New Constituent Dynamics Polling
I was a little leery of their first round after looking through the numbers, but several of the races are closer to other polls–not all that uncommon as you get closer to election day and everyone starts to take a firmer stand for whom they’ll vote.
The big number which doesn’t match any other poll
IL-10 with a 2 point lead for Seals. I won’t go out on a limb for this set, but it’s a good sign and it means you should be in one of three places on election day IL-6, IL-8, or IL-10 and IL-11 if you are in that area–no polling on it
October 24-25 ~1000 in each District with +/-3%
IL-8 Bean 50
McSweeney 45
IL-6
Duckworth 48
Roskam 47
The Daily Herald also has a new poll out for IL-6 and IL-8
Duckworth 42
Roskam 46
Bean 42
McSweeney 39
Scheuer 8
Turnout is going to determine the likely outcome in these races with the motivation factor being even in most of the polling for Constituent Dynamics.
In Iowa news, Boswell and Braley look safe with the new poll for IA-2 putting it at 50-48 with Leach in the lead. Again, another turnout race so those who might be in that area head to David’s Loebsack’s web site to help out.
October 30th, 2006 at
CD had favorable numbers for Seals in the last round, as well. So, what other polls are out there? I’ve only seen CD polls for the Seals campaign, and heard a little bit about Seals internal polling numbers. I do know that Kirk has been flooding my broadcast channels with split negative/positive ads. The negatives are hitting Seals for being outside of the district. In fact, that seems like Kirk’s strongest attack point. Seals does, in fact, live about 1.5 blocks from the district border.
So, what else are you hearing regarding Seals? Why is it that you conclude that CD is the outlier, besides the Seals campaign being a longshot?
October 30th, 2006 at
What other polls are out there? Why are you saying CD is an outlier for Seals/Kirk? I haven’t seen any other polls, except for the last CD, which was pretty favorable for Seals.
I do know that Kirk is blasting my near-the-loop tv with semi-attack ads (attacking seals for living outside the district, while listing some of Kirk’s accomplishments – Seals does live a whole 1.5 blocks outside the district). Plus Seals seems to be getting more coverage in the papers.
What else are you hearing that leads you to believe that the CD poll isn’t good?
October 30th, 2006 at
My hunch is that Constituent Dynamics polling tilts D. Right now they show Dems picking up 40 seats. But no other polling has put Angie Paccione ahead of Marilyn Musgrave or McNerney ahead of Richard Pombo. It’s way out of line with what any of the forecasters are predicting, or what any other polls show.
October 30th, 2006 at
In general, probably, but the other thing is the Perlmutter race and IL-08 they have more close than other pollsters.
October 30th, 2006 at
You can see most of the polling available at Pollster–here is the link for IL-10. Both D and R polls had Dan significantly lower
http://www.pollster.com/house.php#IL-10
October 31st, 2006 at
The (D) and (R) polls are pretty old and pre-date the TV ads, I believe. The recent CD poll is after a lot of TV. The older CD poll may pre-date the TV though.
But, I understand the impulse not to trust the polling. Kos said that they are also a new outfit, which I wasn’t previously aware of. So, no history, no idea how accurate they are. But the earlier poll is suspicious. That’s also a heavy D district, so Seals could be picking up support just be actually proclaiming he’s the Democrat in the race.
I want Dan to win, but I won’t count on it.
And the CD website is fun to play with.
October 31st, 2006 at
Yes, but the previous CD poll put Dan nearly even with Kirk even when taken at the same time as the partisan polling so that’s why I’m somewhat suspect. We’ve had a fairly long discussion on the outfit over at Capitol Fax.
It’s also a Democratic leaning district–not really heavily Democratic. That said, the people doing the poll are competent professionals, but this is their first big experience with IVR polls in an election so I’m skeptical they are nailing all of the races.
I will say I think Dan is closing in on Kirk, so people should absolutely volunteer for him and help him out–he’s a fantastic candidate.