IL-10 52-44 Seals
Wow. We haven’t seen the internals and so all caveats apply, but this race certainly looks to be close and definitely winnable Talking Points Memo reports on the poll done for Roll Call.
What’s interesting here is the first non-partisan poll of late is the only one showing Seals with a lead. I’m not sure what to make of that. We are dealing with difficult likely voter models and such, but certainly this is a shot in the arm for the Seals campaign.
One possible interpretation is that the Kos Research 2000 Poll shows Kirk at 44 points as does this poll. However, Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided. What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.
That leaves the race to be one of who can define Dan Seals the most. If that is indeed the case, I’ll take Seals chances. Other than Kirk’s poll, Kirk is consistently below 50 percent which is not a good sign for an incumbent.
October 7th, 2008 at
Based on my canvassing, undecideds ultimately voting Democratic makes sense. In Glenview, I had several people tell me they had made up their mind for Daniel Biss in his St. Rep. race against Republican Beth Coulson (some even had Biss yard signs) but that they were still undecided in the Congressional race.
I have a hard time seeing how someone who understands Biss is an improvement over the relatively moderate Coulson (which he is, of course) would not ultimately decide that Seals is a better choice than the truly loathsome Kirk (votes with Bush 90% of the time, voted against expanding SCHIP, against extending unemployment benefits, against the Lily Ledbetter Equal Pay Act, against forclosure relief for struggling families (even Bush signed that one), etc.).
October 9th, 2008 at
I am finding the undecideds tipping towards Seals. That there should be any undecideds at this point is something to contemplate, but I think that lifelong republicans just have a hard time making the verbal commitment to switch – but once the financial crisis hit, people look at different variables, and the blame falls squarely on the GOP. Jim in Chicago and I are both canvassing in republican territory, so I’d say this bodes well for Seals when you factor in increased voter registration, probable turnout and the abysmal failure of the GOP brand .
Kirk’s disparagement of any Jewish support for Dan also damages Kirk more than Seals – most recently he tried to discredit Reps. Howard Berman and Debbie Wasserman Schultz when they came in to Chicago to fundraise and endorse Dan. Add to that, Kirk’s negative smear ads, his endorsement of Palin, (comparing her to States Attorney, Fitzgerald!!), and he looks like an imitation of the McCain campaign.
October 14th, 2008 at
A large portion of the undecided vote in the 10th has already decided to go for Obama. It is a simple nudge off the fence to remind them that a vote for Kirk is a vote for someone who will dedicate himself over the next two years to standing in the way of Obama progress at least 80% of the time. Watch the lightbulb go on when you say this. This is especially true for Jewish voters who only need to be shown that there is no discernable difference between Kirk and Seals when it comes to support from Israel.