The Surprise of the Cycle

Cegelis. This is one that shouldn’t be entirely surprising given the Gore-Bush results in 2000: 44 Gore 53 Bush Other 3

If Cegelis wants another run, she should signal it soon, because this should be a DCCC targeted race. Keeping a longtime incumbent to 55, with changing demographics is a potential target. If Hyde steps down it’s an open race or if he sticks around–Crane redone. Dems are still at a disadvantage, but not a great one.

Is Bean the Next Flanagan?

No. Will she have a tough reelection race? Absolutely. Will she lose? Maybe.

Comparisons to Mike Flanagan who held the 5th CD seat between Rosty and the Blagorgeous are rather poor though. To start with Flanagan wasn’t even running a serious campaign before the last coupe weeks when some polling turned up an opportunity. Bean ran in a targeted race for a second time putting down some serious effort to get to know the residents and the institutions of the 8th CD. Flanagan started with nothing, but a protest vote of Rosty, Bean starts with two grassroots campaigns and a ton of voter contact.

Further demographics are different. Bean faces a Republican district, but not one that is overwhelmingly so. I don’t have the 2004 numbers yet for the CDs, but for 2000, the Gore Bush numbers in the current 5th were 66-34 Gore. In the 8th the numbers for Gore Bush were 56-42 and I think that area trended just a tad more Democratic meaning probably around 55-45. A five point swing isn’t easy, but it’s also not a 2-1 disadvantage as Flanagan faced.

It’ll be a top tier race by both the DCCC and the RNCC too, but a President in the second term in the off year is weakest and the amazing level of evangelical voters are unlikely to appear while Dems are still highly motivated and angry.

On top of that, Bean will be able to raise much more money and the Republicans will likely have a divisive primary. Why? Because that’s what Republicans do in Illinois these days.

About the Pic

One important thing to keep in mind is that while the conservative evangelicals (evangelical=/conservative as 25% voted for Kerry) aren’t the Republican Party, if about 25% of voters thought moral issues were number one priority and 25% were largely overlapped with white protestant evangelicals with some conservative Catholics thrown on top, what’s going to happen to Republican primaries when these folks come out in bigger numbers each primary than they have in the past? Better get Keyes out of here before he runs for something again.

In Illinois, the numbers were slightly lower due to demographics, but that also means that there are fewer Republicans in total.

Interesting stat is that as a nation as a whole more Democrats crossed to Bush than to Republicans for Kerry. In Illinois, that is reversed.

Exit Polling

Zorn has the right take on the exit polls, but let me offer just a bit more. The polls are pretty close to right once they were weighted for turnout which happens after the polls close. It’s not a huge deal, really.

It does renew my interest in doing a series on polling though and I think I have some outside folks who might be interested. In the interest of my sanity though I’m going to hold off for a bit and return to having a normal life.

That said, I’m also aiming for my Second half of November break so if you are interested in guest blogging drop me a line or post in comments. My biggest preference is non-blogging folks as of now, but will certainly consider those with other blogs. Partisanship is a factor, but certainly folks like OneMan are good reads so not the only factor.

If you have links to add send them to me with New Link in the subject. It’ll be a bit before I make changes, but if I have them handy, it helps.

And one of my favorite commenters has a new blog–Springfield Dem. But I lost the address so if he could send it to me, I’ll add it soon here.

From the Inbox

Senator Richard Durbin, D-IL, news conference today

3:45 pm (Eastern time) in Chicago, IL

to announce he has locked up the votes for democratic whip.

=====

Good news. I like Dorgan as a guy, but I think we can see the danger of having a red state Senator in a high visibility leadership position. Durbin’s been a hell of a fighter laterly and he’ll do a great job.

Writing the Kicker

Tribs story on the Keyes debacle and recriminations ends with this:

Privately, some Republicans were blaming Keyes’ presence near the top of the ballot for Crane’s defeat. But state Sen. Dave Syverson of Rockford, a state Central Committee member instrumental in bringing Keyes to Illinois, said he doesn’t think Keyes hurt the party.

McKenna appears to be headed for Party Head which is probably not a bad choice.

Mazullo gets the problem with Keyes at least.

U.S. Rep. Don Manzullo, the Republican from northwestern Illinois who played an instrumental role in importing Keyes, quietly apologized to fellow Republican members of the Illinois congressional delegation in recent weeks, according to GOP sources.

Presidential Turnout

In 2000
Bush 50456169
Gore 50996116
Nader 2831066
Total 104283351

2004 to date:
Bush 59117523
Kerry 55557584
Total 114675107

What is interesting is that Democrats picked up Nader’s voters and improved the number of voters. Bush increased his turnout remarkably. This wasn’t a swing voter election, it was a turnout election and evangelicals turned out.