ArchPundit

The Trib argues that the mild decreases in test scores for the Chicago Public Schools is nothing to get in a tizzy about.

Even in the era of higher accountability, there’s no need to panic over the slightly surprising dip in reading scores among Chicago public school children.

Not yet, at least.

Comparing one year to the previous doesn’t yield all that much wisdom. It’s the longer term trend lines that count. If scores continue to drop next year and the year after, then it’s time for a serious talk.

Here’s the more useful perspective:

The latest scores from the Iowa Test of Basic Skills show that 41 percent of elementary students scored at or above the national norm in reading comprehension. Compare that to five years ago, when only 36.9 percent of 3rd through 8th graders did as well. And compare that to a decade ago, when far fewer students met national norms in reading.

Any testing expert knows that plateaus in standardized test scores are typical. Early gains often follow serious reform efforts, with the most significant jumps made by the lowest-performing students.

Simply placing more importance on the test itself has a psychological effect on students to take it more seriously, and therefore, to perform better on it. Teachers also start adjusting their lesson plans to make sure they cover material they know will appear on the test. Those gains tend to level off, however, after a few years.

That phenomenon continued with the latest scores released Monday by Chicago Public Schools Chief Arne Duncan. The more than 10 percentage point drop in children scoring in the lowest-achieving quartile in both reading and math is significant and heartening. So is the more modest historic increase in those achieving at the top quartile.

Test scores can, in the aggregate, go up or down significantly in any given year without being representative of individual results. It is one of the ugly truths of testing that many don’t fully grasp. Tests are reasonable approximations, but any given test should not be focused on too much. The trend line over time is still excellent for Chicago. If it were to continue there would be a problem, but one-year’s results aren’t that important.

The real problem may start when LNCB starts hitting districts for small yearly differences.