It’s Breaking Fast
Sometime, probably in the next 48 hours though I’m bettting sooner than later, an Illinois Congressional race is going topsy turvy. It’s another pick-up for Dems. If you are observant around the net you’ll find the information. Mobilization is already occurring around the state to get ground troops.
Thanks Republicans.
Update: I closed comments to keep this from getting out of control.
October 18th, 2006 at
If, just talking hypothetically here, a particular Republican congressman decided in the next day or two to resign and drop off the ballot, could his party replace him under Illinois law?
October 18th, 2006 at
Nope, early voting has begun. At least I think I’m right–I’ll confirm.
And thank you–let’s keep this theoretical until it breaks.
October 18th, 2006 at
Hey bud,
Your “click here to advertise” link is no longer working.
October 18th, 2006 at
I think you mean the 11th, JackD.
October 18th, 2006 at
ASX–that’s an old ad link because Bean’s campaign bought it before the switchover. The top right strip with advertise here should be working (it is for me).
And yeah–Rich Miller at Capitol Fax has the most recent up for IL – 10–not sure of the reliability.
October 18th, 2006 at
C’mon man, delayed gratification is very difficult for me. Can you give a bigger hint what wingnut is toast and why? Is it salacious (I hope)?
October 18th, 2006 at
Let’s not go there quite yet….
October 18th, 2006 at
Ba’al,
The truth is out there.
Seriously, just hunt around kos you might find what you’re looking for.
October 18th, 2006 at
An RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics Poll 10/18 in Illinois 10: Kirk 46, Seals 44!
Other polls have Kirk with a good lead.
October 18th, 2006 at
KOS has a poll from Majority Watch for the 10th showing Kirk with 46% and Seals at 44%. KOS characterizes the numbers for this poll (and 5 others) as overly optimistic, but great news for Seals. I had the feeling Kirk was in trouble when he started running negative TV ads mentioning Seals, and mailing out ads touting Kirk’s purported “moderate” views. (Kirk is such a moderate that he supported the new law legalizing torture and eliminating habeas corpus rights)
October 18th, 2006 at
I dunno–all I’ve found so far seems like hearsay (if not totally invented). I’d love to see old-so-and-so out of a job, but it didn’t reek of credibility. Yet. Keeping my eyes peeled, though.
October 18th, 2006 at
Buck Turgidson:
I just went on KOS and could nothing even obliquely hinting at the purported news on another Republican resignation (although if I were a betting man I’d say it is Shimkus, for other reasons).
October 18th, 2006 at
the diary that you are looking for is now in the recent list by madeph. he names the guy and also said that he thought that 24 to 48 hours would be the time. many criticized him for no links but the last time he posted he had the sandra o’coonnor resignation story early and correct. he says that this is another good source but unable to name the source. despite the critics i’m betting on the madeph.
October 18th, 2006 at
I note for the record that a 2% lead is well within most MoEs, and would hardly count as a pickup to the extent that this is being described.
I also note that ArchPundit did not address the 11th (Weller), who has a two-month-old and could, therefore, legitimately withdraw for family reasons.
Hasert (14) is too much to hope. Shimkus (19) is probably the best bet–but it will all be moot soon anyway.
Maybe they could run Alan Keyes for the vacancy as a write-in?
October 18th, 2006 at
We have two hot districts here in Illinois,
Destrict 10, Haster vs Laesh
District 6, Rskam vs Duckworth
My bet is Hastert!
October 18th, 2006 at
Really, let’s not discuss the specific individual until it breaks. I understand the impulse, but for now…
October 18th, 2006 at
ArchPundit, did you get this rumor from the DailyKos diary or do you have a seperate source?
October 18th, 2006 at
Separate and from three different sources (today)—I didn’t know about the Kos bit until I sat down to post it.
October 18th, 2006 at
And sorry for the deletions, but I think Carl’s solution satisfies me and everyone wanting to know more.
October 18th, 2006 at
Legal tip for bloggers.
I got sued for defamation once and I learned a useful piece of info from an attorney.
A blogger can’t get sued for something someone else writes in the comments. The big companies got legislation passed that protects them.
For example, when I was sued for defamation Blogger (Google) wasn’t named as a co-defendent. I was responsible for what I wrote on their server.
The same law protects bloggers from being sued for comments posted on a blog.
This is one of the reasons I don’t like moderated comments. If I read a post and OK it for the comments I’m concerned I’ve become a party to the comment that may be defamatory.
October 18th, 2006 at
I don’t screen the comments until afterwards–and it’s more of an ethical thing with me. I can’t personally confirm the information, though I have very good sources. So I’m willing to do the tease, but not willing to put the name out there.
If nothing else, if I’m wrong, it would be unfair.
October 18th, 2006 at
Arch, I hope I didn’t give the impression I was second guessing your decision. Proviso Township has been at the forefront of using blogs to skirt libel law. I was sharing info that others may find useful.
October 18th, 2006 at
Oh no, you are perfectly fine and a good tip–my point was to further clarify how I was handling it.
October 18th, 2006 at
Rather than concentrate on individuals, I think it’s important to get out there and canvass this weekend. It’s only by reaching out to people and getting out the word, that we’re ever going to get our Candidates elected.