Congressional Election Predictions
Seals beats Kirk. Early voting seals a 5 point win which is far higher than anyone would have predicted a month ago.
Halvorson wins handily meaning half of my hometown is represented for the first time in my life (and a lot longer I believe) by a Democrat.
Bean & Foster win.
Manzullo suffers a closer race than expected with high Rockford turnout, but still comes away with a decent win
Roskam wins in a squeaker.
Schock wins and is a pain in my ass for years. Either spends a long time being a self-righteous Adam Putnam clone in mid GOP leadership or is stupid and runs for statewide office where he’s beaten badly. Good shot at being head of the GOP class (small class, but still). Roskam and him fight for being the Illinois Movement conservative in DC and hate each other.
Harper catches a wave that tosses him just barely over the finish line first. Roskam’s district is more vulnerable, but if there is a district ripe for a surprise, it’s IL-13.
Illinois Congressional delegation after Tuesday 14-5 Democratic. In 2002 10-9 Republican.
November 3rd, 2008 at
I think Harper’s negative stuff ends up turning too many people off, same thing with Seals. Talk to a bunch of folks who see the TV ads and wonder what the heck Seals stands for since it is all anti-Kirk.
November 3rd, 2008 at
In Harper’s case, I’m not so much crediting his campaign with a potential win as I am with Biggert. Roskam and Kirk have fought hard and organized–their vulnerability come from just being in less friendly districts. Biggert may win simply on incumbency and the such, but she doesn’t seem to have prepared herself for this kind of environment. Kirk is just in a district I don’t think he can win in a cycle like this.
November 3rd, 2008 at
One,
Are you talking to Republicans in the 10th? Because, honestly, most of the people I’m meeting while canvassing know at least some of the basics on Seals and Kirk.
They probably read newspapers, and talk to folks who go door to door like me….
November 3rd, 2008 at
Mostly folks who watch the TV and sorry Seals comes accross like a Jerk on TV (same problem Jim had) it’s all Kirk is this, Kirk is that…
November 3rd, 2008 at
I’m sure the district will be happy to finally have representation for the first time in years, since the current representative is actually representing Guatemala.
November 3rd, 2008 at
Kirk is running away from his party and looks like a calculating bad friend, the Linda Tripp of Illinois. Seals is running strong in all parts of the district, even west.