Comments on: New Constituent Dynamics Polling http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/ Illinois, From Misery Sun, 21 Mar 2010 20:14:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: ArchPundit http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10878 ArchPundit Tue, 31 Oct 2006 15:26:07 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10878 Yes, but the previous CD poll put Dan nearly even with Kirk even when taken at the same time as the partisan polling so that's why I'm somewhat suspect. We've had a fairly long discussion on the outfit over at Capitol Fax. It's also a Democratic leaning district--not really heavily Democratic. That said, the people doing the poll are competent professionals, but this is their first big experience with IVR polls in an election so I'm skeptical they are nailing all of the races. I will say I think Dan is closing in on Kirk, so people should absolutely volunteer for him and help him out--he's a fantastic candidate. Yes, but the previous CD poll put Dan nearly even with Kirk even when taken at the same time as the partisan polling so that’s why I’m somewhat suspect. We’ve had a fairly long discussion on the outfit over at Capitol Fax.

It’s also a Democratic leaning district–not really heavily Democratic. That said, the people doing the poll are competent professionals, but this is their first big experience with IVR polls in an election so I’m skeptical they are nailing all of the races.

I will say I think Dan is closing in on Kirk, so people should absolutely volunteer for him and help him out–he’s a fantastic candidate.

]]> By: jerry 101 http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10877 jerry 101 Tue, 31 Oct 2006 15:22:47 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10877 The (D) and (R) polls are pretty old and pre-date the TV ads, I believe. The recent CD poll is after a lot of TV. The older CD poll may pre-date the TV though. But, I understand the impulse not to trust the polling. Kos said that they are also a new outfit, which I wasn't previously aware of. So, no history, no idea how accurate they are. But the earlier poll is suspicious. That's also a heavy D district, so Seals could be picking up support just be actually proclaiming he's the Democrat in the race. I want Dan to win, but I won't count on it. And the CD website is fun to play with. The (D) and (R) polls are pretty old and pre-date the TV ads, I believe. The recent CD poll is after a lot of TV. The older CD poll may pre-date the TV though.

But, I understand the impulse not to trust the polling. Kos said that they are also a new outfit, which I wasn’t previously aware of. So, no history, no idea how accurate they are. But the earlier poll is suspicious. That’s also a heavy D district, so Seals could be picking up support just be actually proclaiming he’s the Democrat in the race.

I want Dan to win, but I won’t count on it.

And the CD website is fun to play with.

]]> By: ArchPundit http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10876 ArchPundit Mon, 30 Oct 2006 23:04:19 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10876 You can see most of the polling available at Pollster--here is the link for IL-10. Both D and R polls had Dan significantly lower http://www.pollster.com/house.php#IL-10 You can see most of the polling available at Pollster–here is the link for IL-10. Both D and R polls had Dan significantly lower
http://www.pollster.com/house.php#IL-10

]]> By: ArchPundit http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10875 ArchPundit Mon, 30 Oct 2006 23:02:16 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10875 In general, probably, but the other thing is the Perlmutter race and IL-08 they have more close than other pollsters. In general, probably, but the other thing is the Perlmutter race and IL-08 they have more close than other pollsters.

]]> By: Nicholas Beaudrot http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10874 Nicholas Beaudrot Mon, 30 Oct 2006 22:58:09 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10874 My hunch is that Constituent Dynamics polling tilts D. Right now they show Dems picking up 40 seats. But no other polling has put Angie Paccione ahead of Marilyn Musgrave or McNerney ahead of Richard Pombo. It's way out of line with what any of the forecasters are predicting, or what any other polls show. My hunch is that Constituent Dynamics polling tilts D. Right now they show Dems picking up 40 seats. But no other polling has put Angie Paccione ahead of Marilyn Musgrave or McNerney ahead of Richard Pombo. It’s way out of line with what any of the forecasters are predicting, or what any other polls show.

]]> By: jerry 101 http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10873 jerry 101 Mon, 30 Oct 2006 22:26:25 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10873 What other polls are out there? Why are you saying CD is an outlier for Seals/Kirk? I haven't seen any other polls, except for the last CD, which was pretty favorable for Seals. I do know that Kirk is blasting my near-the-loop tv with semi-attack ads (attacking seals for living outside the district, while listing some of Kirk's accomplishments - Seals does live a whole 1.5 blocks outside the district). Plus Seals seems to be getting more coverage in the papers. What else are you hearing that leads you to believe that the CD poll isn't good? What other polls are out there? Why are you saying CD is an outlier for Seals/Kirk? I haven’t seen any other polls, except for the last CD, which was pretty favorable for Seals.

I do know that Kirk is blasting my near-the-loop tv with semi-attack ads (attacking seals for living outside the district, while listing some of Kirk’s accomplishments – Seals does live a whole 1.5 blocks outside the district). Plus Seals seems to be getting more coverage in the papers.

What else are you hearing that leads you to believe that the CD poll isn’t good?

]]> By: Anonymous http://archpundit.com/blog/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-10872 Anonymous Mon, 30 Oct 2006 22:21:52 +0000 http://69.89.31.63/~archpund/2006/10/30/new-constituent-dynamics-polling/#comment-10872 CD had favorable numbers for Seals in the last round, as well. So, what other polls are out there? I've only seen CD polls for the Seals campaign, and heard a little bit about Seals internal polling numbers. I do know that Kirk has been flooding my broadcast channels with split negative/positive ads. The negatives are hitting Seals for being outside of the district. In fact, that seems like Kirk's strongest attack point. Seals does, in fact, live about 1.5 blocks from the district border. So, what else are you hearing regarding Seals? Why is it that you conclude that CD is the outlier, besides the Seals campaign being a longshot? CD had favorable numbers for Seals in the last round, as well. So, what other polls are out there? I’ve only seen CD polls for the Seals campaign, and heard a little bit about Seals internal polling numbers. I do know that Kirk has been flooding my broadcast channels with split negative/positive ads. The negatives are hitting Seals for being outside of the district. In fact, that seems like Kirk’s strongest attack point. Seals does, in fact, live about 1.5 blocks from the district border.

So, what else are you hearing regarding Seals? Why is it that you conclude that CD is the outlier, besides the Seals campaign being a longshot?

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