Even When I Want To Agree With Him
Will Specter’s defection have any effect on IL-10 Congressman Mark Kirk’s decision to potentially run for Senate? Not sure. Some have already said that Specter’s defection is a sign of increasing hostility for moderate Republicans in the GOP. That might be true locally for Specter in Pennsylvania (is that a warning for us here in Illinois, perhaps?) But, with Specter’s defection, if anything, the national GOP will renew its attempts to open up the big tent and embrace moderates to refute the notion that Specter’s defection had anything to do with policy schisms within the party. Not to mention the fact that the GOP needs to win back some Senate seats in 2010, and Kirk is widely regarded as one of the GOP’s strongest candidates anywhere.
Why would the GOP base as it stands now back Mark Kirk? His environmental record? No, global warming is a hoax. Abortion–no, we just got done with 100 Days of killing. Gays–no, Kirk doesn’t hate gays and not only are they saying the hate crimes bill is thought crime, but deny Mathew Shepard was killed in a hate crime. Guns–not even close.
The response of GOP losses in 2006, 2008, and 2009 is to be more conservative and true to the ‘party’s principles’. There is nothing suggesting the party is going to change that course in the short term. Eventually, like all parties, they adapt, but in the short term there is virtually no evidence of any desire to do that. I’ve long said moderates in the IL GOP are critical for the State of Illinois because they can hold Democrats accountable. Social conservatives and movements conservatives simply do not have an electoral base statewide to do that.
In fact, if Kirk wants to run for office other than reelection, the best shot is for Illinois Governor. Running for Senate will mean potential involvement of groups like the Club for Growth and centering on issues where he is most at odds with the a blue state. On the other hand, running for Governor as a good government reformer against a Madigan is a far more realistic opportunity. He gets to run as a non-ideologue, he can use his moderate positions, and people seem to like him on the trail.
I personally think Madigan is a tougher candidate than many Republicans do because she has established an identity that is quite distinct, but I’d still say that is the office with the most opportunity.
April 29th, 2009 at
TA says: “But, with Specter’s defection, if anything, the national GOP will renew its attempts to open up the big tent and embrace moderates to refute the notion that Specter’s defection had anything to do with policy schisms within the party.”
….I guess that explains why all the leading national GOP figures are essentially saying good riddance what with their spin explaining how losing a Senator to defection is somehow good for their party…
Must also explain why the head of the RNC is using Specter’s defection as the basis for today’s fundraising asks.
I don’t think TA knows his party as well as he thinks he does. Or maybe the Lake County GOP really is that far from the mainstream of the rest of the GOP….
April 29th, 2009 at
PS — what “short term”?
I read an opinion piece by Linc Chafee today recalling how as a boy he witnessed Rockefeller practically getting booed out of the conventional hall during Goldwater’s nomination… and while many conservatives still see Reagan’s two terms as the natural result of Goldwater’s campaign it’s clear that 40 years after Goldwater mainstream America isn’t as excited by “the party’s principles” anymore. W put a pretty solid book end on that notion, for those who have their eyes open.