dbt–there are two things with Tammy. First, she has done a great job in Veterans Affairs. She is really popular there. Also, part of the problem was in 2006 she was still recovering and it seriously limited her campaigning. I think we’d see a far better campaigner this time.

My view is I like Tammy, but the reasons I think she has a shot have few things to do with what I think and what Blagojevich has to work with.

No one named Obama will appear with the man when the appiontment happens. And regardless of who the choice is Obama’s official statement will give general praise to that person and only mention Blagojevich, if at all, with a phrase along the lines of “Gov. Blagojevich appointed…”

Now, if following Obama’s pick has the real value of thawing the feelings of some voting bloc for Rod- that matters. That’s real. Draping himself in Obama-love is delusion.

http://www.bleedingheartland.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1449

Obama isn’t going to campaign for Blagojevich, but Blagojevich would be wise not to give Obama a reason to campaign against him.

How many donors does Obama have? Email addresses? How many are in Illinois?

I think Obama is going to care who Blagojevich replaces. And while Blagojevich has decision-making processes that are hard to fathom, I think he’ll attach some weight to Obama’s preference. Would it be good PR for Blagojevich to appear with Michelle Obama when he announces the appointment? Would it help Blagojevich to have Obama praise the appointment?

Nobody on the list of candidates delivers as much to Blagojevich as Obama can deliver. So, the question isn’t who will Blagojevich pick on his own, but who will Blagojevich pick in consultation with Barack Obama (and David Axelrod)?

If Obama doesn’t take Duckworth, I think she’s a solid choice.

If appointing Obama’s pick will bring votes and give G-Rod a chance at wrapping himself in Obama love (in Rod’s fantasies anyway) then he’ll do it. Seems to me Rod will do what he thinks will benefit him most.

I like Raoul. Seems a long shot.

And I almost spit a mouthful of coffee all over my computer when I read the “Angie Dickinson” line. Fucking classic. And spot on. Some hump on politico commented something to the effect of, “I am from Illinois and I think I know a lot about Illinois politics, and it will likely be Jesse Jr.”

Yeah. You’re a genius.

Am I correct in recalling the line was originally an Uncle Junior line?

While the choice is nominally Hot Rod’s to make, how does anyone think that Barack Obama will not de facto select who replaces him?

Assuming that he is in hardcore survival mode- he’ll only care about how the appointee brings him voters. That is what makes it impossible to predict.

Your point about divisions in African-American and Latino voting blocks- does being a Senator lead to a setting aside of those splits? If it does- then I can see him making making a play to become the non-white candidate in an all white race for Governor.

For Duckworth- her edge is that everyone seems to like her except for a handful of 6th CD activists frustrated over the Cegelis thing.

With that in mind, Duckworth seems the safest bet.

I think Duckworth is a long shot in a normal year… but this year certainly isn’t normal.