As I understand it, the theory is in part based on the idea that some white people tell pollsters that they will be voting for the black candidate even though they have no intention of voting for a black person. It is believed that some whites feel guilty or pressured about race and thus give a “politically correct” response to the pollster. But when they enter the election booth, they let their true feelings show and vote against the black candidate. I don’t think that this scenario really applies in Illinois.

It seems to me that in Illinois, non-bigoted whites feel free to criticize black leaders and politicians with whom they disagree, e.g. Jesse Jackson or Carol Moseley Braun. In addition, I think that bigots in Illinois feel are less pressure by either political correctness or guilt to hide their negative feelings towards blacks and black politicians from pollsters (or anyone else for that matter). So I don’t think the presumption in the “racial slippage” theory — that polls don’t reflect whites true feelings regarding black candidates — holds true in Illinois. For better or for worse.

“AM”