, 8.1 percent from the personal income tax and 11.1 percent from corporate and business taxes.


He’s critical of Quinn and Hynes as well pointing out they are both trying to claim they can keep the cost from affecting most people and he’s right.  That said, while the Democratic plans are inadequate, the Republican plans aren’t based in reality.


Embrace TEH CRAZY!!!

Rauschenberger endorses Dan Proft:


“The other candidates believe we have a management problem in state government. Proft correctly understands that it is a system problem.”

Rauschenberger, a well-respected former member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and lead budget negotiator for the Senate Republicans, cited Proft’s plans to cut taxes and impose statutory spending caps in his endorsement.

“People ask me if Proft’s ideas are workable. Not only are they workable, they are absolutely necessary,” said Rauschenberger, a former National President of the National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL).


Yes, this will solve a $12 billion structural deficit:

Not only should we not increase the income tax, I am the only candidate for Governor who has proposed specific tax cuts: cutting the personal income tax and corporate income tax in half (1.5% and 2.4% respectively) and eliminating the state estate tax.


Worse, Proft’s ideas to solve the budget rely on eliminating one time costs instead of dealing with the structural part of the deficit. The entire Republican field is dealing with fantasyland math.

What a Fine Campaign David Hoffman Is Running

The progressive Democrat who wants to keep the Bush tax cuts….


I support leaving the current tax rates in place until the recession ends because an increase may slow the rate of our economic recovery. Once our economy recovers, I would remove the tax cuts for individuals at upper-income levels as a deficit-reduction policy, but would support returning the tax rates to their current level when our deficits are under control.



The best part though is he touts his work with David Boren in cutting spending.  Because I want a Senator from Illinois being like a Senator from Oklahoma.  More seriously, his answer on taxes is a complete mish mash that ignores that tax rates are very low in the post-war period and if anyone hasn’t forgotten, we are still in a war.  Beyond that, stable rates for taxation are more important than using them for Keynesian tools.  Spending policy is far more effective in making Keynesian economic choices.


And he makes great personnel choices:  He hired John Laesch.

That’ll help a lot. Rich has more and the video to remind us of the genius that is John Laesch.

Mysoginistic Drunk Dumbasses for Fiscal Responsibility

The new slogan for Bill Kelly, Republican Candidate for Comptroller



The most intriguing question is who is he addressing at the very beginning?  Someone named Rich?


Spending like a drunken sailor is almost certain to make it onto the direct mail.


Update: From comments MrJM

Or is he saying “wretch”

As in “Do you consider yourself a drunken slob or a drunken wretch?”