The Prediction Post
Going race-by-race in the House gets me more switches than going with an overall model, but here are my predictions for US House, US Senate, and Governors. I also add in my Illinois predictions.
For the House, IA-2, IL-10, and CO-5 are the longer shots, but almost all the other are what happens with a 2-1 split on undecideds to the challenger. If I had to do an estimate based on a generic number I’d probably put the pick-up between 30-35 so going race by race I end up with more. The wave seems to be uneven so I’m betting Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New York, Colorado, and Ohio will have the races playing off of each other. We then have some spectacularly badly run races (Hayworth) and some scandals such as in California. Otherwise, just a little nudge in places where incumbents haven’t been tending to the District well and they’ll get blindsided.
The thing about waves is that they don’t take out the most entrenched, they take out those who aren’t paying attention and are in swing or leaning seats. Nearly all of the above except the Nebraska seats fit those categories. There’s something in the water in Nebraska this year.
In the Senate, the only long shots are Pedersen and Lamont. Obviously some of these races are not definitive, but with the national winds, the ties should go to the Dems.
For Governor, I think mine are all the conventional wisdom except Alaska and Nevada. Nevada has the scandal going on and somehow Knowles has some weird mojo that’s made him competitive.
Illinois. I still don’t get why Hynes doesn’t have the biggest margin–then again, the guy just had twins and has hardly campaigned and is headed to a 2-1 margin. Rutherford has laid a big egg during this race. He’s barely, if at all, raised his profile which was the entire point. Stu Who? did even worse.
The other three races, well, those are predictions, not wishes.
The Illinois Senate isn’t one I’d bet my life on, but looking at the races that are competitive and the national wave interacting with local dynamics, the Dems should have some pickups.
The House–everyone’ll think I’m crazy, but despite playing almost all defense, the national wave and Congressional races will pick up three races is my guess. I have pretty low confidence in that one.
* Indicates a pickup.
| House District | ArchPundit | Senate | ArchPundit | Governor | ArchPundit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Renzi | AZ | Pedersen* | AK | Knowles* |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell* | CA | Feinstein | AL | Riley |
| AZ-08 | Giffords* | CT | Lamont | AR | Beebe* |
| CA-04 | Brown* |
DE | Carper | AZ | Napolitano |
| CA-11 | McNerney* | FL | Nelson | CA | Schwarzenegger |
| CA-50 | Busby* |
HI | Akaka | CO | Ritter* |
| CO-04 | Paccione* | MA | Kennedy | CT | Rell |
| CO-05 | Fawcett* |
MD | Cardin | FL | Crist |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter* | ME | Snowe | GA | Perdue |
| CT-02 | Courtney* | MI | Stabenow | IA | Culver |
| CT-04 | Farrell* | MN | Klobuchar | ID | Brady* |
| CT-05 | Murphy* | MO | McCaskill* | IL | Blagojevich |
| FL-09 | Bilirakis | MT | Tester* | KS | Sebelius |
| FL-13 | Jennings* | NE | Nelson | MA | Patrick* |
| FL-16 | Mahoney* | NJ | Menendez | MD | O’Malley* |
| FL-22 | Klein* | NM | Bingaman | ME | Baldacci |
| GA-08 | Marshall | NV | Ensign | MI | Granholm |
| GA-12 | Barrow | NY | Clinton | MN | Hatch* |
| ID-01 | Grant* | OH | Brown* | NE | Heineman |
| IL-06 | Duckworth* | PA | Casey* | NH | Lynch |
| IL-08 | Bean | RI | Whitehouse* | NM | Richardson |
| IL-10 | Seals* | TN | Corker | NV | Titus* |
| IL-11 | Weller | TX | Hutchison | NY | Spitzer* |
| IL-17 | Hare | UT | Hatch | OH | Strickland* |
| IN-02 | Donnelly* | VA | Webb* | OK | Henry |
| IN-08 | Ellsworth* | VT | Sanders | OR | Kulongoski |
| IN-09 | Hill* | WA | Cantwell | PA | Rendell |
| IA-01 | Braley* | WI | Kohl | RI | Carcieri |
| IA-02 | Loebsack* | WV | Byrd | SC | Sanford |
| IA-03 | Boswell | WY | Thomas | TN | Bredesen |
| KS-02 | Boyda* |
+7 52-48 | TX | Gov Goodhair | |
| KY-03 | Yarmuth8 | VT | Douglas | ||
| KY-04 | Lucas* | WI | Doyle | ||
| MN-01 | Walz* | WY | Freudenthal | ||
| MN-06 | Wetterling* | +10 32-18 |
|||
| NE-02 | Moul* | ||||
| NE-03 | Kleeb* | ||||
| NV-03 | Porter | ||||
| NH-02 | Hodes* | IL Races | |||
| NM-01 | Madrid* | Madigan | 70-28-2 | ||
| NY-19 | Hall* | White | 68-30-2 | ||
| NY-20 | Gillibrand* | Hynes | 67-31-2 | ||
| NY-24 | Arcuri* | Giannoulis | 50-44-6 | ||
| NY-25 | Maffei* | Blagojevich | 48-40-10-2 | Other Nieuked – Stufflebeam | |
| NY-26 | Davis* | Stroger | 55-45 | ||
| NY-29 | Massa* |
IL SEN |
+3 D | 34-24-1 | |
| NC-11 | Shuler* | IL House |
+3 D | 68-50 | |
| OH-01 | Cranley* | ||||
| OH-02 | Wulsin* | ||||
| OH-12 | Shamansky* | ||||
| OH-15 | Kilroy* | ||||
| OH-18 | Space* | ||||
| PA-06 | Murphy* | ||||
| PA-07 | Sestak* | ||||
| PA-08 | Murphy* | ||||
| PA-10 | Carney* | ||||
| TX-22 | Lampson* | ||||
| TX-23 | No Runoff | ||||
| VA-02 | Kellam* | ||||
| WA-08 | Burner* | ||||
| WI-08 | Kagen* | ||||
| WY-AL | Trauner* | +51 | 254-181 |
November 4th, 2006 at
Anyone who picks Lamont to win that race has a serious credibility problem
November 4th, 2006 at
2 things – First, when I clicked to post a comment, my name somehow defaulted to “Citation” If I hadn’t been paying attention, I may have inadvertently posted as “Citation”.
Second, I only spun through the House races, so its hard to criticize your picks there, but based on the most recent polling in CT, I can’t see how its possible for Lamont to win at this point. It’s hard to concede, but unless something huge changes over the weekend, The Last Honest Man’s going to coast to victory.
Good to see I’m not the only one who thinks Seals’ has got the mojo.
November 4th, 2006 at
> Anyone who picks Lamont to win that race has a serious credibility problem
He acknowledges it as a longshot. Lieberman continues to hold a 10+ point lead in the polls, but the three-way contest could yet throw a wrench into the works.
Arch is taking the ‘dog (and acknowledging him as such), but that alone hardly indicates “a serious credibility problem.”
November 4th, 2006 at
==Anyone who picks Lamont to win that race has a serious credibility problem
Not as much as someone who thinks a piece of literature by Jim Webb is indicative of an endorsement of the behavior in the literature.
November 4th, 2006 at
And Citation, pick an identity and keep with it. Since August you have used at least 5 different ones.
November 4th, 2006 at
If Ill dems win two of the three Bean, Duckworth, and Seals I’d be very happy but I just don’t see them being able to win the 10th.
Kirk is a centrist who does fit well with that district. I hope I’m wrong but I just can’t see Seals winning.
November 4th, 2006 at
I’m totally pooped but I wanted to give my impressions of Day 1 of the Final Four Days for Tammy Duckworth (IL-06). We had huged crowds. Volunteers were waiting on two flights of stairs while campaign workers processed them and sent them on their way as quickly as possbile.
If anyone reading this went to Wisconsin in 2004, it was the same feeling!
I’ve got a few pictures up at:
http://illinoisdemnet.com/node/2989