ArchPundit

Daley talks a little trash about the unions success on Tuesday:

“Where’s the message? Hello? I mean — come on. What message? I’ve been more [pro-] labor than they have. Every crane down here is labor,” said Daley, whose big-box veto cost him support from all but one major union.

As I’ve said before, the point of the union effort and especially SEIU wasn’t to have a big one-shot victory, though the results were pretty damn good for them.  It was to create a political operation that functioned in the City and in a particular time when the Machine is dying.  It’s certainly true that the Machine has been dying for years, but the Obama win and Sorich case have accelerated that process and left an opening for a new player.  That player is organized labor and SEIU in particular.

Before anyone jumps on me over the Big Box ordinance being bad and such, this isn’t an endorsement of that bill as I tend to think it would be best handled at the state level.  However, it spurred SEIU and the Chicago Federation of Labor into a serious effort to elect union friendly aldermen and  build that organization up.  This was the first real test and while they didn’t clear the table, the unions were 2-3-6 in the 11 races they targeted including 3, 7, 12, 15, 16, 21, 25, 37, 42, 43, and 50 winning outright in 7 and 42.  Losing outright in 12, 25, and 37.  Going to a run-off in 3, 15, 16, 21, 43, and 50.

Of those races they targeted, four SEIU made no endorsement:  25, 37 43, and 50.  In two of those the incumbent won outright and in two the runoffs only happened barely with both incumbents taking just under 50 percent of the vote.  It’s somewhat likely that candidate selection was a problem in these cases, but also that the incumbents will win in April.

That said, it looks like two of the runoffs are likely to go to the union backed challengers in  15 (actually open seat) and 16.  In the final two runoffs, I’d probably call the outcome a tossup with 3 and 21.  If the unions can deliver the votes with the superior organization in  what is likely to be very low turnout, those two are potential pickups as well.

Of the incumbents SEIU endorsed (they made endorsements in 37 of 50 wards and four of the non-endorsements are above) only three are headed to a run-off and none lost.  24, 35, and 50 are all incumbents endorsed by SEIU and in runoffs, but only Chandler in 24 appears to be in any real trouble having garnered only 36 percent of the vote to 20 percent for his nearest challenger. In 50 (Moore) and 35 (Colon) the incumbents received 49 and 46 percent of the vote respectively.  Moore’s is the most notable race since he had business interests pumping money into the race attacking him.

SEIU and CFL had a good election cycle given what I believe their objectives are in terms of long term movement building.  Daley might not care much because he probably thinks this is his last term.  Those who follow Daley will have to contend with the operation put together for this years’ race.

Statewide this is also a big win for Democrats.  Getting out the vote is tough in the City often times, but with the machine dying off, it was getting harder. This sort of operation will generally benefit Democrats and continue to provide large majorities coming out of Chicago for those Democratic candidates.