ArchPundit

So what I’m hearing in the background is that there are a bunch of undecideds in the recent polling that seem to be moving towards Obama, but they aren’t hardcore supporters. Instead they are moving towards him half-heartedly because he is the front-runner (last part is my interpretation). While they are swayable, good news begets good news and so Obama is doing better because he is, well, doing better. Obviously a campaign bombshell of some sort might change this, but in many ways this is what probably would have happened for Hull had he begun to pull away and not had the divorce scandal break. As people break, more people break with them. And the Corzine model would have propelled him to an unshakeable lead. Instead, his momentum was stopped and he is having to rebuild. He increasingly faces an uphill fight while Obama needs to ride the wave of good media.

I still think the wild card is downstate though with Hynes and Hull needing it to break one way or another.