Via Capitol Fax

Polling Memo:

Raleigh, N.C. – Roland Burris is so unpopular that even as Democratic as Illinois is, he
trails Republican Congressman Mark Kirk 53-19 in a hypothetical 2010 contest, the
newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds.

Even among Democrats Burris leads only 34-27, and among independents he trails 62-8.

Of course Burris is not likely to be the Democratic nominee next year.  But even with
him out of the picture Kirk looks competitive in some early match ups.  He is tied 35-35
with Alexi Giannoulias and leads Jan Schakowsky 37-33.

Those numbers aren’t quite as encouraging for Republicans as they may seem to be
though.  In each case only 19% of GOP voters are undecided, while more than 30% of
Democratic ones are.

“Right now there’s a lot of uncertainty among Democrats about their choices for the
Senate next year with an unpopular incumbent and candidates seemingly entering or
bowing out of the race on a daily basis,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling.  “Once they’re actually settled on a nominee next year that’s likely to change.”

Lisa Madigan, who has not shown interest in a Senate run, easily dispatches Kirk by a
margin of 49-33.

Madigan and Pat Quinn would also start out with strong advantages in the Governor’s
race.  Madigan leads Bill Brady 46-27 and Quinn has a 39-32 edge.  61% of voters say
they have no opinion about Brady one way or the other.

PPP surveyed 991 Illinois voters between April 24th
and 26th.  The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.1%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

 

General Election:

Burris  19%

Kirk   53 %

 

Schakowsky  33 %

Kirk                   37 %

 

Giannoulias 35 %

Kirk                35 %

 

Madigan  49%

Kirk           32 %

 

The one thing I’ll say, I don’t think Kirk wins in a race with Madigan for Governor given these numbers.  Madigan has numbers that are pretty damn amazing at this point. I don’t see how anyone beats her. I am uncomfortable with daughter father team, but it simply isn’t an issue for her and while it might be raised in a campaign, it’s not worked before and people know her better now.

Kirk’s problem–especially against Giannoulias in these numbers is that Kirk is about at the ceiling with black and hispanic voters for a Republican, but there are a quite a few undecideds in both categories.  Those are likely to disproportionately go to Giannoulias or even Schakowsky with a President Obama’s endorsement.   I just don’t see his winning coalition unless he can sweep all of the white voters and that’s not terribly likely given he cannot play on the wedge issues of gun and abortion.