ArchPundit

From National Journal’s Congress Daily

With President Bush taking 55 percent of the vote in the district in 2004, it’s not the most vulnerable Republican seat in the state –the district of GOP Rep. Mark Kirk owns that distinction. It’s not eventhe one with the fairest playing field, which falls to the district of GOP Rep. Jerry Weller. But the goings-on in Hastert’s 14th District will tell us how seriously we should take Democratic pickoff attempts in more-Republican leaning districts, like that of GOP Rep. Don Manzullo or the open contest for LaHood’s seat.

For Democrats, winning a seat like Hastert’s isn’t a pie-in-the-sky proposition. First, the district represents suburban Chicago, and any northern suburban seat — especially an open one — should warrant attention.

But second, according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index, the district has the same presidential performance as that of Reps. Dan Boren, D-Okla., Charlie Melancon, D-La., and Dennis Moore, D-Kan. All three sit in pretty rocky territory, but have managed to hold on for a couple of election cycles. So it’s possible for Democrats totake Hastert’s seat, but it will be an uphill climb.

Three Democrats are vying for the nomination: 2006 nominee John Laesch, attorney Jotham Stein and scientist and businessman Bill Foster. Laesch spent nearly $300,000 in 2006 in an effort to defeat Hastert, but took only 40 percent of the vote. For this contest, Stein has raised $73,000 and Laesch only $13,000.

So far, Foster has been fundraising and acting like a frontrunner. He has raised more than $130,000 and some Democrats believe Foster’s background as a scientist will help in an environment that is looking for change.

Until 2006, Foster worked as a scientist for Fermilab, a Batavia company that employs nearly 2,500 people. The company is well-known throughout the district, and campaign manager Tom Bowen said it gives Foster a base of support he normally would lack since he hasn’t been on the ballot before.  Foster plans to spend $1 million in the primary, and he appears to hold a strong position heading into that contest.

The reason panic is setting in with activists and party regulars in Districts like these is that the scope of the problems on messaging are starting to hit home.  The war and the President are only supported by about 30 percent of the public so even in a +5 Republican District such as this (IL-8 is more Republican), the sentiment against the war is strong and the Republican primaries are virtually guaranteeing a candidate who supports Bush’s policies or thinks they are too liberal.

That’s why many Republicans are starting to refer to 1974, the post-Watergate election that resulted in huge losses for Republicans.

On the Republican side, the early favorite was state Sen. Chris
Lauzen, but his status as frontrunner has seemingly evaporated, and
instead the momentum has shifted to dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, who ran
for the Senate in 2002 and 2004 and governor in 2006.
Hastert’s team apparently soured on Lauzen after seeing the results
of a poll the state senator conducted to test the waters in a potential
open seat bid.

Also working for Oberweis is a personal fortune and a promise to
spend $2.5 million in the primary. Observers say this figure might
overwhelm Lauzen, who doesn’t have a history of raising that kind of
cash.

Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns is also in the GOP race, but has made few
moves to compete with Oberweis and Lauzen. Oberweis has a high name
identification from his dairy business and his three previous runs for
office. In the 2002 and 2004 Senate primaries, he took second place. In
2006, he loaned his gubernatorial primary campaign nearly $2.5 million,
but came in second place again.

A potential Foster-Oberweis general election race would pit two
millionaires against each other in a contest of political neophytes. It
could get ugly.

Republicans dismiss Democratic chances in the district as a pipe
dream, and say that if Democrats really do have a good chance at the
seat, why did their preferred challenger, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia,
opt out of the race? They argue it was a sign that top-tier Democrats
don’t want any part of a losing race.

But Democrats see an opening, and if there is a rough primary
battle on the Republican side, the victor will emerge bloodied. And in a
suburban district, anything could happen, particularly in a year when
the popular Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., might be on the Democratic ticket
in 2008.

A possible Hastert resignation, though, could throw a wrench in
everyone’s plans. Both parties will probably be forced into spending
money on a race everyone will watch for 2008 implications. A special
election also would be even more expensive.
Just in 2006, Republicans spent nearly $4.5 million in a special
election to prop up a Republican in California’s 50th District, a
normally reliable GOP seat. That’s just the kind of race neither party
wants to pay for, including a cash-strapped National Republican
Congressional Committee.

Illinois’ 14th District presents a very interesting scenario for
Democrats. It’s not a bellwether district in the traditional sense, but
it is a measuring stick for slightly stronger GOP districts in the
state. If this seat falls to Democrats, Reps. Tim Johnson and Manzullo
better watch out. And if that happens, it’ll be an ugly year for
Republicans.

But if Republicans hold on, Democratic efforts here might just be
what Republicans believe the Democratic challenge to be: a “smoke and
mirrors” ploy so Republicans are forced to spend money here instead of
more deserving races. By Tim Sahd