Roskam’s Interested
Via Progress Illinois.
The Politico reports:
In Illinois, all eyes are on GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who is considering running for the Senate seat in a special election. He would give Republicans a battle-tested candidate with no ties to the tainted Chicago and Springfield machines. He might otherwise have been unlikely to run statewide, since as a moderate Republican he could be vulnerable in a primary where conservative voters would hold sway.
Kirk isn’t the only credible Illinois Republican mulling a Senate bid. A source close to Rep. Peter J. Roskam said the second-term congressman is also “very interested” in running for the Senate seat and wouldn’t automatically defer to Kirk. Roskam has a more conservative voting record than Kirk and has won election to a suburban Chicago seat during two rough election cycles for the GOP.
My view is that in a one-on-one Senate primary, Roskam takes it and loses the general to just about anyone not named Blagojevich. Clearly the party will try and clear the field for someone, but it’s important to remember that doesn’t mean Kirk. Roskam has lots of movement conservative support and even if they do try to clear him from the field, he’s not shy about taking on other Republicans having challenged Biggert years ago.
December 11th, 2008 at
Roskam would clean up in the primary over Kirk. The wonderful GOP structure in this state continually clings to far-right candidates, and moderate shot-callers like Tom Cross are becoming few and far between. Did you see the Illinois GOP try to eat their own when Radogno became Minority Leader? Almost all of Illinois Review’s bloggers hate Kirk (and call him ridiculous names like a RINO) and the big PACs would throw their monies towards anyone running against him. It would be a glorious showing of the worst Illinois has to offer.
December 11th, 2008 at
No moderate Republican could win the general election. In 2006, Topinka was moderate. She won her primary, but, in the general election, she got 38%. A republican politician, I know, said that Dr. Sauerberg is so liberal, he should have run as a Democrat. Sauerberg won his primary, but, in the general election, he got 33%.
December 11th, 2008 at
I think you are not giving enough credit to the Blago baggage that the Dem will be carrying.
December 11th, 2008 at
One … where was the Blago baggage on Obama in Illinois? How about on local candidates who took long-time GOP seats like State Rep-elect Mark Walker?
“Democrat” doesn’t equal “Blagojevich” any more than “Republican” equals “George Ryan”…
There isn’t enough time to build up a meme like that. The only Dems who’d have a problem are Blago allies and the groveling Jesse Jackson, Jr. I think the GOP can try to paint with a broad brush, but they won’t have the resources to pull off their own “What was she thinking?!” campaign. (And heck, Illinois has turned so blue we actually re-elected Blagojevich.)
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Con Veteran … I notice no conservative Republican has won state-wide either. Peter Fitzgerald was the last one but by the time he retired after one term in the Senate not even Bush liked the guy.
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A special election would be the perfect scenario for an incumbent US Rep. They could lose a general special election and would still be mid-term. I think we’ll see several more leges throw their hats in the ring.
…That said, I’m leaning more toward impeaching Blago and letting Quinn appoint someone. Saves local governments tens of millions of dollars and gets rid of Blago at the same time.
The state legislature can try stripping Blago’s power of appointment but he has too many options to foil that plan for several months since we’re at the end of the 95th General Assembly. If he were to pull any shenanigans it would effectively eliminate the February muni primaries as an option for a special election primary date (plus many, many municipal areas don’t have a Feb primary anyway since most local governments are run by non-partisan boards).
That leaves the April municipal elections as an option for a special election primary… but when to have a special general election?
Or should the special election just be an open election in the first place? That’d get real interesting.
If the lege is actually worried about it, impeach Blago, let Quinn appoint but also pass a veto-proof bill demanding legislative approval of a designate.
December 11th, 2008 at
PS (as if my earlier post wasn’t long enough) … Politico displays typical fly-over country syndrome.
Conservative voters tend not to hold sway in Illinois’ primaries. Moderates do.
A Kirk/Roskam primary would be interesting, and I think Kirk would take it by a mile. But, I’d venture to guess there’d be 3-4 candidates on the GOP side and at least that many on the Dem side.
I’ve been surprised to see very little mention of anyone from central or southern Illinois on either side of the aisle for the open seat (both before and after the governor’s arrest).
December 12th, 2008 at
I disagree with Rob on this one, I don’t think moderate rule primaries in Republican races. Especially statewide.
That said, while I respect Oneman’s views, the biggest mistake Republicans have made over the years is blaming their problems on George Ryan. George Ryan has barely cost them a vote over the years. What has cost them votes is becoming more conservative on social issues over time. What made it worse was blaming George Ryan or moderates for the problems.
The median voter theorem is alive and well. The Republican problem in Illinois is that national politics has become less about economics and more about social issues and Illinois is a moderate to liberal on social issues. You can win with Mark Kirks, you cannot with Peter Roskams. I’m don’t believe Kirk is a slam dunk, but I do believe he’s competitive. By the time Roskam is taken apart by women on equality issues, labor on working issues, and environmentalists on environmental issues, he loses the swing voters in the burbs and that loses the state. That assumes Dems don’t nominate someone who can be tied to closely to Blagojevich, but most of those folks are now out of the running. Jan being the case I think that is nominatable, but still somewhat vulnerable.
December 12th, 2008 at
Arch, let me clarify.
I think conservatives fracture themselves and allow the significant plurality of moderate Republicans to continue to essentially rule the roost.