ArchPundit

Wilmette, IL– The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced yesterday that it will be targeting Congressman Mark Kirk with a series of ads focusing on his continued support for the President and his failed Iraq war policies. Mr. Kirk’s office attacked Dan Seals yesterday in response to the activity by the DCCC.

 

Mark Walker, a member of the Northwest Suburban Veterans Advisory Council, stated that, “It is too bad the needs of veterans have become political footballs, and personal attacks on candidates have already begun.”

 

He continued, ”We all should be working together to meet these needs. Dan Seals has shown a direct and personal interest in Veterans’ issues, and has asked for input from local veterans, specifically on benefits for veterans and their families, healthcare, the VA claims process, and PTSD challenges.  He has shown a sophisticated understanding of funding and budgeting shortfalls for veterans at the national level.”

 

Meanwhile, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) added Congressman Kirk to a list of their most vulnerable incumbents.   By adding Mr. Kirk to the ROMP (Regain Our Majority Program), it’s an acknowledgement of his vulnerability and the competitive nature of the race taking shape for 2008.

 

View the press release from the DCCC at: http://www.dccc.org/news/headlines/Dems_prepare_attack_ad_GOP_targets06282007/

 

View the DCCC video at youtube.com: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZl1y6K5FkM&mode=user&search

 

View the press release from NRCC: http://www.nrcc.org/news/view_article.asp?id=274

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Happy 4th of July

I’m just numb at this point.  Not everyone is

Fritchey reports in from London:

Having spent the last six days in London, I figure that it’s time to share my thoughts on a few random different topics, the first of which being to preemptively answer why I didn’t postpone my trip in order to remain in Springfield, as well as my thoughts on the upcoming special sessions (which experience has shown me are never that special).

Had I thought that anything substantive was going to occur requiring me to postpone my trip, I would have done so. But the last couple of months of (in)activity in Springfield left me relatively confident that nothing of consequence was on the verge of happening. For better or worse, it appears I was right.

And no the title isn’t a shot at Fritchey.  He has some good analysis below.

===This is absurd. I will eat my computer if the Republicans lose 30 seats in the House and the safe money says they retain the Senate. John Kerry guaranteed at least 4 points across the board when he demeaned our fine men and women in uniform. But he’s been doing that for 35 years now.

==Look for Republicans to make huge advances in the next week… polls are already showing a Republican surge as the economy races further ahead (Oil at record lows and the Dow blowing past 12,000). The Dems were never as far ahead as the polls indicated as the samples were skewed over and above the normal 5-6 pct. Dem bias.

Those are from a resident troll last summer and fall who disappeared after November 4th.  We hope that it wasn’t from heavy metal poisoning while ingesting his computer.

Campaigns with lots of small donors brag about it to cover up disappointing results.

 Obama’s campaign isn’t usual.

Plouffe brings up the the basic points about polling this far out.  He forgot one example though from 2004.

September 2003–5 1/2 months from election day
Hynes 10
Hull 9
Obama 8
Chico 7
Pappas not included

January 2004 2 months out
Hynes 14
Obama 14
Pappas 14
Hull 10

Survey USA January
Hynes 20
Obama 19
Hull 19
Pappas 18

Survey USA February
Hull 29
Hynes 19
Obama 19
Pappas 14

I was wrong on two counts during that race. First, I thought it would be a turnout race on election day. It wasn’t.  Obama blew the field away.  Second, I argued that Hull would be in a close race with Hynes and Obama at the end.  With the shape of this primary season, money is going to be vital for Florida and then February 5th–more than in any other year. The ability to ramp up fundraising for those without a lot of money early on is going to be a real problem for those contests.  Obama and Clinton clearly will have the resources, but not only will Edwards or any other candidate have to do well, they’ll have to run the table to get the free media they will need to compete while getting their fundraising in gear.

Few are paying attention right now. As we get into the fall and October and November, Obama will need to be increasing his numbers then, but for now, the fight is over organization and dollars–something he has put together before.

Jim Capozzola passed away tonight. He wrote Rittenhouse Review and back when blogging was just beginning he wrote one of the most important pieces on the DC Press corps.  You probably haven’t read it, but if you read Atrios, Markos, Yglesias, etc., on the DC press, Jim is the guy that crystallized in many of our minds what is deeply wrong with that city.  Jim was one of the first people to link to me outside of the small bunch of Illinois blogs as I recall.  He linked to me back before December of 2002 and was a major source of traffic for me in 2003

We only traded a few e-mails over the years, but he was always funny.  His health had been declining and I forgot to spin by as often in the last year, but he was a fantastic and funny writer who I will miss.

A phrase that should never come out of anyone’s mouth who supports this move

When is that accountability moment coming?

Fuck me? Fuck me? No, FUCK YOU!

Madigan responds. Illinois Issues has the letter.

Charles’ tracking put’s the Bush Approval Trend at 28.9 percent.  A new low.

Excellent analysis

The question remains one of how long the current slide can continue. Historically, presidential approval has rarely fallen into the 20s. While some polls are still giving readings in the 30s, the trend remains sharply downward. However, we are now approaching historic lows. An approval trend of about 29% implies we should see a range of polls between 24% and 34% if the trend stabilizes at its current level. Further decline would predict at least some individual polls that threaten to reach the all time low of President Truman at 22%. Given President Bush’s remaining substantial support among Republicans (CBS puts Republican approval in the current poll at 66%, but with Independent support slipping to 18%.) , a loss of that loyal support would seem necessary for a fall to such historic low levels. (Truman had much less support from Democrats than Bush has enjoyed from Republicans.)

Such a bottoming out would seem to require an open breach with Congressional Republicans, as a signal to rank and file that support of the President is no longer expected. With the immigration bill off the table, pressure for a break on that score is actually less now than last week. Iraq looms as the greater challenge, though that requires a shift of position from Congressional Republicans who have staunchly supported the war and criticized Democrats for supporting withdrawal. The double trick will be for Republican Congressional leaders to offer a face saving rationale for a change in Iraq policy while at the same time criticizing their party’s president for a failed policy. We’ve seen some efforts along this line last week. But will the floodgates open or can the President retain the support of his party on the most important issue of his presidency? If he loses that support, we will probably have to rescale the y-axis of our plots.

Bush Republican support is still at 66 percent which I find amazing given all that his administration has gone through.

The Governor, after promising legislative leaders not to mess with the July 4th Holiday, calls a special session on the 5th.

Okay, those in the Lege who weren’t completely blaming him before, are now. I can understand a certain level of frustration in the Governor’s office given he introduced a fairly dramatic plan that did a lot of things he had been accused of ignoring and then getting pounded by everyone. I think he was gaining some momentum before I ended up taking an unplanned blog break, but that was all lost and this sort of thing is going to prolong the problem, not solve it.

Dan has a decent take on the how the caucuses operate and I think it’s important to note how he describes Madigan and the other caucus heads. They do have a lot of power, but they also have it partially because they listen to their members and their members’ concerns. They are far from innocent in creating this fiasco–well, actually the Republicans are since they didn’t have any say until overtime.

On substance, The Governor has some decent points. However, when he screws with people like this, he loses any power to leverage those decent points.

He loses all respectability with attacks like this one on Fritchey, Harris, and Feigenholtz.

The most telling story is the one Fritchey talks about where the Man-Child refuses to talk without the leadership

Now, who does that remind you of? Gee, an executive leader who refuses to talk with those he needs to resolve something with unless all of his conditions are met first.