I Understand Why Obama Is Calling for Phased Withdrawal
But in practice it’s pointless. Everything about strategy he is saying is correct and he certainly had better judgment about this war at the beginning than I did, but Atrios makes a point on what pushing for a gradual withdrawal does:
The basic content of what Obama is saying, divorced from the larger debate, is fine, but as to how it plays in the current debate it’s not fine. It allows us to wait around one more Friedman… and then something will happen. Except it won’t happen. Troops will not start coming home 4-6 months from now. And, most likely, 4-6 months from now Obama won’t be saying “bring them home now,” though I’ve put him on my little calendar and will make sure to check back then and let you know.
The thing is that “bring them home now” doesn’t really mean now. It doesn’t mean that thousands of troops start boarding transport planes for the trip home. It just means that the focus shifts from staying to leaving, and the latter slowly begins to happen. Every time someone punts that action for yet another Friedman, it helps to ensure that the end of the war will always be a Friedman away.
The reality is that the President is trying to run out the clock and he’s going to use Gates, The Baker group, and Democrats playing by the civil rules of discussion to draw out our involvement in Iraq.
Obama is stuck in the final trap that Bush has created where calling for an immediate withdrawal is seen as irresponsible, but he keeps everyone talking about changing things in 6 months. Six months later, repeat.
If Obama were President, the plan would be fine. If Chuck Hagel were President, it would be fine. If so and so were President it would be fine. They aren’t. George Bush is and he’s convinced that he’s Hal Jordan and he can will a win–all he needs is time. Time has to not be an option for him anymore and why I respect the thought the Senator has put into this, it only plays into the Administration getting another six months to talk about some new thing that’s not new.
One year ago Obama said the same thing, but with a little less urgency. That we would be here right now and seeing Iraq deteriorating is exactly what I expected-it’s one of the reasons I predicted a Democratic wave in the summer of 2005–even before Katrina. The way this administration works, we’ll have Obama saying with even more urgency in 2007 that we need to start a draw down of troops.
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November 21st, 2006 at
I think the ultimate problem lies in the fact that the Dems really cannot do anything. Everyone is saying for them to tell Bush what to do. They do not take over till Jan.
The other problem is that they have given Bush plans in the past, alibet before they took over, and he rejected them.
And, unless Bush is willing to cooperate, the congress cannot do much.
Bush will play silly games while everyone is expecting the dems to force Bush and nothing will get done.
Even if Baker has a decent plan, Bush will say all the nice things and proceed to do what he wants and take no action.
He said he would rebuild New Orleans and look at it now. He said he’d do alot of things and then, leaves it.
He will do the same regardless of whatever plan comes down.
Baker, Obama, ect. could have perfect plans and it won’t get done. period.
November 21st, 2006 at
Unless the Dems grow a spine and cut funding or realize the Constitution gives them, not the president, war-declaration powers….
November 22nd, 2006 at
OK … how many other people got the “Hal Jordan” reference?
November 22nd, 2006 at
I actually had a pilot reference in there too at one point.
November 23rd, 2006 at
The Republican plan is to run out the clock in hopes that soonerr or later folks like you will pressure the Democrats innto forcing a withdrawal by cutting off the fundinng. That’s their get-out-of-responisbility free card. The entire rightwing noise machine will then chant in unison “We could have won but the Democrats made us lose”. Theyy’ll keep it up for yeears and eventually it will become the coventional wisdom. Twenty years from now the Republicans will be the party of strength and Dems running for office will be Swiftboated by Iraq war vets.
Don’t get fooled again. Let the clock run out. They have to pull out by 08. Make it be their decision so that their chickhens will shit on their heads.