The earlier leaked poll from Harstad for the Obama campaign confirms one reason why I put some stock in it–the Presidential numbers are in line with other polls:

A statewide poll taken for Illinois Democratic Senate hopeful Barack Obama pegs Kerry at 51 percent compared to 37 percent for Bush.

The internals in the poll are interesting: While women generally favor Kerry over Bush (53 percent for Kerry, 34 percent for Bush), the big divide comes between married and single females. Some 60 percent of single women would vote for Kerry; 26 percent for Bush.

Bush was running only 3 points ahead of Kerry in Downstate Illinois, defined in this poll as everyplace outside the Chicago media market, with most of Kerry’s muscle found among Chicago voters, who backed Kerry 73 percent to 12 percent for Bush.

Obama’s campaign shared with me pages from its poll about the presidential race in Illinois. The poll of 653 likely Illinois voters by Harstad Strategic Research was taken March 25-31 and has a 4 percent margin of error.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it again, if Ryan ties himself to Bush he’ll lose.