ArchPundit

The Blagojevich folks think they can get a few of the proposals around JCAR–I don’t buy that, but that’s for the courts to decide. However, on a couple issues everyone is in agreement that JCAR must sign off on the rule changes. For Blagojevich to get the rules changes he needs 5 votes in his favor–meaning out of six Democrats, 2 defecting Democrats can stop the rules. Unless there is a Republican vote to pick up, and that seems highly unlikely.
I’ll go out on a limb and say Fritchey is going to say no–and good for him.

House Republicans

Hassert Romeoville–strong Cross ally
Leitch–Peoria

Mulligan–Des Plaines

The only way Hassert switches is if Cross got behind some sort of deal, but that deal would have been made previously.  Not now.  Mulligan is slightly vulnerable as she is in the Northwest suburbs and in theory it could be an issue against her assuming she’s challenged by a Democrat this cycle.  The problem–running with Blagojevich in the Northwest suburbs would be an act of political suicide for any challenger. The one advantage good Democratic Lege candidates have is that they can run against the Governor since he’s essentially his own brand separate from the Democrats.

Senate Republicans
Burzynski–Sycamore

Hultgren–Wheaton

Rutherford–Pontiac

Uhhh…no.  Rutherford will vote against the rules with a smile. He might even break into talking about himself in the third person again as he did when Blagojevich campaigned against him on an early budget vote in Pontiac.  The others would have no rational electoral reason to defect from Watson.

Senate Democrats

Crotty–Oak Forest

Clayborne–East Saint Louis

Silverstein–Chicago

I’d imagine Crotty and Silverstein go with Emil on this.  Clayborne may pull out the institutionalist card and vote against the rules if he’s offended by the method.

House Democrats

Fritchey–Chicago  Uh…no.
Holbrook–Belleville
Miller–Dolton

Miller expresses reservations in the Post-Dispatch.  He doesn’t have any real threats so backing Madigan with a no would not be a problem for him.

Holbrook made his play blocking a budget bill at the end of May with other downstate Members to argue for electric rate relief first.  The only other thing I know about him is he has a decent environmental record.  Unless he is especially close with Jay Hoffman I wouldn’t see him backing the new rules.

Meaning the Governor has to sweep the Democratic Senators and take two House members or Mulligan.  The Governor will have no electoral power over those he’s trying to persuade.  Fritchey and him already don’t get along.  Clayborne, Miller, and Holbrook are all relatively safe seats.  Mulligan is a House Republican and only Madigan has anything to do with any decision to target her or not.

I don’t see how he gets five votes in his favor.  Six are guaranteed against him.  Of the other six, only two have to be against the rules and one is already signaling that is his attention and another is a Republican.