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IL-10 Map

2004
Kerry 53 %
Bush 47 %

2000
Gore 51 %
Bush 47 %

Cook Partisan Index +4 D

Republican: Incumbent Mark Kirk was first elected in 2000 and had no serious competition in 2004. He’s positioned himself as a moderate Republican who is pro-choice and environmentally friendly.  On the first position, he’s relatively accurate, but his League of Conservation Voters scores are mediocre with some variance depending upon the year. He has voted to a significant degree with Republican leadership on several issues lately including against a bill to give teeth to gender discrimination in wages and has consistently voted with the administration on the war.  He is a strong campaigner and very good at constituent service. He’s personally considered very likeable and pretty calm.  In addition, he is a very strong supporter of Israel reflecting his district well on that issue.

Democrats:  Dan Seals ran last time and held Kirk to 53%, his lowest total since his first win in 2000.  Seals made it a race largely on his own with limited DCCC support even though he got a lot of national attention and really was liked in DCCC.  The number of seats in play made his District one they didn’t have much money to support him.  Seals has strong local support and has made his support of Israel a key point of his campaign.

Jay Footlik was recruited in 2006, but took a pass on the race that year.  He entered the race this year and after some initial statements that confused his position on the war has come out strongly against the Iraq War and is running a smart campaign. His background as a Homeland Security consultant who has worked in Israel is an asset in the District as well. He has surprised everyone with very strong fundraising and caught Seals a bit flat-footed on that front and the October reports will be important benchmarks for both campaigns.

Seals has the loyalty of many folks who supported him last time and that probably gives him an edge assuming both have good quarters.

Kirk has tried to break from the President on the war with a bizarre plan he has put together with Dan Lipinski that would force the reduction of troops that has to be done anyway since the armed forces are overextended and attempted to call it a compromise.  The compromise is essentially a complete capitulation to the Bush administration.  Given that polling after the Petraeus testimony indicates the public was not buying the administration’s line, it’s hard to tell how the plan Kirk is endorsing helps him.

Given the unpopularity of the war and limited RNCC support that Kirk can expect and the Democratic nominee is likely to get significant DCCC support, this race leans Democratic.  Kirk is a tough campaigner, but he has virtually everything going against him this cycle.