Can the Dems challenge her name on the ballot for impaired mental capacity?
Some important side information:
If Moseley-Braun becomes a candidate, she may face another black candidate, state Sen. Barack Obama, D-Chicago, who already has begun raising money. But she said Obama told her earlier this year that if she got in the race, he would get out.
"We don’t know what Senator Moseley-Braun is going to do, but we’re in," countered Obama campaign manager Dan Shomon.
Obama is in. This is interesting, but I have to wonder if reality hits him if he realizes that his support in the African-American community will dissipate leaving him intellectual liberals and a far cry from a plurality he finds a way out.
Other Democrats, Blair Hull, a wealthy Chicago businessman, and Gery Chico, a former Chicago school board president, have also put together campaign teams. U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Chicago, Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes and Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas are also weighing entry into the field
Schakowsky won’t run. She has no machine backing and downstate she is an unknown. Her polling numbers will come back poor and she’ll realize it will be a waste. I don’t take here that seriously. She is a nice liberal and all, but largely unplugged from the combine and thus not a serious contender currently. Think Dawn Clark Netsch updated. Much like Netsch she is north shore liberal.
I’d be surprised if Pappas runs. She could be an interesting candidate, but Daley is pretty wishy washy on her. Madigan has no special relationship with her and she isn’t especially close to G-Rod so there isn’t much traction. The one possibility is that the party asks her to run to pull female votes from Mosely-Braun.
Dan Hynes is an up and comer, but my sense is this won’t be the right race for him. The original idea was he’d run in ’06 for governor, but with G-Rod that is out. He may have to move up to Secretary of State then and build his patronage army up and wait for 2010 Senate depending upon who has the seat or 2010 Governor with G-Rod moving to the Senate, or in his dreams the White House.
Hynes is remarkably talented and besides the horrifying bowl cut he sported in this years commercials he’ll move up soon enough. With a race including Mosely-Braun, Chico and Hull, he doesn’t have a niche–especially with Daley backing Hull. Chico gets a lot of corporate types and Latinos. Moseley-Braun gets African-Americans and some women. Hull takes the machine apparatus and lots of money he is willing to spend. Hynes is left with decent fundraising as a sitting Constitutional Officer, but not much of constituency to win. Look for a deal to be struck with him getting the machine backing for SOS in ’06 and a higher profile. This benefits Madigan, Daley and G-Rod so they’ll make it happen.
Chico is a connected guy with good money connections and probably Luis Guitierez’s support. He’ll pull in the Latino community and some Democratic business support. He should do well with labor (depending on Hynes choice) except possibly the Chicago Teachers Union who didn’t have much use for him as President of the Chicago Board of Education.
Hull is interesting because he isn’t well known statewide, but he has the money and connections to become well known pretty damn quickly. He is a version of the millionaire strategy the Democratic Party likes to use. Recruit a talented, TV friendly, candidate with several million dollars burning a hole in his ego and let him go at it. Given Petey is the same kind of guy, the issue is neutralized in the general election. It is hard to get a read on the guy given he doesn’t have much of an elective office track record, but the Daley thumbs up that seems to be accepted as truth means he is a serious challenger with some smart things to say.
Mosely-Braun has the black vote locked up and some women. However, after her disastrous first run, don’t expect suburban Democratic women to give a damn about her. She ran a sleazy office, a sleazy campaign and sleaze oozed from most of her actions. Her minimum is 24% in the primary, but more likely in the mid-to-high 30s. The machine, rightfully, thinks she is toxic, but doesn’t know how to go after her without offending African-Americans. Look to Jesse White, Illinois Secretary of State, for a possible machine offensive. He won’t denounce her and may even endorse her, but the question is does he as chief of patronage in the SOS office, go to work for her.
For those confused about why Secretary of State is such a big deal in Illinois look G-Ry and Edgar. Two former governors who moved to that post to make their gubernatorial runs. Why? SOS has the highest number of usable patronage posts (and G-Ry’s legal downfall) and your name is in every wallet. Past SOSs include Alan Dixon and Paul Simon as well.
SOS’s have had more success at moving up then other positions in Illinois. In many states the Attorney General has been the stepping stone, but in Illinois we see what just happened to J-Ry. Further in the past Roland Burris got rolled three times running for governor, Ty Fahner is in Chicago at Mayer, Platt and Brown, and Neil Hartigan got his butt kicked by Edgar, then the SOS.
The real question is can the machine clear the field for one serious candidate against Moseley-Braun. Hull has the early Daley backing, but Madigan and G-Rod Father-In-Law are keeping their cards close to their vest. Chico could do well in with some backing from them, but Chico-Moseley-Braun-Hull, gets awfully close to a Moseley-Braun victory. With Obama, there might be some room to still defeat her in the primary. Hynes-Hull-Chico leads to a Mosely-Braun win. Obama, while probably the brightest, has little chance with her in the race, though the machine could offer him a Constitutional Office in ’06 to run a credible race.
Hull-Moseley-Braun. Hull wins with at least 55% of the primary vote.
Chico-Moseley-Braun. Pick em. Slight advantage to Chico with Obama in the race.
Chico, Hull, Hynes all beat Fitzgerald with 10 points. Moseley-Braun loses by 6-20 depending on what new campaign finance scandal hits her. Obama wins a squeaker. Schakowsky loses by 10 and Pappas pick ’em (though a strong campaign by her wins).
One of the more interesting notes in the original article is this:
But Simon added, "She clearly has a residue of public relations problems," among them, her trips to Nigeria to visit that country’s brutal former military dictator, the late Gen. Sani Abacha.
It isn’t a good sign when Saint Paul takes a shot at you before the campaign begins.
Correction: I thought I posted this last night, but Paul Simon was not SOS. My mistake and thanks to Tiger for pointing it out.